ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

I'm expecting this to become a major hurricane down the line.

And your reasoning for that is?

Well if it IS going into the Caribbean at an Ivan latitude (unless it recurves) then it only has high heat, moist air, and low shear to feed off of. I haven't looked at what would be happening if it took a PR and NW track (sorry cycloneye ) so I guess I meant 'if it goes in to the Caribbean I expect it to be major'.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 52W S OF 18N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. THE WAVE
HAS LEFT BEHIND A 1008 MB SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE DURING THE DAY...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS MODEL NOW
MOVES THE LOW FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. MOISTURE FROM THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AND AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 94, 2008082100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 439W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

20/2345 UTC 12.0N 44.0W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[KWT]

Now down to 12N where the latest Dvorak numbers suggests it is, suspect that makes it highly likely tht this will be a Caribbean runner if reaches that far west without decaying totally.

[cycloneye]

The quickscat missed 94L but got ITCZ disturbance that is SE of 94L.I got to say that it looks more iimpressive than 94L.

[cheezyWXguy]

The quickscat missed 94L but got ITCZ disturbance that is SE of 94L.I got to say that it looks more iimpressive than 94L.

I believe that is a closed llc...future 95L > 94L

[alienstorm]

When will this beome Invest 95L - I say tomorrow AM....

[cycloneye]

You may think,94L is that big convective area,but its in front as the smaller area.

[cheezyWXguy]

94L is puny and weak

NEXT!!!!

maybe if its still in existence when it gets to the caribbean things will change. I have much higher hopes for the one behind it. Convection has been persistent for nearly 3 days with that one and it now has a closed llc.

[Patrick99]

That ridiculously broad cutoff low, in diving southwest, has killed 94L, IMO....I don't see it coming back. The big blob with LLC right behind it seems to have a better chance to me, as it may stay far enough away from the ULL.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The far Eastern Atlantic system will be Gustav.

[Sanibel]

The one behind it will probably eat it up.

[Clipper96]

The far Eastern Atlantic system will be Gustav.

Gustav. Good, solid Viking name. Hairy-chested cat-4 at least.

[ROCK]

The far Eastern Atlantic system will be Gustav.

I agree and I think the current EURO is seeing it the carib...

[Clipper96]

Good after-dark low-level wind loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

[RL3AO]

The area east of 94L has its own thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102636

[cycloneye]

Yes,what the above member said.Go to Talking Tropics Forum and discuss all about the area of interest behind 94L.

[fasterdisaster]

I honestly think these can both develop.