ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Gustywind]

000
FZNT23 KNHC 201446
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ089-202130-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE TO 55W FRI AND INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. LOW E OF THE AREA SHOULD MOVE INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN SAT AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN.

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808
Last Updated: 16:20 GMT le 20 août 2008 — Last Comment: 17:07 GMT le 20 août 2008
Elsewhere in the Tropics
Invest 94L has limited thunderstorm activity this morning. Dry air, and a future full of wind shear gives 94L a smaller and smaller chance of developing as the days pass.

[Dean4Storms]

94L still looks sick, but like Fay out there she doesn't seem to want to give up the fight.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 201743
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE DAY. ANY DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

[cheezyWXguy]

I agree Sanibel. It's already been 4 years since we've had a genuine CV storm. I wonder when the cap will come off.

Bertha ???

Dean??

[KWT]

Convection developing a little better again...

the thing to note is its heading towards the Caribbean, the poor conditions presently won't be there by the time this gets to 60W and it'll hit the warm waters of the Caribbean, wouldn't be surprised if this is another Dolly type system actually!

[Gustywind]

...THE ITCZ...
A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 12N42W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ DRIFTING W NEAR 5 KT. OVERALL PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

[Gustywind]

000 added to
AXNT20 KNHC 201801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

[KWT]

Knowing this season this system will wait till about 60W then tease us until about 70W and only then finally do something

Still saying all that these sorts of systems do need to be watched because if they get 48-72hrs they do have the water temps underneath to develop at this time of year.

[Gustywind]

Knowing this season this system will wait till about 60W then tease us until about 70W and only then finally do something

Never says that, in this part of the season anything can happen, you tkink it's weak and just after it's strong, just wait and don't let our guard down by the appareant calm before the... storm ( hope nothing from that too )...

[KWT]

I actually think this will eventually do something, its going to be a low rider I reckon looking at the dominant high to the north therefore I'd have thought its got to eventually get away from the ULL and make it to better conditions, but we shall see!

[cycloneye]

They keep tracking it at the ATCF Best Track,in this case the 18:00 UTC Update.Low with pressure down to 1007 mbs:

AL, 94, 2008082018, , BEST, 0, 125N, 435W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[KWT]

Yeah its still there and convection is still firing as well granted its not in a very faovrable location for strengthening right now, I find it hard to believe that the ULL will follow this till 70W however so think something will come from this probably as it gets towards the Caribbean, not buying those northerly tracks with a powerful high to the north of it right now.

[HURAKAN]

20/1745 UTC 12.0N 42.5W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

That places it right on the eastern side of the deep convection that has fired up, probably getting hit by shear I guess but as long as it keeps going like this I think something will come eventually IMO.

[latemodel25]

if it comes across to the west coast say the crystal river area, does anyone think we might be in for a rain event in say manatee sarasota county? or will we be dry again? we didnt get a drop here so far. thanks!

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like help is on the way for 94L. I saw yesterday when UKMET initialized 94L, but farther east, then moved it to the north and then back to the west. Perhaps this was with some interaction between the two systems.

If you take a look at this loop from the 12Z yesterday you can see what I'm talking about.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2008081912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Circulation is evident in the loop.