Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[rockyman]

From the 11am Discussion:

In the long range...some global models turn
Fay westward across North Florida and into the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. This scenario is not likely to occur but I would not rule
out the possibility yet given the good performance of the global
models.


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

[oyster_reef]

when are the next batch of model runs?

[PTrackerLA]

Can't wait to see the 12z runs, if the GFS and EURO back off their gulf solutions then maybe we can finally start putting the hurricane in the gulf idea to bed. The new NHC track has shifted northward quite a bit starting Sunday after hugging the coast of the panhandle up until then. However, the 5 day cone is still ridiculously large encompassing all of Louisiana now up to southern Missourri and Kentucky. Madness.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.sh ... e#contents

[Thunder44]

Out to 30 hours the GFS keeps Fay inland over FL:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Comanche]

where do I go to get the frame by frame release of the GFS??

[Wx_Warrior]

So far 30h GFS looks same

[Wx_Warrior]

48

[PTrackerLA]

48HRS looks just onshore in the big bend of Florida. Strengthening gulf solution could be over!

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep....trough stronger..I had a feeling those last runs weren't true to form.

[Dean4Storms]

THat run looks suspicious, it has the center jumping all over north Florida South then North, then east and then west again.

[Pearl River]

It has her at the coast south of Mobile at 96 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_096.shtml

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm in agreement. I'm sure some didn't like the fact she wasn't in the GOM long.

Still thin Gustav and Hanna will be boogers in Sept.

[Dean4Storms]

When does the 12z Euro start to come out?

[Meso]

19:15 GMT

[N2Storms]

[quote="Dean4Storms"]THat run looks suspicious, it has the center jumping all over north Florida South then North, then east and then west again.[/quote]



Dean, have you looked at TWC projected path...they seem to have adjusted theirs more southward since this morning...I thought they towed the "party line" and basically used the NHC's but I don't see where the NHC has made any adjustments to their forecast track...I could be wrong but if you haven't already looked at it

[tolakram]

Dean, have you looked at TWC projected path...they seem to have adjusted theirs more southward since this morning...I thought they towed the "party line" and basically used the NHC's but I don't see where the NHC has made any adjustments to their forecast track...I could be wrong but if you haven't already looked at it

They haven't been. I watched the tropical update last night (website) and they predicted a coast hugger or turn before the coast unlike the track of the NHC.

[KWT]

Well looking at the models they suggest possibly something more on the right hand side at least for the first few days, that track looks close to the middle point of the decent models though.

[Ivanhater]

New Euro still in the Gulf on Sunday, awaiting output around 2..this is going to be close, in this case juse 30 miles can make a huge difference

[Wx_Warrior]

Ivan, get ready for some rain!

[cpdaman]

wrong thread