ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Gustywind]

20/1145 UTC 12.2N 41.3W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
racing west and t numbers down to "too weak"

[msbee]

And the NHC continues to be really conservative on this. Maybe they are too busy eating crow as a result of Fay?

Is this a joke? That's NOT a Tropical Depression? Or at least Red on the TWO?


NHC is really fooling around...if that convection expands this may intensify to a TS before they even give it notice.

This is stupid.

I mean the fact that the NHC doesn't upgrade this let alone give it red on the TWD. It's not going away, it's been stable for 2 days, quikscat says closed, so it is pretty dumb.

But yeah it does look very good. It should have a red by now though. I know why they didnt though.

Yeah I really think the NHC have taken thier eye off the ball with this one

The above comments - and similar comments (including those of S2K moderators who were talking about Fay when it was still an invest!) in the thread about 92L before it was upgraded to a TS are the reason that I read this forum mainly for entertainment. I don't pay attention to any predictions other than those from Pro Mets.

NHC has a big responsibility and it's their job to inform the general public. Whenever a system is upgraded to a TD or named, this has an enormous impact.
I've been following the tropics for 7 years - that's how long I've been living in Puerto Rico. The NHC has been doing a great job as far as I'm concerned - their info was as accurate as it could be.

If I would have listened to all the yelling about upgrading 92L when it was approaching Puerto Rico last week, I would have put the hurricane shutters on the windows. Instead I was sitting on the porch, enjoying the rain and the light breeze.

Apart from the fact that whining that a system should be upgraded doesn't help - I'm sure the NHC forecasters don't take the opinion of S2K posters in account when doing their job - I seem to remember that it's against the S2K policy to bash the NHC and other pro mets...

Oh uhm.. did you all notice that 94L has been 'downgraded' to yellow?

Thanks! Perfect comments!

[Sanibel]

I think that Quickscat is the one behind it. Our 94L looks too wrecked in circulation to form now. Think I made a mistake saying it was a go. If it refires it is telling you it still has something - but this has really weakened to the point that I would back off it until it does. Loop looks like easterly shear blowing the tops west. Satellite appearance is very weak and poor.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think that Quickscat is the one behind it. Our 94L looks too wrecked in circulation to form now. Think I made a mistake saying it was a go. If it refires it is telling you it still has something - but this has really weakened to the point that I would back off it until it does. Loop looks like easterly shear blowing the tops west. Satellite appearance is very weak and poor.

Normally its good news but the theme is stay weak and pound the US..

[HURAKAN]

Down but not out.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Conditions at 41026 as of
1400 GMT on 08/20/2008:

Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 °F
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.1 kts
Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW (250 deg)

The circulation appears to be still present.

[cheezyWXguy]

And the NHC continues to be really conservative on this. Maybe they are too busy eating crow as a result of Fay?

Is this a joke? That's NOT a Tropical Depression? Or at least Red on the TWO?


NHC is really fooling around...if that convection expands this may intensify to a TS before they even give it notice.

This is stupid.

I mean the fact that the NHC doesn't upgrade this let alone give it red on the TWD. It's not going away, it's been stable for 2 days, quikscat says closed, so it is pretty dumb.

But yeah it does look very good. It should have a red by now though. I know why they didnt though.

Yeah I really think the NHC have taken thier eye off the ball with this one

The above comments - and similar comments (including those of S2K moderators who were talking about Fay when it was still an invest!) in the thread about 92L before it was upgraded to a TS are the reason that I read this forum mainly for entertainment. I don't pay attention to any predictions other than those from Pro Mets.

NHC has a big responsibility and it's their job to inform the general public. Whenever a system is upgraded to a TD or named, this has an enormous impact.
I've been following the tropics for 7 years - that's how long I've been living in Puerto Rico. The NHC has been doing a great job as far as I'm concerned - their info was as accurate as it could be.

If I would have listened to all the yelling about upgrading 92L when it was approaching Puerto Rico last week, I would have put the hurricane shutters on the windows. Instead I was sitting on the porch, enjoying the rain and the light breeze.

Apart from the fact that whining that a system should be upgraded doesn't help - I'm sure the NHC forecasters don't take the opinion of S2K posters in account when doing their job - I seem to remember that it's against the S2K policy to bash the NHC and other pro mets...

Oh uhm.. did you all notice that 94L has been 'downgraded' to yellow?

Lol why is my quote up there? In that post I was very understanding of the nhc and suggesting reasons why they didnt either go to red or upgrade...and I was right too. No consistency. Honestly I am beginning to wonder if this will ever develop. If it still exists in 2 days then I might bring up development again.

[gerrit]

The circulation appears to be still present.

That's why it's still under investigation.

[HURAKAN]

The circulation appears to be still present.

That's why it's still under investigation.

Not exactly, a blob of clouds in a tropical wave can be under investigation. It's under investigation because the NHC feels it has a chance to develop.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think that Quickscat is the one behind it. Our 94L looks too wrecked in circulation to form now. Think I made a mistake saying it was a go. If it refires it is telling you it still has something - but this has really weakened to the point that I would back off it until it does. Loop looks like easterly shear blowing the tops west. Satellite appearance is very weak and poor.

Normally its good news but the theme is stay weak and pound the US..

I agree. Storms this year don't get strong, they just stay as ugly tropical storms or weak hurricanes and annoy the hell out of us.........I know we've had an active year so far, but I'm still curious why these waves just seem to have a horrible time of getting going.?..Do you remember years ago when you use to look out at the atlantic during these last couple of months of hurricane season and see a Cat2+ spinning out there somewhere?? Wow, conditions sure have changed..

[senorpepr]

Are you guys kidding me? All this fuss over this system. Maybe I'm silly, but I've yet to see anything that would make me want to upgrade to a TD. Maybe some of you guys have an addiction or something.

[Sanibel]

I see that big arm of circulation still swirling. It is closer to 42-43W.

Perhaps a ridge has subsided onto it and is preventing convection. If it has something it will refire after it moves a little more west and out from under the suppressing influences.

[Blown Away]

Seems like systems have a problem developing in the MDR.

[Sanibel]

Normally its good news but the theme is stay weak and pound the US..

Normally I would say "exactly right" to what you said, but like I said with Fay when it was still a cloud burst, the Atlantic is showing that it isn't really boosting storms that well. I think if Fay stayed over water the whole time it still would have remained relatively low in intensity because of those conditions. Fay had plenty of time to intensify under Cuba while over water and didn't. This one is also struggling and stuttering just like Dolly. The only place that has shown favorability (besides Bertha) is the west Gulf - far away from the rest of the Atlantic. Which leads to my point that the Atlantic has shown unseasonable troughs above the GOM with weak supporting conditions. I suspect we could see the summer CONUS jet finally assume a relaxed mode in September and have more favorable conditions open up in that month. Or maybe this 2008 pattern will last the whole season. One or the other. We haven't seen a big Atlantic roller barrel into the east coast of Florida in years. The 2004 hurricanes were close but not of the Great Okeechobee storm level. I think the pattern we are seeing would allow for that this year if those favorable September conditions snap in place. A big hurricane that rolls straight in from the Atlantic above the islands and hits Florida.

[Scorpion]

I agree Sanibel. It's already been 4 years since we've had a genuine CV storm. I wonder when the cap will come off.

[HURAKAN]

I agree Sanibel. It's already been 4 years since we've had a genuine CV storm. I wonder when the cap will come off.

Bertha ???

[Category 5]

I agree Sanibel. It's already been 4 years since we've had a genuine CV storm. I wonder when the cap will come off.

Bertha ???

She's easy to forget, after all she didn't hit the U.S.

[HURAKAN]

I'm missing something here. Convection increases during DMIN and decreases during DMAX. Another crazy disturbance!!!

[Category 5]

I'm missing something here. Convection increases during DMIN and decreases during DMAX. Another crazy disturbance!!!

Fay struggles over water, strengthens over land. This is all becoming routine.