Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2901 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 20, 2008 2:04 am

Man the GFS and EURO just refuse to give up! It's really hard to ignore after this much consistency. Interesting times ahead.
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#2902 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:06 am

Yeah they really are being very stubborn in bringing Fay into the gulf and the high resolution models are starting to trend a little to the west as well now.
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#2903 Postby freeroam » Wed Aug 20, 2008 6:28 am

Morning, still in awe of this "THING" Fay. I read back on some post somewhere. Was here, have read soooo many past few days that some front or low coming out of Texas would push her east again after she had made the west turn. Around MS/AL. Anyone recall this? I don't see fay making anywhere near LA/TX (if that's the case). But again I certainly, really, can't be sure, not positive...etc. :spam:
KWT wrote:Yeah they really are being very stubborn in bringing Fay into the gulf and the high resolution models are starting to trend a little to the west as well now.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2904 Postby Steve H. » Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:59 am

Speaking of the Euro, it has Fay #2 south of Cuba at the end of the run. :roll:
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#2905 Postby O Town » Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:13 am

:uarrow: The models are as confused as everyone else..... :lol:
Good ol' fickle Fay.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2906 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:15 am

With Fay hugging the coast, the 12z models will be very interesting. Nothing like another day of being distracted at work. :lol:
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#2907 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:17 am

HWRF and GFDL both drag her thru the panhandle...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2908 Postby Sabanic » Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:17 am

PTrackerLA wrote:With Fay hugging the coast, the 12z models will be very interesting. Nothing like another day of being distracted at work. :lol:


Ain't that the truth :lol:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2909 Postby sunny » Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:19 am

PTrackerLA wrote:With Fay hugging the coast, the 12z models will be very interesting. Nothing like another day of being distracted at work. :lol:


Yes indeed!!!
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#2910 Postby nashrobertsx » Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:21 am

can someone post the new 12z spagetti runs?
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#2911 Postby O Town » Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:24 am

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2912 Postby tronbunny » Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:26 am

If, and only if, the center makes it off shore and it stays together on crossing #2 and makes it to panhandle, that would make 4 Florida landfalls.

Anyone ever hear of that?

Won't the models have some difficulty with as much on-shore/inland data as the situation is gathering?
Meaning, how well do they deal with 1/2 marine 1/2 land interaction?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2913 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:06 am

If her movement is actually trending south as suggested in another thread, she might pick up more steam from the Everglades area before heading back west to the GOM
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2914 Postby shah8 » Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:16 am

the guy who does xkcd.com should be a forcaster...

http://www.xkcd.com/453/

He had the model right from the get go, for BOTH Bertha and Fay!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2915 Postby Comanche » Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:27 am

Is she moving at all?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2916 Postby tronbunny » Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:34 am

shah8 wrote:the guy who does xkcd.com should be a forcaster...

http://www.xkcd.com/453/

He had the model right from the get go, for BOTH Bertha and Fay!


Hmm, I think FSU should add that one to it's consensus.
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Re:

#2917 Postby x-y-no » Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:37 am

Heh ... I may live to regret my words ...

On Sunday afternoon, I wrote:

x-y-no wrote:That Euro run is nothing short of bizarre. It has Fay over western Cuba at 24 hours, approaching Naples at 48, emerging near Ft. Pierce day 3, Sitting still just offshore days 4 and 5 while intensifying, then taking off across the northern peninsula day 6, finally making a third landfall near Apalachicola day 7.

I'll eat my shorts if that happens. :D



Anyone got a good recipe for boxer shorts? :lol:
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Re: Re:

#2918 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:40 am

x-y-no wrote:Heh ... I may live to regret my words ...

On Sunday afternoon, I wrote:

x-y-no wrote:That Euro run is nothing short of bizarre. It has Fay over western Cuba at 24 hours, approaching Naples at 48, emerging near Ft. Pierce day 3, Sitting still just offshore days 4 and 5 while intensifying, then taking off across the northern peninsula day 6, finally making a third landfall near Apalachicola day 7.

I'll eat my shorts if that happens. :D



Anyone got a good recipe for boxer shorts? :lol:


I looked for this for an hr last night! LOL...How perfect was the euro on that run!
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#2919 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:44 am

NHC still not biting on GOMEX solution:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad
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Re: Re:

#2920 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:46 am

x-y-no wrote:Heh ... I may live to regret my words ...

On Sunday afternoon, I wrote:

x-y-no wrote:That Euro run is nothing short of bizarre. It has Fay over western Cuba at 24 hours, approaching Naples at 48, emerging near Ft. Pierce day 3, Sitting still just offshore days 4 and 5 while intensifying, then taking off across the northern peninsula day 6, finally making a third landfall near Apalachicola day 7.

I'll eat my shorts if that happens. :D



Anyone got a good recipe for boxer shorts? :lol:


I don't have one, but I'd imagine step #1 is "Rinse repeatedly before preparing."
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