Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Dean4Storms]

I have a feeling the models aren't handling the high pressure building in well. Probably under-estimating the strength. I expect they will start to shift more to the west and south tomorrow once the trof is gone, which it is in the process of doing right now and get better feedback on the ridge. Just in my non-professional opinion.

True enough, I can't imagine all the Global models could be wrong, the GFS, EURO, UKMET are all much further southwest.

[ronjon]

18Z HWRF and GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008081918-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081918-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[deltadog03]

Globals could be right, but in this case they can DEF. be wrong....All depends on timing. If this gets into the water in the next 6-7 hours...IF** then fay would be nearly 10 hours or so ahead of when those globals showed it...(I Am discounting the 12z euro today...intialized waay too far south)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

18Z HWRF and GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008081918-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081918-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

As it is still moving north-northeastward more or less I'm starting to think that those models are on to something. In the nhc will once again take home the gold. Chances are fallling for this making it into the gulf.

[Dean4Storms]

Well I hate it for Jax. to Brunswick, GA but we've had enough over here on the Gulf Coast and they have escaped for a LONG time, hope those two are right!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Delta, what impact would that have if fay is 10 hrs or so ahead of schedule.

[deltadog03]

IF** those are to hold true...I think GA has only had 3 hurricane landfalls in history..lol

[KWT]

Yeah looking at the GFDL the track seems to be pretty much bang on basedon the current motion over the past 3hrs, maybe a little too quick but thats about it.

Also note that both the two high resolution has this getting down to the mid-low 950's in terms of pressure and given this will have a good 36hrs over water if these models are right so it could well occur.

[ronjon]

Globals could be right, but in this case they can DEF. be wrong....All depends on timing. If this gets into the water in the next 6-7 hours...IF** then fay would be nearly 10 hours or so ahead of when those globals showed it...(I Am discounting the 12z euro today...intialized waay too far south)

Well, the 18Z GFS has Fay exiting off Melbourne at 8 AM tomorrow versus 2 AM for both the HWRF and GFDL. We'll know tomorrow which one was correct. Still, 6 hrs difference doesn't seem all that large - Fay now moving at a puny 3 kts (4 mph) per hour. 4 mph and Fay is still 40-50 miles from shore - seems maybe the GFS might be right.

[deltadog03]

Delta, what impact would that have if fay is 10 hrs or so ahead of schedule.

More time over water and maybe further north and east of where the globals have it...

[deltadog03]

Globals could be right, but in this case they can DEF. be wrong....All depends on timing. If this gets into the water in the next 6-7 hours...IF** then fay would be nearly 10 hours or so ahead of when those globals showed it...(I Am discounting the 12z euro today...intialized waay too far south)

Well, the 18Z GFS has Fay exiting off Melbourne at 8 AM tomorrow versus 2 AM for both the HWRF and GFDL. We'll know tomorrow which one was correct. Still, 6 hrs difference doesn't seem all that large - Fay now moving at a puny 3 kts (4 mph) per hour. 4 mph and Fay is still 40-50 miles from shore - seems maybe the GFS might be right.

Thats 2pm....just pushing of the coast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

[GTStorm]

That would be an outlier from everything else we've seen from 18z runs.

well Dean, the GFDL seems to at least be falling in line, all be it slower..it was hanging on going to the northeast

The 12z run brought Fay in around the FL/GA border, so it has shifted north again if it is bringing her in around Savannah, lets hope it is right and all the others are wrong.

No, let's don't.

18Z GFDL looks to bring it in around Brunswick from what I can see, unless I am looking at an older run. Of course, it's still too far out to agonize over 80 miles of coastline.

[ronjon]

Globals could be right, but in this case they can DEF. be wrong....All depends on timing. If this gets into the water in the next 6-7 hours...IF** then fay would be nearly 10 hours or so ahead of when those globals showed it...(I Am discounting the 12z euro today...intialized waay too far south)

Well, the 18Z GFS has Fay exiting off Melbourne at 8 AM tomorrow versus 2 AM for both the HWRF and GFDL. We'll know tomorrow which one was correct. Still, 6 hrs difference doesn't seem all that large - Fay now moving at a puny 3 kts (4 mph) per hour. 4 mph and Fay is still 40-50 miles from shore - seems maybe the GFS might be right.

Thats 2pm....just pushing of the coast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

LOL, I think you're parsing now Delta. GFDL just off the coast at 18 hrs. I agree there's a difference but I just don't see 12 hrs, more like 6.

[KWT]

Should be noted that the GFS still has this in the Atlantic for a good 36-48hrs or so before coming inland again...and the HWRf which has a similar eventual landfall location is in agreement with that sortt of timeframe, the GFDL give its about 12hrs longer thanks to a slightly more easterly motion.

[deltadog03]

hahahah....ITs all good...Might only be 6 hours!! haha or 10 either way...interested to see what the 00z gfs will show tonight..(euro too)

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey Delta, couple more question for you. On timing issues when do you see the high building in enough to turn Fay to the w, nw, nnw etc.? Also how strong do you think the high will be, enough to keep her on a westward track? And someone else mentioned earlier that another high is forecast to come down from canada and could possibly merge with this one to put another block on whatever is left by then? Do you see this? Thanks for your responses.

[deltadog03]

Depends on timing...Thats gonna be the big question...I guess she is on here nightly stall job...

[tailgater]

please no oil traders.
http://i492.photobucket.com/albums/rr28 ... 1219197947

[Pigsnibble]

Tailgater.....not allowed to enter the posted link.

[Ivanhater]

00z NAM 84 hours