Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

18Z 120 hours..

[ronjon]

120 hrs - northern gulf coast. IH you beat me to it.

[KWT]

I'd imagine that close to the coast it wouldn't strengthen anyway as the amount of mid level dry air it would injest would probably hinder it alot.

I'm far more interested in what this does in the Atlantic, I'm currently believeing the GFDL to be honest.

[Ivanhater]

Bit further west than the 12z..

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic=And look at 94L in the Bahamas.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Bit further west than the 12z..

THE FUNNY THING HERE IS IT HAS COUNT EM..7 SYSTEMS IN THE ATLANTIC...

[Dean4Storms]

Yes, think about it this way...(IT is obviously possible that it goes back into the gom) but, GFS and NAM sit this in this very spot its in NOW, for another 24 hours...Do yall think that it is really going to do that?

They sit it where she is now, but move her a bit offshore before they turn her around.
It may sit off the east coast for a time close to that once it gets off the east coast. I don't see where whether it stalls now or just 75-100 miles NE of its current location would matter once it gets turned back by the ridge, true it may cross the coast just north of Canaveral and exit just north of Tampa, but I don't see where if she stalls now or tonight or tomorrow matters that much with the slow forward speed she is moving with.

[deltadog03]

Well, you have to remember...IF its further NE or NNE than the GFS indicates....then stalls...Its gonna stall further NW of where the GFS has it...

[Dean4Storms]

True, but a turn back even WSW wouldn't be out of the question in this situation either, so who knows. It is going to be interesting.

[deltadog03]

Oh, I am DEF. with ya...knowbody really knows...It sucks to be on TV and tell people that tho!!

[Dean4Storms]

I think some of how this unfolds will depend on her strength, if she is above 1000mb when the ridge hits her she may do a 180.

[Jason_B]

Oh, I am DEF. with ya...knowbody really knows...It sucks to be on TV and tell people that tho!!

Your a TV met?

[Dean4Storms]

Oh, I am DEF. with ya...knowbody really knows...It sucks to be on TV and tell people that tho!!

LOL! Not good to be you right now?

[Raebie]

So if she slows down, stalls abit, will that ULH be so much in play? In other words, could she track further north than the models are currently suggesting?

[Dean4Storms]

So if she slows down, stalls abit, will that ULH be so much in play? In other words, could she track further north than the models are currently suggesting?

If she slows more or stalls soon it will mean that the ridge is moving in sooner and she'll likely react by turning back westward sooner. The longer the delay in slowing or stalling the further north she gets before she turns back west meaning a north Florida or Georgia landfall.

[deltadog03]

Oh, I am DEF. with ya...knowbody really knows...It sucks to be on TV and tell people that tho!!

LOL! Not good to be you right now?

LOL I know...I have been talking about fay for the last 7 days now...haha

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just got logged on and still see a westward consensus. Just for a little added info our local met said their in house models (that he said were pretty accurate) were showing Fay making it offshore just off Melbourne, Fl. and stalling. Then hooking west or even wsw at times depending on how strong the high is and moving into the central gulf. He gave Wed night/Thurs morn the time as to when we would really be able to tell where Fay will be moving west at. BTW the older guy with glasses on TWC who does severe weather said she is already starting to slow way down. He is plotting her on radar moving nne at 5 mph. Sign the trof is already moving by and currents starting to collapse.?

[KWT]

The thing is this system is faster then the global models, therefore is going to get a good bit further to the NE then the models prog when it does hit the breaks and turns basck westward, meaning that unless it does track WSW it will probably turn inland and stay there.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the expansion westward of the outflow today is a sign of a change in direction coming.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Dean what do you think the chances of Fay actually getting turned wsw moving in the gulf? That high looks pretty strong and she looks to be slowing down a good bit as of late. Also as Steve posted esarlier today there is another high progged to move down from canada towards early next week it looks and reinforce the block. This is just getting crazy.