Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Cristina]

Is there any possibility Fay will come to Atlanta?

[jdray]

12Z GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081912-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

That would suck tremendously for us.
http://www.coj.net/Departments/Fire+and ... eck.htm#32

Jacksonville Municipal Stadium (home of the Jaguars) would be under 10 feet of water.

[jdjaguar]

Just went to CostCo and picked up a generator, 2 dozen batteries and some portable lamps.

JEA will be taking their sweet time getting power back on after it goes out,

[Ivanhater]

New Euro out...not Good

[Sabanic]

New Euro out...not Good

Hey IH that is not good at all!

[GeneratorPower]

Uh oh. Looks like the EURO is forecasting a generator shortage.

[perk]

It also has what i think is 94L south of Cuba on 8/29/08.

[Dean4Storms]

Well we have the Euro and the GFS pretty much on the same page now for several runs, if I start to see the turn back west before Fay reaches 30N we can pretty much bet on trouble.

[Sabanic]

Well we have the Euro and the GFS pretty much on the same page now for several runs, if I start to see the turn back west before Fay reaches 30N we can pretty much bet on trouble.

Definitely

[Brent]

Is there any possibility Fay will come to Atlanta?

Definitely a possibility. I seriously doubt winds will be an issue but there could be flooding rains. A lot of uncertainty and things can change but right now there will be at least some effects this weekend.

[TSmith274]

I've been out of town for two days. What the hell happened here? If what I'm seeing is correct... this isn't good. What intensity is the Euro and GFS forecasting in the northern gulf? Landfall in Mobile? I'd review it myself, but it's blocked at work. Somebody help me out.

[oyster_reef]

I've been out of town for two days. What the hell happened here? If what I'm seeing is correct... this isn't good. What intensity is the Euro and GFS forecasting in the northern gulf? Landfall in Mobile? I'd review it myself, but it's blocked at work. Somebody help me out.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

[Ivanhater]

I've been out of town for two days. What the hell happened here? If what I'm seeing is correct... this isn't good. What intensity is the Euro and GFS forecasting in the northern gulf? Landfall in Mobile? I'd review it myself, but it's blocked at work. Somebody help me out.

Both GFS and Euro show a pretty powerful Hurricane in the NGOM..GFS has NW Florida, UKMET around Mobile and Euro looks like costal Mississippi...

[TSmith274]

Thanks to both of you... that helps!

[Steve]

Hey T,

It goes like this - the high that we were talking about last week coming out of Canada to set up a block or a trap appears primed to indeed do that as the upper trough lifts out and the Bermuda/SW Atlantic Ridge builds back Westward. So what happens is that Fay moves offshore and hits the Atlantic +/- somewhere around Jacksonville/GA Coast and sits there and stews for a little while. Then it gets shunted back to the West underneath the block and with the high pressure building back in from the east. This causes Fay to either move up toward SC/NC, sit around Georgia and rain, retrograde back over the SE US (between 30-34N) or possibly slip back into the Gulf of Mexico and landfall again somewhere along the Northern Gulf.

What ends up happening is anyone's guess, but it's going to most likely blow-back westward/retrograde and rain on someone. Whether it regenerates into a TS, Hurricane or IH is anyone's guess and will partly be a factor of whether or not it gets back in the water.

What I find interesting, and it's probably just me since I was the only one talking about last Monday, is that yet another high is coming down from Canada to reinforce this one. And if that one is strong, it would continue to block Fay and give her a Part IV, V or VI depending on where we're at that point. Chances are better for an additional block if or when Fay gets a little further west (say at least to the mid-Panhandle) as that High will be settling in a little farther west than the one that's likely to provide the initial block.

Not saying any of this is going to happen, but it's all a possibility. Who knows who is going to get the bulk of the rainfall beyond the southern half of the Florida Peninsula? There are a lot of people in North Georgia and then SC/NC that are in extreme drought and could use several inches of rain to help offset that. This was my call on the first move back west last week. Not sure if they'll get it from the storm retrograding back off the Atlantic or perhaps once it does begin to move out from it passing by.

JMO and nothing official. Stay tuned to the local NWS, NHC and other professional meteorologists. If, however, you want to speculate a bit, Steve is willing to play that game.

Steve

[latemodel25]

wow, i ve recieved apprx 1/16 of an inch of rain and experienced an awesome wind gust of about 2mph.(parrish fl) thats about it. i must say it was nice having the day off though.

[njweather]

Hmm, model consensus on a EGOM entry is unsettling to say the least...

I guess the question now is, will it trend north, over land (Alabama), or south, over the warm waters of the Gulf...

[hsvwx]

Interesting to see that the GFS ensemble mean is now way out in the Gulf Mexico. HPC stated at one time that that was one reason not to believe the GFS solution of coming into the Gulf (because ensemble mean did not have it), but wonder what the reasoning will be this time. Only time will tell...hopefully it will not be too bad!

[Ivanhater]

Interesting to see that the GFS ensemble mean is now way out in the Gulf Mexico. HPC stated at one time that that was one reason not to believe the GFS solution of coming into the Gulf (because ensemble mean did not have it), but wonder what the reasoning will be this time. Only time will tell...hopefully it will not be too bad!

Hey hsvwx, I was looking for the model plot of the GFS ensembles, can you post it?

[Mississippi Storm Magnet]

The LBAR is the worst model out there. If the LBAR is coming at you, that means you should be safe cause it is always wrong.

Yeah, we thought the same too in August 2005. Idiotic LBAR. I guess a blind squirrel found its nut.