Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[PTrackerLA]

This is what the 5th or 6th run in a row that shows a similar solution? Have to pay some attention to it...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Can someone please post the latest spaghetti plot of the models?

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

Better agreement than yesterday...

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS has kept this track solution pretty much all day yesterday and 3 runs thus far today, bringing her into the Gulf and then toward the Panhandle, I'm getting concerned.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Let's hope the GFS is wrong...and especially that that BAMM model doesn't pan out. Boy would that one be horrid! Can you imagine how strong it could get?!

[typhoon_tim]

yikes... i'm in myrtle beach and that LBAR solution looks frightening... that's a lot of time over the warm Atlantic for Fay before barrelling into the Grand Strand... in 3 days. luckily, it's definitely an outlier... what's the deal with the LBAR? what is that model good at picking up on?

[txwatcher91]

yikes... i'm in myrtle beach and that LBAR solution looks frightening... that's a lot of time over the warm Atlantic for Fay before barrelling into the Grand Strand... in 3 days. luckily, it's definitely an outlier... what's the deal with the LBAR? what is that model good at picking up on?

Nothing

[RL3AO]

yikes... i'm in myrtle beach and that LBAR solution looks frightening... that's a lot of time over the warm Atlantic for Fay before barrelling into the Grand Strand... in 3 days. luckily, it's definitely an outlier... what's the deal with the LBAR? what is that model good at picking up on?

The LBAR is the worst model out there. If the LBAR is coming at you, that means you should be safe cause it is always wrong.

[ronjon]

Here's the full one week loop of the 12Z GFS. This solution has the support of the 00Z Euro and UKMET also.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008081912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Ivanhater]

Different version of 12z GFS..

[ronjon]

Latest Pasta Plots.

[ktulu909]

So instead of the "cone of doom" this might as well be considered a "ball of doom"

[ronjon]

Latest 12Z UKMET.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2008081912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[ronjon]

12Z GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081912-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[oyster_reef]

Gulf wave model

http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW- ... /swell/in/

[ronjon]

12Z HWRF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008081912-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[cpdaman]

12Z HWRF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008081912-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

that should be the equivilant of 5 cups of coffee for those in NE florida

[plazaglass]

I'm in Jax, three blocks from the oceanfront.

Having coffee now ..... many more gallons to go. (Might ought to save some for the generator.)

Seriously, getting concerned about a third landfall here.

[Ivanhater]

Just looked at the overnights Euro..new one should come out in about 15 min