Probabilities

GalvestonDuck · #1 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 4:53 pm

000
WTNT74 KNHC 142037
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

28.3N 95.6W 42 X X X 42 PORT O CONNOR TX 32 X 1 X 33
28.7N 97.3W 23 3 1 1 28 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 17 5 1 X 23
29.0N 99.1W 7 13 3 1 24 BROWNSVILLE TX 2 5 3 2 12
MMSO 238N 982W X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 91W 3 1 X 1 5
NEW IBERIA LA 3 2 X 1 6 GULF 28N 93W 99 X X X 99
PORT ARTHUR TX 17 1 1 X 19 GULF 28N 95W 52 X X X 52
GALVESTON TX 34 X X X 34 GULF 27N 96W 19 2 X 1 22
FREEPORT TX 38 X X X 38 GULF 25N 96W X 2 2 2 6

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED
C FROM 1AM WED TO 1PM WED
D FROM 1PM WED TO 1PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 5:04 pm

That translates to a BULLSEYE ON FREEPORT TX FOR NOON TOMORROW.

Not a good scene for the Houston Metrplex for tomorrow. I am expecting winds to 50 mph in Houston proper with rain amounts to 8" and more. If Claudette comes in as I expect her to we will stay on the dirty side for the duration of her landfallling and disapation.

ColdFront77 · #3 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 5:12 pm

Claudette will have to move in the direction of the Texas coast at about 8 miles per hour, literally in order to get there at 12:00 PM CT.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 5:19 pm

Yes David Freeport is not far from Houston and Galveston so as you said the dirty or strongest side will pass that area but hopefully it doesn't stall like Allison did.

therock1811 · #5 Postby **therock1811** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 5:22 pm

Stay safe all in Houston/Galveston!!!!!!!!!!!

ColdFront77 · #6 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 5:31 pm

As I alluded to in my post above, this system isn't moving that fast now, it will have to speed up and remain at that speed during and after landfall to "move along."

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 5:46 pm

At 160 mi SE of Galveston, if Claudette continuew on a beeline course NW to the coast she will be there in 23 hrs give or take an hour or two. Now we all know the direct path will not happen, but midday to late afternoon is a good bet for landfall unless she slows more or speeds up.

ColdFront77 · #8 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jul 14, 2003 5:50 pm

David, the latest average speed of Claudette is near 7 miles per hour. In the last several hours it has been moving slower than that, so technically speaking with it remaining 0 to 7 miles per hour, 12:00 PM CT into the afternoon may be early.

I am not saying it will be, it could be, is my current thinking.

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