ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Almost certain to develop. This will be the next one being paid attention to. I imagine another north island track?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Almost certain to develop. This will be the next one being paid attention to. I imagine another north island track?

I don't expect it to be upgraded in the next 36 hours, because of the shear. You can see the northern side of the system start being sheared with high clouds being blow to the northeast. This thing tryed but will be stopped for a while.

[KWT]

Depends whether it gets sheared to death Sanibel really beforehand, looks like its going to take a pretty hard ride till at least 60W once the shear finally kicks in which it will given the ULL motion presently.

[Sanibel]

Yeah - just came back to change that after watching it erode on larger Atlantic Wide shot. Looks to be crumbling. My numbers for the year prediction is crumbling along with it. See if it maintains enough spin to bloom later.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm starting to believe that the Centeral/Eastern Atlantic is not very favorable this season. I don't expect it to become much more favorable as there is alot of ULL's. But on the other hand it will force all develop of cyclones into the western Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf like 2005. I will stick with my 14 named storms.

[KWT]

I actually think September will be the main month for development, remember Derek saying the ITCZ has been a little north of the monsoon trough this season so when it coems back south again thats when things should get going.

Anyway the simple fact is this probably is a TD but simply because it may not last long they haven't upgraded it, much the same with that other invest that was near Africa a few weeks ago.

[cycloneye]

Still looking fairly good.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like a TD on first few frames of visible...

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191031
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
631 AM AST TUE AUG 19 2008

LOOKING AHEAD...EASTERN ATLANTIC LOOKING A BIT ACTIVE AND WE WILL
FIRST NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE
NEAR 13 NORTH AND 37 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. SYSTEM LOOKING
FAIRLY HEALTHY ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODELS SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. PER NHC AND GFS MODEL...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS MAY BE A BIT HOSTILE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LATITUDE THIS FEATURE GAINS AS IT
TRACKS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. FOR NOW...WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO
BE NEAR THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND HAVE
MENTIONED A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

[Gustywind]

000
FZNT23 KNHC 191001 CCA
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

CORRECTING WORDING IN SW N ATLC SECTION

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ089-191530-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

Interresting discussion this morning:
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF AREA IS ALONG 35W WITH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR E TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU NIGHT/FRI AND APPROACH THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

[Gustywind]

19/0600 UTC 12.8N 36.3W T1.0/1.0 9EL -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 36W S OF 17N WITH
A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION WITH A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LOW CENTER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
33W-38W.

[cycloneye]

Despite the shear wording in the outlook,they leaved it orange.

ABNT20 KNHC 191150
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED INLAND ABOUT 30 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES
FLORIDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
CHANCE FOR SOME FURTHER ORGANZATION BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[GCANE]

This one may have a hard time developing.

I checked the 200mb GFS run and a TUTT will be on its north side and track along 94L for the next 72 hours until the TUTT dissipates. This will keep shear high on its north flank.

This is not a particularly strong wave, vorticity is higher at 850mb versus 700mb.

So, this may fire convection in bursts for durations less than 24 hours in length due to the fact the wave will be on the SE side of the TUTT and shear will be driving MCS-type convection. But, I wouldn't expect to see sustained convection until the TUTT dissipates.

We need to see where we are then after the TUTT dissipates which will be around late Thursday.

[cycloneye]

From 8 AM Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 17N
WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION WITH A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[cycloneye]

The 12:00 UTC Best track:

AL, 94, 2008081912, , BEST, 0, 125N, 372W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[ConvergenceZone]

I actually think September will be the main month for development, remember Derek saying the ITCZ has been a little north of the monsoon trough this season so when it coems back south again thats when things should get going.

Anyway the simple fact is this probably is a TD but simply because it may not last long they haven't upgraded it, much the same with that other invest that was near Africa a few weeks ago.

Hey KWT, I couldn't have said it better myself....I didn't realize the conditions ahead of 94L were so unfavorable, but according to the latest TWO, I guess they are....I'm thinking that if this doesn't develop, then it's up to September to bring us a storm. I don't really see anything else out there and the end of August is quickly approaching....

[cycloneye]

From the 94L model runs thread:

Now SHIP decreases shear thru the 120 hour period:

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KTS)        4     6    10     9    10     9     8     5     0     6     5     4    11


[Scorpion]

That's really huge for development of this. Shear forecasts are always changing.

[GCANE]

Shear depends a lot on track.

Spaghetti is all over the place for this.

If it has a more northerly component, then shear will be high.
If it has a more westerly component and doesn't move north much, then shear will be lower.

[Gustywind]

The 12:00 UTC Best track:

AL, 94, 2008081912, , BEST, 0, 125N, 372W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Seems a bit souther than the previous position at 13°N? Is it a relocation much souther Cycloneye or eyes are deceiving me? Humm if it's south i don't like that at all,with shear on decreasing trend...