Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

96 Hours...this scenario is becoming more likely..

[ROCK]

96 Hours...this scenario is becoming more likely..

2nd run in a row now......look at the high build to her north.....thats nothing to sneeze about. If anything, I think the GFS is to slow at 66-96hr.....

[Ivanhater]

Yeah..at the 500mb level, she looks embedded right in the middle of the monster high..not sure if thats possible, looks odd

[mattpetre]

I wouldn't want to mention forum posts too much, but it sure looks like we may be talking about Fay for some time to come. I definately wouldn't let my guard down anywhere along the E. Coast either since just one little hiccup in the ridge and this could go hurtling anywhere from NE Florida to NYC...

[ROCK]

Yeah..at the 500mb level, she looks embedded right in the middle of the monster high..not sure if thats possible, looks odd

yeah at 108hr it looks odd.....but shes back in the EGOM....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

[ROCK]

I wouldn't want to mention forum posts too much, but it sure looks like we may be talking about Fay for some time to come. I definately wouldn't let my guard down anywhere along the E. Coast either since just one little hiccup in the ridge and this could go hurtling anywhere from NE Florida to NYC...

I agree....we are just looking for clues in this run.....as some of the other models have been sniffing this out today...

[Ivanhater]

Yeah..at the 500mb level, she looks embedded right in the middle of the monster high..not sure if thats possible, looks odd

yeah at 108hr it looks odd.....but shes back in the EGOM....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

Yep Rock, looks like were going to be talking about Fay for another week, Im already sick of her lol

[Stormcenter]

Yeah..at the 500mb level, she looks embedded right in the middle of the monster high..not sure if thats possible, looks odd

yeah at 108hr it looks odd.....but shes back in the EGOM....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

There was suppose to be another trough coming down at about the same time. She may not be in the GOM for long.

[Ivanhater]

120, still moving west in the gulf


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

[freeroam]

Are you sure you are not looking at 94L?

120, still moving west in the gulf


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

[canetracker]

Will Fay ever go away??!! A double wammy for Florida in basically the same area!

[PTPatrick]

So far GFS and NAM are the main ones to push it back over the Gulf for any substanial amount of time. UKMET kinda skirts the coast of the Panhandle(likely a weaker storm in that case)...and so far as I can tell most other models do the westward turn, but do it into NE FL or GA. Not sure why GFDL and HWF havnt caught on yet, esp since that are supposed to generated from GFS data. I have NEVER seen GFDL stay this far away from GFS for this many runs.

[Ivanhater]

Are you sure you are not looking at 94L?

120, still moving west in the gulf


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

No, been tracking her since 00 hours

[RL3AO]

Are you sure you are not looking at 94L?

120, still moving west in the gulf


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

Nope. Thats fay.

[ROCK]

Yeah..at the 500mb level, she looks embedded right in the middle of the monster high..not sure if thats possible, looks odd

yeah at 108hr it looks odd.....but shes back in the EGOM....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

Yep Rock, looks like were going to be talking about Fay for another week, Im already sick of her lol

Yeah, if I was a NGOM this would need to be taken seriously,it could spin up quick...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Heading for the LA/MS/AL area.......at 120hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

I buy the eventual western movement but this is a stretch, unless my EURO says (LOLOLOL).

And if this does shake out...WOW, Florida will need big ol' buckets.

[Ivanhater]

Boooooooooo!

[ROCK]

So far GFS and NAM are the main ones to push it back over the Gulf for any substanial amount of time. UKMET kinda skirts the coast of the Panhandle(likely a weaker storm in that case)...and so far as I can tell most other models do the westward turn, but do it into NE FL or GA. Not sure why GFDL and HWF havnt caught on yet, esp since that are supposed to generated from GFS data. I have NEVER seen GFDL stay this far away from GFS for this many runs.

I suspect the GFDL will follow suite soon enough. Cant ignore two run in a row. And yes it is run off GFS data.

[PTPatrick]

138 hrs...looks like its shoort for a landfall in NW FL, a little east of previous forecast...of course if all this plays out we will likely see models swings from SE LA to the Big Bend...


You know, its funny, I posted yesterday about the possiblity of the high building back in posing a threat near Biloxi to Apalachicola, but I thought it was a possibility for Wednesday-Thursday time frame...NOT this time next week!

[freeroam]

Yep, she really is there!

Are you sure you are not looking at 94L?

120, still moving west in the gulf


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

Nope. Thats fay.