Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[poof121]

12Z GFS 168 hrs --- Just off MS/AL gulf coast...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008081812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[tolakram]

12Z GFS 168 hrs --- Just off MS/AL gulf coast...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008081812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

That's a riot. I don't think it's taking everything, like shear and land interaction, into account.

[HouTXmetro]

12Z GFS 168 hrs --- Just off MS/AL gulf coast...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008081812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

That GFS run also shows a building Ridge which may push it into New Orleans or even SW.

[N2Storms]

[quote="poof121"]12Z GFS 168 hrs --- Just off MS/AL gulf coast...

[url]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008081812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation[/url][/quote]




I think that'd be a long shot at best...good for entertainment value but realistically that's pretty far fetched IMO

[njweather]

What are the other models saying? The GFS has been forecasting this "hook" for the past few runs.

It may seem far-fetched, but surely the GFS can't be that wrong with a 90 hour forecast.

[TheRingo]

I am having doubts the gfs will materialize. Thinking she will intensify more as she clears cuba, which should give her more push to the north. By then I think the system will be well on her way to not make such a big shift to the west. I would wait for the GFDL.

[seahawkjd]

So what are the chances that this makes it into the Atlantic and intensifies before going.... wherever

[AL Chili Pepper]

The GFS has been showing a similar situation for over a day now. First it showed Fay being blocked in GA and forced back into MS, then just blocked in GA and weakening. Now it's showing it being forced into the northern Gulf. With such consistency from one of the better models, I wouldn't trash the idea. Even if it does make it back into the Gulf though, bets are that it'd never be more than a mild TS.

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFDL and UKMET shifted east:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_06.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF East Too Over Lake...

[Scorpion]

Euro stalls over the Keys..

[gatorcane]

well NHC probably will shift east again at 5pm EST.....

based on GFDL and HWRF model shifts to the right

[KWT]

Some of those models really are looking tricky and interesting, the UKMO also joins the GFS in sending this back westwards eventually. If it gets out to the Atlantic then there appears to be at least a fair chance that it may swing back west towards the far north of the gulf...madness!!!

Maybe slight shift east IMO.

[gtsmith]

There is a huge discrepancy between the 12Z GFDL run for Fay and the 12Z GFDL run for 94L. The one for 94L has Fay going over Key West, entering the peninsula around Ft Nyers, going NNE up the peninsula, then stalling around Cape Canaveral, then coming back across the peninsula SSE, exiting about where it came in at Ft Myers area, back down across Key West to just off the northern coast of cuba...very strange. The 12Z run for Fay has her entering around Ft Myers, up the spine of the peninsula, then off the coast around St Augustine, then back in land on the coast of GA, then heading to points north.

[deltadog03]

WEll, lets see what the euro says on 12z run..

[Ed Mahmoud]

WEll, lets see what the euro says on 12z run..

Ballpark JAX/SSI area



The PSU version shows hours 0, 24 and 36, when that comes out, we can see how it gets there...

[x-y-no]

There is a huge discrepancy between the 12Z GFDL run for Fay and the 12Z GFDL run for 94L. The one for 94L has Fay going over Key West, entering the peninsula around Ft Nyers, going NNE up the peninsula, then stalling around Cape Canaveral, then coming back across the peninsula SSE, exiting about where it came in at Ft Myers area, back down across Key West to just off the northern coast of cuba...very strange. The 12Z run for Fay has her entering around Ft Myers, up the spine of the peninsula, then off the coast around St Augustine, then back in land on the coast of GA, then heading to points north.

Not strange at all. One has the nested grid on Fay, the other on 94L.

The surprising thing would be if they did the same thing at such a great remove - that would call into question whether the model was adding anything of value at all.

[KWT]

Yep ED ECM suggests Fay will have another 24hrs over water roughly when it gets into the Atlantic.

[AL Chili Pepper]

So, the GFS, ECMF, and UKMet all are showing fay exiting FL and then moving back across FL from east to west. That would be interesting, gonna do a crazy Ivan.

[deltadog03]

and get fairly strong at that....The push into GA