Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

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poof121
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2481 Postby poof121 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:38 pm

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2482 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:42 pm



That's a riot. I don't think it's taking everything, like shear and land interaction, into account.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2483 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:43 pm



That GFS run also shows a building Ridge which may push it into New Orleans or even SW.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2484 Postby N2Storms » Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:49 pm

[quote="poof121"]12Z GFS 168 hrs --- Just off MS/AL gulf coast...

[url]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008081812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation[/url][/quote]




I think that'd be a long shot at best...good for entertainment value but realistically that's pretty far fetched IMO
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2485 Postby njweather » Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:52 pm

What are the other models saying? The GFS has been forecasting this "hook" for the past few runs.

It may seem far-fetched, but surely the GFS can't be that wrong with a 90 hour forecast.
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#2486 Postby TheRingo » Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:55 pm

I am having doubts the gfs will materialize. Thinking she will intensify more as she clears cuba, which should give her more push to the north. By then I think the system will be well on her way to not make such a big shift to the west. I would wait for the GFDL.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2487 Postby seahawkjd » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:01 pm

So what are the chances that this makes it into the Atlantic and intensifies before going.... wherever
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2488 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:04 pm

The GFS has been showing a similar situation for over a day now. First it showed Fay being blocked in GA and forced back into MS, then just blocked in GA and weakening. Now it's showing it being forced into the northern Gulf. With such consistency from one of the better models, I wouldn't trash the idea. Even if it does make it back into the Gulf though, bets are that it'd never be more than a mild TS.
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#2489 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:17 pm

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#2490 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:20 pm

HWRF East Too Over Lake...
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#2491 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:22 pm

Euro stalls over the Keys..
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#2492 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:22 pm

well NHC probably will shift east again at 5pm EST.....

based on GFDL and HWRF model shifts to the right :uarrow:
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#2493 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:25 pm

Some of those models really are looking tricky and interesting, the UKMO also joins the GFS in sending this back westwards eventually. If it gets out to the Atlantic then there appears to be at least a fair chance that it may swing back west towards the far north of the gulf...madness!!!

Maybe slight shift east IMO.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2494 Postby gtsmith » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:31 pm

There is a huge discrepancy between the 12Z GFDL run for Fay and the 12Z GFDL run for 94L. The one for 94L has Fay going over Key West, entering the peninsula around Ft Nyers, going NNE up the peninsula, then stalling around Cape Canaveral, then coming back across the peninsula SSE, exiting about where it came in at Ft Myers area, back down across Key West to just off the northern coast of cuba...very strange. The 12Z run for Fay has her entering around Ft Myers, up the spine of the peninsula, then off the coast around St Augustine, then back in land on the coast of GA, then heading to points north.

:double:
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#2495 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:41 pm

WEll, lets see what the euro says on 12z run..
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Ed Mahmoud

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#2496 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:00 pm

deltadog03 wrote:WEll, lets see what the euro says on 12z run..



Ballpark JAX/SSI area

Image

The PSU version shows hours 0, 24 and 36, when that comes out, we can see how it gets there...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2497 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:04 pm

gtsmith wrote:There is a huge discrepancy between the 12Z GFDL run for Fay and the 12Z GFDL run for 94L. The one for 94L has Fay going over Key West, entering the peninsula around Ft Nyers, going NNE up the peninsula, then stalling around Cape Canaveral, then coming back across the peninsula SSE, exiting about where it came in at Ft Myers area, back down across Key West to just off the northern coast of cuba...very strange. The 12Z run for Fay has her entering around Ft Myers, up the spine of the peninsula, then off the coast around St Augustine, then back in land on the coast of GA, then heading to points north.

:double:


Not strange at all. One has the nested grid on Fay, the other on 94L.

The surprising thing would be if they did the same thing at such a great remove - that would call into question whether the model was adding anything of value at all.
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#2498 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:08 pm

Yep ED ECM suggests Fay will have another 24hrs over water roughly when it gets into the Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2499 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:24 pm

So, the GFS, ECMF, and UKMet all are showing fay exiting FL and then moving back across FL from east to west. That would be interesting, gonna do a crazy Ivan.
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#2500 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:45 pm

and get fairly strong at that....The push into GA
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