Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[stormchazer]

Charley was a better developed TC when it left Cuba.

[gtalum]

all it took was a few hours for Charley

Fay is not Charley. The environmental setup is completely different.

[artist]

it may have been but the heat potential is there with the loop current. I'm not saying she is going to explode but don't doubt that she can strengthen.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow:

Shear is not strong enough to prevent Fay moving up 15mph to a minimal CAT 1 hurricane.

Look at the WV loop, the ULL is inducing some southerly shear but maybe about 10-15K of shear at the most.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I would expect Fay to reach Minimal Hurricane strength but not much beyond that...just not going to have much time over water...people in S. Fla and SW Fla shouldn't get too complacent but I don't think you're going to see a major weather event by any stretch...the torrential rains are going to be the most problematic aspect of this storm IMO

all it took was a few hours for Charley

nhc cant figure out intensity but we have a bunch of intensity experts here saying it wont intensify much...

[Stormcenter]

Here is what I don't like.
A majority of the models have Fay hooking
back toward the GOM later in the run.
What is that all about?

[SouthFLTropics]

Shouldn't the new GFS be coming out soon?

[Evil Jeremy]

Shouldn't the new GFS be coming out soon?

It should be rolling right now. However, I cannot access the site where the run is posted. Don't know what is going on.

[x-y-no]

Shouldn't the new GFS be coming out soon?

It should be rolling right now. However, I cannot access the site where the run is posted. Don't know what is going on.

Yeah, I can't get to the NCEP site either.

[Brent]

Just saw it elsewhere... Key West-Naples-Canaveral route and then back over the Atlantic where it appears to get going again, before pushing SW back into NE FL.

[Regit]

Just saw it elsewhere... Key West-Naples-Canaveral route and then back over the Atlantic where it appears to get going again, before pushing SW back into NE FL.

Saw that as well... Seems to strengthen with a landfall at the northern end of Canaveral.

[Regit]

Also looks like possible emergence into the N GOM after the east coast hit.

[rockyman]

GFS 12z has the system just south of the western Florida Panhandle in 138 hours, drifting west

[Regit]

Amazingly, I can access NCEP only on my iPhone. Anyone with Safari might want to give it a shot.

[SouthFLTropics]

I believe that is the third run in a row that has showed this cross Florida and back again track...Seems the GFS might be onto something.

SFT

[deltadog03]

Not, buying into the WSW from the GFS yet....EURO...We ALL should have given the euro more credit...

[KWT]

The ECm nailed it, I think some people are very unfair to it at times, its by far the best mid range model IMO. The GFS track is possible if the high builds back strongly, I think its certainly possible just depends on where Fay exits Florida, the further south obvioisly the greater the chance.

[rockyman]

GFS 180 hours...moving inland over Mobile, AL

[KWT]

anyone got a link to the 12z GFS run by the way?

[deltadog03]

EURO has a very potent CANE sitting off the GA coast and coming in on thursday!

[Blown Away]

EURO has a very potent CANE sitting off the GA coast and coming in on thursday!

Deltadog03, will you confirm a few things:
1. Did recent recon indicate N movement?
2. With regards to the NHC track is this N movement early?
3. Do you expect more of an E adjustment to the NHC track?
4. Do you think Fay will exit into the Atlantic S of the Cape?