Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[rockyman]

6z NOGAPS...eastern Fla Panhandle:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 0m&tau=060

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL:

WHXX04 KWBC 181129
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.9 80.8 330./ 9.9
6 22.5 81.4 318./ 8.1
12 23.4 81.8 335./ 9.2
18 24.2 81.8 357./ 8.0
24 25.0 81.9 356./ 8.1
30 26.0 81.9 358./ 9.9
36 27.0 81.9 3./10.1
42 27.8 81.6 23./ 8.1
48 28.7 81.6 358./ 9.8
54 29.6 81.2 22./ 9.8
60 30.3 81.1 12./ 7.0
66 31.0 80.9 11./ 7.1
72 31.6 81.2 335./ 6.2
78 32.3 81.5 339./ 7.6
84 33.1 81.8 341./ 8.1
90 34.0 82.3 329./ 9.5
96 34.9 83.1 318./12.1
102 36.7 83.8 340./18.4
108 38.3 83.9 355./15.8
114 39.6 83.9 0./13.5
120 41.2 83.4 20./16.0
126 42.9 82.2 33./19.3

[deltadog03]

LOL, So far the Euro might take some of the cake...

[N2FSU]

Tallahassee NWS discussion now mentioning possible blocking pattern of Fay with turn back west:

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES AS WE ENTER THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD AN
ARGUMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
U.S. WILL IMPEDE A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FAY. ANY DIRECTION FAY
TAKES WILL BE BLOCKED EXCEPT FOR A WESTWARD DRIFT. BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS SUGGEST THIS. THE 00Z EURO TURNS FAY NORTHWEST IN EASTERN
GA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS FAY MOVING WEST AND BREAKING BACK INTO
THE GULF ON SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFDL AND HWRF HAS THE RIDGE MOVING
EASTWARD ALLOWING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK. MAY BE
GFDL AND HWRF IS UNDERESTIMATING THE RIDGE STRENGTH.
THEREFORE...THE EXTENDED DEPENDS ON WHERE AND IF FAY IS BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE...

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 181244
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC MON AUG 18 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080818 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080818 1200 080819 0000 080819 1200 080820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.2N 81.2W 24.7N 81.9W 26.3N 81.6W 27.8N 80.7W
BAMM 23.2N 81.2W 24.5N 82.0W 25.9N 82.2W 27.1N 81.9W
SHIP 50KTS 56KTS 62KTS 67KTS
DSHP 50KTS 56KTS 62KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080820 1200 080821 1200 080822 1200 080823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.1N 79.8W 30.2N 78.2W 29.6N 79.4W 29.7N 82.6W
BAMM 28.2N 81.6W 29.2N 81.3W 28.7N 82.7W 27.9N 85.7W
SHIP 69KTS 66KTS 57KTS 44KTS
DSHP 34KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 81.2W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 317DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 20.1N LONM24 = 78.0W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Thunder44]

6z Ukmet (only out to 48hrs) shifted much further east from the 0z run. It looks like it has landfall somewhwere near Miami and Key Largo area:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Canelaw99]

6z Ukmet (only out to 48hrs) shifted much further east from the 0z run. It looks like it has landfall somewhwere near Miami:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Not wishing it, but it doesn't seem that far-fetched to me, generally, at least...landfall looks to be in the mid to upper keys/extreme southern dade/mainland monroe..she's been a stubborn gal and the NHC has talked about rightward shifts, so at this point, almost anything is possible LOL

[Steve]

>>Eventually GFS hits the panhandle anyway:

LMAO.

[tolakram]

Not wishing it, but it doesn't seem that far-fetched to me, generally, at least...landfall looks to be in the mid to upper keys/extreme southern dade/mainland monroe..she's been a stubborn gal and the NHC has talked about rightward shifts, so at this point, almost anything is possible LOL

So you're expecting a hard right turn? Right now Fay is moving N/NW and has been for almost a day.

Maybe I should be posting my amateur plot here.



If Fay was going to make a sharp turn she would most likely be slowing down.

[Canelaw99]

Not wishing it, but it doesn't seem that far-fetched to me, generally, at least...landfall looks to be in the mid to upper keys/extreme southern dade/mainland monroe..she's been a stubborn gal and the NHC has talked about rightward shifts, so at this point, almost anything is possible LOL

So you're expecting a hard right turn? Right now Fay is moving N/NW and has been for almost a day.

Maybe I should be posting my amateur plot here.



If Fay was going to make a sharp turn she would most likely be slowing down.

Nope, not necessarily...I was commenting on that run, and she's been shifting a tad east the last couple of runs. Shifting from Key West to middle Keys wouldn't take that much overall....there's 80 miles from Key West to Islamorada...wouldn't require much of an easterly "jog"/"wobble" to cover that....

And if you think about it, a few days ago, people weren't expecting her to survive Hispaniola or Cuba and look where we are. The tropics are unpredictable in the end, no matter how hard we try to accurately predict them.

[salescall]

Tallahassee NWS discussion now mentioning possible blocking pattern of Fay with turn back west:

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES AS WE ENTER THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD AN
ARGUMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
U.S. WILL IMPEDE A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FAY. ANY DIRECTION FAY
TAKES WILL BE BLOCKED EXCEPT FOR A WESTWARD DRIFT. BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS SUGGEST THIS. THE 00Z EURO TURNS FAY NORTHWEST IN EASTERN
GA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS FAY MOVING WEST AND BREAKING BACK INTO
THE GULF ON SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFDL AND HWRF HAS THE RIDGE MOVING
EASTWARD ALLOWING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK. MAY BE
GFDL AND HWRF IS UNDERESTIMATING THE RIDGE STRENGTH.
THEREFORE...THE EXTENDED DEPENDS ON WHERE AND IF FAY IS BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE...

Please tell me a little more. Does this mean that it will just sit over land (GA/SC) with a slow drift to the west, or am I missing something?

[PTPatrick]

Hmm...ridge building back in? Gordon revisited? Wasnt it he that moved out of the SW Carib, snaked around the East end of Cuba only to move BACK west and hit FL from the SW, exit to the atlantic and and nearly hit NC befored coming back to Daytona? I guess it could happen. One concern down the road would be, if she moves fast enough across FL she may spend some time sitting in the atlantic waiting like a titatic survivor for the Carpathia to get her back to the US. Lots to consider here. Of course if she shoots west into georgia vs shooting west into the gulf makes a huge difference. Fay is making me tired.

[NEXRAD]

Based on information I'm seeing from the latest satellite and radar imagery as well as from surface and upper air observations, Fay looks prone to track noticeably east of most 00Z model guidance. The general landfall looks to be between Fort Myers and extreme south Miami-Dade County (west of Key Largo) at this point. For anyone interested in more specifics, I just finished a comprehensive write-up in the "Tropical Analysis" forum.

- Jay

[gatorcane]

if you are correct then new hurricane watches/warnings may need to be issued for SE FL metro areas including West Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderale, and Miami

[GreenSky]

:uarrow:

if you are correct then new hurricane watches/warnings may need to be issued for SE FL metro areas including West Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderale, and Miami

I don't know if that would be necessary. Fay is still being SHEARED greatly and moving FASTER...on its current track it may have only 12 hours before making landfall...so looks like just a tropical storm when making landfall.

THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS NOT MOVED TO SOUTHWEST AND INSTEAD HAS MOVED EASTWARD CLOSER TO FAY AND IS STILL SHEARING THE HECK OUT OF IT.

I WISH FORECAST MODELS COULD DO A BETTER JOB AT PREDICTING UPPER LEVEL LOW INTERACTIONS. THAT'S WHY INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SO WAAAAY OFF NOWADAYS.

[gatorcane]

Shear is not strong enough to prevent Fay moving up 15mph to a minimal CAT 1 hurricane.

Look at the WV loop, the ULL is inducing some southerly shear but maybe about 10-15K of shear at the most.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[N2Storms]

[quote="gatorcane"]:uarrow:

Shear is not strong enough to prevent Fay moving up 15mph to a minimal CAT 1 hurricane.

Look at the WV loop, the ULL is inducing some southerly shear but maybe about 10-15K of shear at the most.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif[/quote]


I would expect Fay to reach Minimal Hurricane strength but not much beyond that...just not going to have much time over water...people in S. Fla and SW Fla shouldn't get too complacent but I don't think you're going to see a major weather event by any stretch...the torrential rains are going to be the most problematic aspect of this storm IMO

[gtsmith]

:uarrow:

Shear is not strong enough to prevent Fay moving up 15mph to a minimal CAT 1 hurricane.

Look at the WV loop, the ULL is inducing some southerly shear but maybe about 10-15K of shear at the most.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I would expect Fay to reach Minimal Hurricane strength but not much beyond that...just not going to have much time over water...people in S. Fla and SW Fla shouldn't get too complacent but I don't think you're going to see a major weather event by any stretch...the torrential rains are going to be the most problematic aspect of this storm IMO

Maybe it's just me but I would consider 5-10 inches of rain over the next few days with potential flooding a major weather event...

[chris_fit]

Looks like the NHC's Track is pretty much the Western Outliner now....

[artist]

:uarrow:

Shear is not strong enough to prevent Fay moving up 15mph to a minimal CAT 1 hurricane.

Look at the WV loop, the ULL is inducing some southerly shear but maybe about 10-15K of shear at the most.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I would expect Fay to reach Minimal Hurricane strength but not much beyond that...just not going to have much time over water...people in S. Fla and SW Fla shouldn't get too complacent but I don't think you're going to see a major weather event by any stretch...the torrential rains are going to be the most problematic aspect of this storm IMO

all it took was a few hours for Charley