Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ground_Zero_92]

This is certainly becoming one of the more interesting storms to follow. Hopefully, it will be no stronger than a tropical storm if it does do a zig zag throught Florida.

[Ivanhater]

Lol, GFS looks kind of cool with it so round in the central gulf..

[DESTRUCTION5]

00 GFDL Goes Straight N to Canada!LOL
Ohh..Thru Tampa 1st

[HURAKAN]

217
WHXX04 KWBC 180528
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.9 80.4 295./ 8.9
6 21.4 81.0 310./ 6.7
12 22.4 81.6 327./11.2
18 23.3 81.8 351./10.0
24 24.4 81.8 355./11.0
30 25.2 82.4 324./ 9.2
36 26.0 82.2 14./ 7.9
42 27.2 82.2 359./12.0
48 28.1 82.2 2./ 9.7
54 29.2 82.1 5./10.2
60 30.2 82.0 6./10.5
66 31.1 81.9 6./ 8.6
72 31.9 81.8 6./ 7.9
78 32.8 82.1 343./ 9.9
84 33.7 82.5 337./ 9.7
90 35.0 82.9 342./12.7
96 36.9 83.6 340./20.2
102 38.6 84.2 339./17.7
108 40.4 84.5 353./18.2
114 42.2 84.6 356./18.3
120 44.0 84.5 5./17.1
126 45.9 83.9 15./19.8

[Ivanhater]

Looks like NOGAPS (almost Pensacola Landfall) and the UKMET are in pretty close agreement.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt ... .egrr..txt

Assuming the GFDL follows the GFS with a righward move...we are going to have two distinct camps...the GFS vs. the Navy/UKMET alliance.

Almost as fun as the Olympics, no?

Hard to see the UKMET verifying though...It moves Fay 2 degrees west by 8AM today...hard to belive that is possible.

MW

Mike, the Nogaps basically has the same idea as the GFS and Euro, just doesnt get it as far NE as them...I think its safe to say at some point, wherever she is, she might get pushed back by a strong high building..

[attallaman]

Which model is the most accurate in determining where this storm will go?

[Meso]

HWRF 00z

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

HWRF 00z

That would mean a northwest track and even a short west-northwest track to get there. WOW.

[dizzyfish]

The 2am had it going almost over my house - missed me by about 3 miles. The 5am has shifted right (east) again. I give up! Fickle Fay is driving me nuts!!!

[KWT]

Models have done a horrid job on that upper level low, the models progged the ULL to dive WSW and weaken, instead its actually backed eastward and is shearing the system and also probably helping to shunt it near due north.

Looks like its going to catch the trough as well now...

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS rolling. At 12 hours, it is still below FL: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _012.shtml

[Evil Jeremy]

24 Hours: Approaching SW FL: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml

36 Hours: Landfall in SFL: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml

[Nimbus]

From the 5 AM NHC advisory.

some
additional rightward adjustments may be necessary if the current
convective structure persists and the cyclone remains vertically
connected.

The model runs are worthless until we get that issue resolved.

The ULL to Fays west has been very helpfull in providing enough shear to keep her weak but it is raising issues with track.


There may be a stripped remnant LLC running out from under the convection WNW across Cuba that will spawn a center much further west than the current convection north of Cuba.

On the other hand a new center might form under the strong convection over the straits. The convective plume is pointing NNE and anything forming off SE Florida might not get trapped by the ridge.

The system could stay elongated or even split.

I'm waiting to see where recon finds a west wind.

[KWT]

Back into the Atlantic:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

And back into the gulf

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

[Trader Ron]

With the NHC Hinting at a right shift in the models, it won't take much to have SW Florida to be under the gun.again!

I'm not wishing this of course. After following the tropics for 55 year's, yes 55 year's, I'm sick of these Cyclones. lol.

[KWT]

In fact I think its pretty likely, the models are still shifting eastwards and the latest GFS run agrees with the 0z run in that it progs the system to move NNE across the state.

Eventually GFS hits the panhandle anyway:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

[rockyman]

In fact I think its pretty likely, the models are still shifting eastwards and the latest GFS run agrees with the 0z run in that it progs the system to move NNE across the state.

Eventually GFS hits the panhandle anyway:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

Elena-esque

[Scorpion]

I can't imagine what would happen if this verified...

[ftolmsteen]

LOL What the heck is up with the GFS? Another Jeanne.

[jlauderdal]

From the 5 AM NHC advisory.

some
additional rightward adjustments may be necessary if the current
convective structure persists and the cyclone remains vertically
connected.

The model runs are worthless until we get that issue resolved.

The ULL to Fays west has been very helpfull in providing enough shear to keep her weak but it is raising issues with track.


There may be a stripped remnant LLC running out from under the convection WNW across Cuba that will spawn a center much further west than the current convection north of Cuba.

On the other hand a new center might form under the strong convection over the straits. The convective plume is pointing NNE and anything forming off SE Florida might not get trapped by the ridge.

The system could stay elongated or even split.

I'm waiting to see where recon finds a west wind.

why would you say the model runs are worthless, there has been good consistency for several days and they are hanging tough with the same idea..if you think they are worthless then dont look at them and fly blind but lets us know in your disclaimer so we can ignore your forecasts