Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like the two kinds of models don't agreee. The Gfdl, Gfs, ECMWF, Cmc, Gfdl, Ukmet camp shows Florida. But the other camp of models say NO it will be the northern Gulf coast.

If the other camp proves corrct,we will see Fay become a cat 4

I would say I don't believe so. The gulf is not that favorable this year just look at Dolly and Edouard. To much mid level shear and dry air. I would not put any money on that at this moment, but I would not forecast a cat4 in the gulf with the wind shear that is being forecasted by some models.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't think anyone can say that the Panhandle from Destin, FL eastward is out of the realm of possibilities as the models have been known in the past this far out to be off a good bit. Still it does look from right now that the conditions would favor a West Coast Florida landfall but we all should know that with weather and a fluid atmosphere that the forecast and thus reality can change.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I think once you start seeing a more northerly component, which is probably happening now, you'll see the nogaps shifting eastward, and the BAM models don't concern me.

[Jason_B]

Just as wxman57 pointed out in the main thread, all the models showing this going off to the west are garbage...ignore them.

[Noles2006]

I think I'll go with the right side because those are actually reliable models and for the most part have been consistent the past day or so.

Consistent?

LOL!

[Jason_B]

I think I'll go with the right side because those are actually reliable models and for the most part have been consistent the past day or so.

Consistent?

LOL!

For the most part yes.

LOL at models who have Fay going right through a trof.

[Pearl River]

Just a question and this is not a slap at anyone. I have read many times, by many posters, this or that model is garbage, so just throw them out. If a lot of models are garbage, then why use them? Eventually some models will be correct. I remember the NHC saying th GFDL was an outlier many times during Katrina, but I believe it was the only model to pick up the W-SW movement she made across S.FL. Just a question. Thanks.

[gtalum]

From my understanding, every model has strengths and weaknesses, and for each storm a different set of models will work the best, depending on circumstances.

[x-y-no]

Just a question and this is not a slap at anyone. I have read many times, by many posters, this or that model is garbage, so just throw them out. If a lot of models are garbage, then why use them? Eventually some models will be correct. I remember the NHC saying th GFDL was an outlier many times during Katrina, but I believe it was the only model to pick up the W-SW movement she made across S.FL. Just a question. Thanks.

They're not garbage in all situations. In this case, the BAM suite (BAMS, BAMM, BAMD) are only appropriate in the tropics. They don't handle mid-latitude interaction well.

[Frank P]

I think I'll go with the right side because those are actually reliable models and for the most part have been consistent the past day or so.

Consistent?

LOL!

For the most part yes.

LOL at models who have Fay going right through a trof.

Jason, if you look at all the models very few are actually turned to the NE or ENE at the end of their runs as would be expected if they were going to be influenced by a strong trough... they basically go north well into the trough zonal region... go back and look at what wxman57 posted for even the "better" models and you will see this

[AL Chili Pepper]

I think I'll go with the right side because those are actually reliable models and for the most part have been consistent the past day or so.

Consistent?

LOL!

The trough's not going to be there forever, but it'll be there long enough to weaken the ridge in place enough to open the door for Fay. In fact, the GFS is showing a ridge building in shortly after Fay reaches 30 degrees.

[Pearl River]

gtalum and X-Y-NO. Thanks.

[Ixolib]

Oh, I do--on August 25, 2005. The models were clustered over MS/LA and the NHC still had a central FL Panhandle hit. Not necessarily saying this is the same but the models setup is enough to spook a few of us.

Speaking of those "good old days" (NOT!!), whatever happened to DHWEATHER???

Hey old neighbor, looks like the models want to bring you some nasty weather next week.. hope you are high and dry... and good luck...

this Fay is one messy woman... and to think we're not even in the peak of the season... probably not a good sign at all...

HurryKane -> Thanks. Please pass on our congrats!! Sure do miss his input here though.

Frank -> Well, we believe we're high & dry - of course we "thought" that in Biloxi too!!!! At least here we don't "OWN" the home!!! We live in the SW corner of Pinellas County, about 3 miles east of Treasure Island and about 9 miles north of the southern-most tip of the county.

BTW, it amazes me how many folks that live in St Petersburg who are so truly out of touch with the reality of a major cane. Sincerely meaning no disrespect to my good neighbors, but I suppose ignorance – in such an unfortunate way – is bliss..... In their defense, it has been a looooooong time (did I say long time!!) since this area has received anything close to a direct hit by a major, or even a minor for that matter. Entire generations live here who have no idea what that experience – and more importantly it's aftermath – is really like. While Fay will most probably not be "the one", eventually they're gonna find out!!!

Case in Point:

BAY AREA (Bay News 9) -- All schools in the Bay area are planning to begin classes at their normal start time and date.

All schools except Pinellas County schools are set to begin classes Monday. Pinellas County schools will begin classes Tuesday.

Earlier Sunday, state emergency officials had said that Pinellas Schools would be closed. That information was incorrect.
http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2008/8/17/374311.html

[deltadog03]

Its amazing how some just really want a TS/CANE to plow right there location. Ok, For the GFDL lovers.... & Even the HWRF, well, I can tell you that you can throw BOTH of those models in the trash right now from the 18z runs. Why Chris? Why? Well, some of you need to learn how to read models and wonder why they are doing what they are doing. In other words.. I looked at the 18z runs of both of them. They both, initialized ok...HWRF better. However, thats when they both went downhill quickly. GFDL wanted to show her as just about a hurricane at 8pm tonight. Sorry, wrong answer. The HWRF wanted to make this a very strong TS and have it on the CUBA coast (or very close) by 8pm tonight or so. Wrong, answer. So, you really need to look at things like this when you see a model run. Sure, there NOT going to be perfect, but GFDL and HWRF, if memory serves correctly have this EXITING CUBA by 12z Tomorrow morning. I am not sure that happens....(could though) Bottom line is they are BOTH too strong and way too quickly in the short term. Hope this helps!!!

[mathwhizz]

Does anyone have a link to the FSU Superensemble model?

[Frank P]

Its amazing how some just really want a TS/CANE to plow right there location. Ok, For the GFDL lovers.... & Even the HWRF, well, I can tell you that you can throw BOTH of those models in the trash right now from the 18z runs. Why Chris? Why? Well, some of you need to learn how to read models and wonder why they are doing what they are doing. In other words.. I looked at the 18z runs of both of them. They both, initialized ok...HWRF better. However, thats when they both went downhill quickly. GFDL wanted to show her as just about a hurricane at 8pm tonight. Sorry, wrong answer. The HWRF wanted to make this a very strong TS and have it on the CUBA coast (or very close) by 8pm tonight or so. Wrong, answer. So, you really need to look at things like this when you see a model run. Sure, there NOT going to be perfect, but GFDL and HWRF, if memory serves correctly have this EXITING CUBA by 12z Tomorrow morning. I am not sure that happens....(could though) Bottom line is they are BOTH too strong and way too quickly in the short term. Hope this helps!!!

great post delta

I can honestly say after losing everything I owned as a kid in Camille and everything I owned including my house during Katrina that I NEVER want to see another hurricane any where near me....

I will NEVER live in a FEMA trailer again..

[wxmann_91]

Does anyone have a link to the FSU Superensemble model?

It's not available to the public.

[HurryKane]

deltadog03 wrote:

Well, some of you need to learn how to read models and wonder why they are doing what they are doing. In other words.. I looked at the 18z runs of both of them. They both, initialized ok...HWRF better.

Non-met question: how do you determine if an initialization is good? Is it because of the location only, or location/intensity/other factors? thanks

[Ixolib]

I can honestly say after losing everything I owned as a kid in Camille...

Speaking of.... You realize that it was almost exactly this time in the evening on Sunday, the 17th, that STUFF REALLY STARTED HITTING THE FAN on the coast!!!! Can't believe 39 years has passed since then!! Amazingly, though, it seems like just yesterday...

[srainhoutx]

I can honestly say after losing everything I owned as a kid in Camille...

Speaking of.... You realize that it was almost exactly this time in the evening on Sunday, the 17th, that STUFF REALLY STARTED HITTING THE FAN on the coast!!!! Can't believe 39 years has passed since then!! Amazingly, though, it seems like just yesterday...

Man, hasn't the time gone by quickly. Hard to believe that it's been that long already. Darn I'm getting old.