Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[cycloneye]

Ok it works now.

[Ivanhater]

If you use IE, you should have a bar come up and hit run active something..

[cycloneye]

If you use IE, you should have a bar come up and hit run active something..

That was it.

[Stangfriik]

Must be a firefox thing because I can't see an image.

[Steve H.]

Has anyone seen the 12z GFDL - is it out yet?

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z GFDL continues to shift east. It now skirts SE Florida.



Sat Aug 16 13:34:39 EDT 2008
WHXX04 KWBC 161729

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L



INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 16



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 18.6 73.1 275./13.0

6 19.0 74.1 294./ 9.7

12 19.5 74.9 301./ 9.6

18 20.3 76.1 301./13.6

24 20.9 77.3 296./12.2

30 21.5 78.2 304./10.9

36 22.2 79.0 314./10.1

42 22.9 79.8 310./10.2

48 23.8 80.3 330./ 9.6

54 24.8 80.3 358./10.1

60 25.9 80.2 6./11.7

66 27.1 80.0 8./11.8

72 28.3 79.9 6./12.2

78 29.2 79.6 21./ 9.8

84 30.4 78.9 32./12.7

90 31.4 78.4 23./11.1

96 32.3 77.8 37./10.2

102 33.2 77.1 36./10.3

108 33.9 76.3 47./ 9.8

114 34.5 75.8 42./ 7.5

120 35.3 75.2 36./ 9.4

126 36.1 74.7 33./ 8.8

[CrazyC83]

Hazel repeat setting up now?

[Steve H.]

OK, thanks. I don't like that run, just southeast of me, mot by much. No intensity shown yet though, so maybe it won't be that strong at 27N.

[deltadog03]

ummm...that GFDL is wack...and I am totally discounting that for now..

[SouthFLTropics]

ummm...that GFDL is wack...and I am totally discounting that for now..

Would you care to explain why...just curious...

SFT

[Brent]

Well if the GFDL is gonna be right it better start gaining serious latitude now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[93superstorm]

12z gfdl continues trend east and gives north carolinia a very close call:

brushes florida


964mb near NC

looks like it would ride right up the gulf stream

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF=Landfall near Tampa:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[deltadog03]

thats got it moving at near 290 degrees right now...Sorry not correct...I think this is barely moving at 275.

[Trader Ron]

GFDL is all over the map. Most of the models are clustered over Florida.

[JPmia]

Do we expect recon data to clear up the bad initializations in the models? meaning once they pinpoint the center?

[deltadog03]

12z HWRF=Landfall near Tampa:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Thanks for posting that...I think this is wrong...Atleast for intensity, specially in the short term...No way this is 55kts right now.

[Bocadude85]

12z HWRF=Landfall near Tampa:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Thanks for posting that...I think this is wrong...Atleast for intensity, specially in the short term...No way this is 55kts right now.

It has it at 35kts in the beginning not 55kts

[deltadog03]

True, but we are at/near 18z already...not 12z.