Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[HCSD]

Looks like the GFS is showing some consistancy

[Jason_B]

Worst case scenario would be for the eye/center to stay just offshore and skim the entire west coast of Florida with the right side of the storm (the bad stuff) before making landfall around the Big Bend. I guess a more worst case scenario would be for it to stay in the Gulf completely and hit the central Gulf coast as a much stronger hurricane but that's looking more and more unlikely fortunately.

[timeflow]

GFS Cuts up through the spine of the state after landfall and through my area. Uggh. Shades of Charley. City of Orlando was planning to cut down a big dying oak tree in front of my house, but now it may be too late. We may need to evacuate if this scenario pans out.

[SouthFLTropics]

Something I just thought of:

IF Fay was to make landfall near Everglades City or further South it could have implications on it's intensity on the East Coast further north. Reason is that if Fay crosses the Everglades then for all intents and purposes it basically is still over water until it is just South of Lake O. She could stay stronger for longer if that was the case.

SFT

[Stangfriik]

My parents just got to Islamorada on their way to the Keys for their vacation. I just called them to ask if they had called the company that they were renting the house from to see if they were recommending they not come and she said she hasn't. I told her that if the track verifies, it would pass right over the Keys so I told her to not be surprised if they order a voluntary evac tomorrow.

[artist]

Something I just thought of:

IF Fay was to make landfall near Everglades City or further South it could have implications on it's intensity on the East Coast further north. Reason is that if Fay crosses the Everglades then for all intents and purposes it basically is still over water until it is just South of Lake O. She could stay stronger for longer if that was the case.

SFT

that has been my concern. Any storm that has hit the everglades that I know of since 2004 has strengthened or held its strength while over the everglades.

[rockyman]

NOGAPS running:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... =ngp_namer

[Steve H.]

NOGAPS out to t=36 has it beginning to fire just south of central Cuba.

[JPmia]

Something I just thought of:

IF Fay was to make landfall near Everglades City or further South it could have implications on it's intensity on the East Coast further north. Reason is that if Fay crosses the Everglades then for all intents and purposes it basically is still over water until it is just South of Lake O. She could stay stronger for longer if that was the case.

SFT

that has been my concern. Any storm that has hit the everglades that I know of since 2004 has strengthened or held its strength while over the everglades.

that's why they call it the River of Grass...its all water and swamp. Maybe a good analog would be Donna?

[jaxfladude]

Euro is on crack:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081600!!!step/

[Ivanhater]

Nogaos 96 hours



All these models dont mean a thing if Fay dies, I just wish she would get her act together so she would turn faster

[Thunder44]

Euro is on crack:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081600!!!step/

That is the 0z run from last night.

This is the 12z run of the CMC today. It takes it NE across south and central FL than offshore until it reaches the SC coast by 144hrs:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[jlauderdal]

Nogaos 96 hours



All these models dont mean a thing if Fay dies, I just wish she would get her act together so she would turn faster

the navy has had the right idea all along about the flow, i hope people are paying attention to it for this system

[SCHawkFan]

Euro is on crack:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081600!!!step/

Hey, 2005 called, it wants its crack comment back. "<insert name here> is on track" is such and old and over used phrase.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Euro is on crack:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081600!!!step/

That is the 0z run from last night.

This is the 12z run of the CMC today. It takes it NE across south and central FL than offshore until it reaches the SC coast by 144hrs:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The CMC is pretty fast too. It shows a Monday evening landfall...

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps landfall

[cycloneye]

Nogaps landfall

Ivan,image doesnt work.

[southerngale]

It works for me.

[JonathanBelles]

It works here.

[Brent]

Nogaps landfall

Ivan,image doesnt work.

Works for me. Landfall is up in the Apalachee Bay area.