Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[rockyman]

GFS 12z has initialized:

[Nimbus]

When does the next NOGAPS model run? They were mentioned in the 11 AM update as having the western most track outlier headed towards the northern gulf.

[rockyman]

When does the next NOGAPS model run? They were mentioned in the 11 AM update as having the western most track outlier headed towards the northern gulf.

Soon, I think...keep refreshing this page...once it starts, it'll show up as 2008081612

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... =ngp_namer

[rockyman]

12z GFS in 12 hours...between NE tip of Jamaica and Cuba heading WEST

[chris_fit]

Think this is the new GFDL.... Straight up the backbone of Florida....

Sat Aug 16 11:34:36 EDT 2008
WHXX04 KWBC 161128

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L



INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 16



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 18.6 71.6 275./12.0

6 18.8 73.3 278./16.4

12 19.1 74.4 288./10.7

18 19.3 75.4 281./ 9.0

24 19.7 76.3 291./ 9.5

30 20.2 77.3 295./10.8

36 20.9 78.1 312./10.5

42 21.5 78.9 310./ 9.7

48 22.4 79.6 320./10.8

54 23.4 80.4 322./13.0

60 24.1 80.8 328./ 7.4

66 25.0 80.7 7./ 9.6

72 26.2 80.9 353./11.7

78 27.2 80.6 14./10.5

84 28.4 80.4 12./12.0

90 29.4 80.3 4./10.0

96 30.3 79.9 24./ 9.2

102 31.5 79.6 13./13.0

108 32.7 79.2 22./12.1

114 33.5 78.7 28./ 8.9

120 34.2 78.5 21./ 6.8

126 34.9 78.2 20./ 7.8

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS 24 hours (8am Sunday).. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

Very near the NHC forecast point for the same time.

[SouthFLTropics]

Think this is the new GFDL.... Straight up the backbone of Florida....

Sat Aug 16 11:34:36 EDT 2008
WHXX04 KWBC 161128

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L



INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 16



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 18.6 71.6 275./12.0

6 18.8 73.3 278./16.4

12 19.1 74.4 288./10.7

18 19.3 75.4 281./ 9.0

24 19.7 76.3 291./ 9.5

30 20.2 77.3 295./10.8

36 20.9 78.1 312./10.5

42 21.5 78.9 310./ 9.7

48 22.4 79.6 320./10.8

54 23.4 80.4 322./13.0

60 24.1 80.8 328./ 7.4

66 25.0 80.7 7./ 9.6

72 26.2 80.9 353./11.7

78 27.2 80.6 14./10.5

84 28.4 80.4 12./12.0

90 29.4 80.3 4./10.0

96 30.3 79.9 24./ 9.2

102 31.5 79.6 13./13.0

108 32.7 79.2 22./12.1

114 33.5 78.7 28./ 8.9

120 34.2 78.5 21./ 6.8

126 34.9 78.2 20./ 7.8

I believe that is the 6Z...not the new one

[Ivanhater]

The GFDL doesnt come out for another hour or so..

[BensonTCwatcher]

I'd expect an east shift. NHC will adjust E slightly. The weakness is there for that. GFS solution seems reasonable run to run. No reason to jump ship yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS 42 hours (2am Monday)... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS 42 hours (2am Monday)... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

Based on the steering pattern I'm seeing so far in this run I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that this run may end up a gnat's hair further east than the previous run...JMO

SFT

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS 54 hours (Monday Afternoon)... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

Watch out Key West!

[JPmia]

I got my fingers crossed that the trough breaks down the ridge as quick as some of the models are indicating leaving that weakness to allow this bad girl to turn up toward peninsula of Florida which would be the best case scenario for everyone. South Florida and her lakes would get a refill and eventually GA and the western Carolinas would get some beneficial rains. If not and this is where I'm holding my breath and crossing my fingers Fay could be VERY devastating to the NE upper Gulf Coast with the potential of a major hurricane land-falling!!!!!!

Gee, I am not sure if I should thank you or not...lol...I know what you mean though. This is like a deja vu from 2004 with Charlie.

[cheezyWXguy]

Model shifts are likely to occur quite a bit, I think. Ive noticed that models usually tend shift from extreme one way to extreme the other way, until they reach the most likely solution for a particular system, unless they can lock it, just like that (aka dolly, edouard). I think this maybe too far east, and I think a landfall on the eastern florida peninsula seems probable in my opinion

you mean the western coast right because if not then what you just said makes no sense

lol sorry i mean panhandle

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS 72 hours (Tuesday morning)...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072l.gif

Moving inland into SW Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the GFS has Fay a bit further west at this point. Landfall near Tampa?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the GFS has Fay a bit further west at this point. Landfall near Tampa?

Looks identical to the 6z run, IMO. It looks no further west to me..

6z GFS landfall - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_078l.gif

12z GFS landfall - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072l.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the GFS has Fay a bit further west at this point. Landfall near Tampa?

That's not what I'm seeing...I'm thinking more like Cape Coral to Everglades City

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS 84 hours (Tuesday Evening)..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_084l.gif

Inland over central Florida.

[edbri871]

Looks like its making landfall exactly where the NHC predicts Fort Myers Area