Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[rockyman]

Definite eastward shift in the model spread:

[txwatcher91]

While the Nam is not generally a good tropical model, it seems to move Fay over East Cuba, and has been doing it the past several days. Here is the latest at 18hr.

[txwatcher91]

Also, the synoptics of the Nam show the ridge weakening over S FL and East FL, while it is not good for the tropics, I think in the 24 hr. range the nam is pretty good at forecasting the strength of the ridge, and it shows it continuing to weaken.

[deltadog03]

I wouldn't really trust the 6z suite of models. They may nudge the track a little east, but the GFS is the one that dictates a lot the bams and GFDL data...

[Evil Jeremy]

Does the 12z GFS run at 10:30 or 11:30?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Does the 12z GFS run at 10:30 or 11:30?

1130 EST

[dixiebreeze]

She won't be over East Cuba:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

I got my fingers crossed that the trough breaks down the ridge as quick as some of the models are indicating leaving that weakness to allow this bad girl to turn up toward peninsula of Florida which would be the best case scenario for everyone. South Florida and her lakes would get a refill and eventually GA and the western Carolinas would get some beneficial rains. If not and this is where I'm holding my breath and crossing my fingers Fay could be VERY devastating to the NE upper Gulf Coast with the potential of a major hurricane land-falling!!!!!!

[Scorpion]

Good thing the NAM is bad... because it would be a nasty scenario for South FL.

[Blown Away]

Big shift E in models.

[Steve H.]

What is your basis for a big shift east in the models? Or were you basing that on the UL NAM chart?

[Trader Ron]

Big shift E in models.

Just looked at the HWRF, GFS and CMC. They still show a West Coast Florida landfall. Of course they MIGHT change in the coming day's.

[gatorcane]

shift shift shift....models going with climo (which indicates Southern FL or E of FL) as I expected...lots of shifts coming though so lets see what happens. Some shifts west and east are inevitable.

[Thunder44]

Definite eastward shift in the model spread:

Most of those models are junk. Wait for the 12z Globals to come out.

[gatorcane]

folks for anybody that wants to see what storms done in the past in this area here is the link. You will see what I mean by CLIMO:

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

I'm not basing everything on CLIMO but I think it can give us a bit of a clue of what may happen.

[SouthFLTropics]

shift shift shift....models going with climo (which indicates SE FL or E of FL) as I expected...lots of shifts coming though so lets see what happens.

With all due respect Gator...because I do enjoy your posts...but I don't believe that models take climo into account when making their runs. They use the evidence that is put into them based on the steering current data. I could be wrong but it's just a thought.

SFT

[gatorcane]

of course they don't take climo but I always think its interesting to look at it to see where past storms have gone.

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow:

of course they don't take climo but I always think its interesting to look at it to see where past storms have gone.

Now that I would agree with...from an amatuer point of view

SFT

[cheezyWXguy]

Model shifts are likely to occur quite a bit, I think. Ive noticed that models usually tend shift from extreme one way to extreme the other way, until they reach the most likely solution for a particular system, unless they can lock it, just like that (aka dolly, edouard). I think this maybe too far east, and I think a landfall on the eastern florida peninsula seems probable in my opinion

[Bocadude85]

Model shifts are likely to occur quite a bit, I think. Ive noticed that models usually tend shift from extreme one way to extreme the other way, until they reach the most likely solution for a particular system, unless they can lock it, just like that (aka dolly, edouard). I think this maybe too far east, and I think a landfall on the eastern florida peninsula seems probable in my opinion

you mean the western coast right because if not then what you just said makes no sense