Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tropical Storm Force winds extend out quite a bit from the center,
regardless of the exact path it is likely a significant portion
of the Florida peninsula on both coasts will have tropical
storm force winds.

[JPmia]

Interesting the Euro model is now along SFL east coast. This doesn't surprise...with the shifting of the models back and forth and the angle of the approach to FL...this will be a hard one to pinpoint landfall.

[cycloneye]

Shear increases after 84 hours according the the latest SHIP forecast at 12:00 UTC.

Code: Select all

   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *         FAY  AL062008  08/16/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    40    42    45    48    50    58    64    70    75    78    78    79    74
V (KT) LAND       40    42    45    48    49    57    47    52    56    60    59    43    32
V (KT) LGE mod    40    41    42    45    42    52    45    48    55    63    68    49    34

SHEAR (KTS)       12     9     7     8     8    11    10     6     8    15    16    24    27
SHEAR DIR        321   319   335   326   292   253   306   326   303   260   257   252   253
SST (C)         28.9  29.0  29.0  29.2  29.4  29.6  29.8  29.8  29.9  29.6  29.2  28.8  27.8
POT. INT. (KT)   151   153   152   155   159   162   166   166   167   162   155   148   133
ADJ. POT. INT.   145   147   145   147   149   151   152   150   149   142   134   126   112
200 MB T (C)   -53.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C)      13    13    13    13    12    12    11    11    10    10     7     7     4
700-500 MB RH     51    57    52    52    55    56    58    59    62    64    71    70    72
GFS VTEX (KT)     13    13    14    14    12    14    14    14    15    15    13    14    12
850 MB ENV VOR     2    11    10     0    -8   -11   -11   -15    -3    -9    -7    -3   -10
200 MB DIV        28    70    -3   -18   -24    -6    23    18    13    26    38    60    40
LAND (KM)         32    33    77    42     1    67   -44    88    81    66    78  -104  -287
LAT (DEG N)     18.7  18.9  19.1  19.5  19.9  20.9  22.4  24.0  25.7  27.4  29.2  31.0  32.7
LONG(DEG W)     72.9  74.2  75.5  76.6  77.6  79.3  80.8  81.8  82.5  83.3  84.1  84.6  84.7
STM SPEED (KT)    12    12    12    11    10    10     9     9     9     9     9     9     8
HEAT CONTENT       4    87    89    86    73    34  9999    89    11    13     6  9999  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13      CX,CY: -12/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  40            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  602  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  30.2 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  82.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   8.  12.  17.  20.  23.  25.  25.  25.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  10.  10.   9.   7.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -2.  -1.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   8.  10.  18.  24.  31.  37.  40.  40.  41.  36.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   5.   8.  10.  18.  24.  30.  35.  38.  38.  39.  34.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008        FAY 08/16/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  10.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 106.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  66.6 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  18.6 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  67.8 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    22% is   1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    13% is   1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     8% is   1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008        FAY 08/16/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             


[gatorcane]

Interesting the Euro model is now along SFL east coast. This doesn't surprise...with the shifting of the models back and forth and the angle of the approach to FL...this will be a hard one to pinpoint landfall.

the 12Z I am looking has is along the FL West Coast. What is your link?

[Blown Away]

Interesting the Euro model is now along SFL east coast. This doesn't surprise...with the shifting of the models back and forth and the angle of the approach to FL...this will be a hard one to pinpoint landfall.

Please post the link.

[JPmia]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Evil Jeremy]

The new BAM set is in, and the model plot has been updated. Lots of models over Florida now:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_06.gif

[JPmia]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005062212!!!step/

Does it look like it is going a little NNE toward SFL? almost a brush and then back toward SC/GA.

[Emmett_Brown]

The new BAM set is in, and the model plot has been updated. Lots of models over Florida now:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_06.gif

Based on these models, I dont think the NHC will change their path. They kept it the same when the models went west, and now they are on the W side of the latest model envelop. Seems that the models are flopping either side of the official track, but slowly honing in on a track similar to NHC.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The new BAM set is in, and the model plot has been updated. Lots of models over Florida now:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_06.gif

Based on these models, I dont think the NHC will change their path. They kept it the same when the models went west, and now they are on the W side of the latest model envelop. Seems that the models are flopping either side of the official track, but slowly honing in on a track similar to NHC.

I think there is a STRONG possibility they bring it back to a WCFL landfall

[JPmia]

I think we will have to wait for the next round models around 12Z to know if their track will change. Derek said the last set of GFDL and HWRF were not to be used. The next model runs will be interesting to see.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If this becomes a hurricane north of Cuba then on the
NHC path hurricane force winds could impact Key West, Miami,
Naples, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, Sarasota,
Tampa, etc. and then the Florida Panhandle.

[Aquawind]

Aww darn a shift east in some of the models even..it's gonna be close.

[JPmia]

If this becomes a hurricane north of Cuba then on the
NHC path hurricane force winds could impact Key West, Miami,
Naples, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, Sarasota,
Tampa, etc. and then the Florida Panhandle.

That would be a true case of "there is no where to evacuate to" lol (hmm, not funny)

[jdray]

If this becomes a hurricane north of Cuba then on the
NHC path hurricane force winds could impact Key West, Miami,
Naples, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, Sarasota,
Tampa, etc. and then the Florida Panhandle.

In other words, a crappy 2 days for the entire state.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=5

Wheres FL?

[hurricanefloyd5]

If the models are still showing Hurricane Fay in the keys then if I were in the keys I would leave now because of what the models show and the forecast track!!!!!!!!!!that models have a good handle on this storm up to the keys area so yeah I would leave!!!!!!!1

[Ground_Zero_92]

Very true. I am pretty sure the evacuation order will be announced tomorrow for visitors and the following day for residents.

If the models are still showing Hurricane Fay in the keys then if I were in the keys I would leave now because of what the models show and the forecast track!!!!!!!!!!that models have a good handle on this storm up to the keys area so yeah I would leave!!!!!!!1

[maxx9512]

Just a quick question if someone can help me out.
Have the last couple of runs of the GFS had Fay lanfalling close to the SWFLA area?
If I remember correctly it has, interested cause thats were I'm at. Anybody know?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Just a quick question if someone can help me out.
Have the last couple of runs of the GFS had Fay lanfalling close to the SWFLA area?
If I remember correctly it has, interested cause thats were I'm at. Anybody know?

Yes..