Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Derek Ortt]

off of a 6Z run

THROW OUT THIS GFDL AND HWRF

Wait for the 12Z run

[Emmett_Brown]

They may leave the track alone... models shifted W yesterday, and E today, so it might be within their "noice" level until better agreement happens. IMO, could signal end of the W shift from late yesterday.

There has been a history of flip flop with this one. Interesting though... seems some part of FLPen is going to see this. Question is how strong... very problematic forecast intensity wise because of land.

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF also shifts east with landfall near where Charley did.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[johngaltfla]

off of a 6Z run

THROW OUT THIS GFDL AND HWRF

Wait for the 12Z run

Thank you Derek. Will the 6Z runs on Sunday be our tell tale run for the West Coast of Florida?

[Trader Ron]

Close to a Donna like track. Takes it all the way into N.C. Not good.

[ronjon]

06z HWRF also shifts east with landfall near where Charley did.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Now this run makes more sense. Pretty much true north up the peninsula after landfall. This storm is going to be a nail biter on the track. A little shift right or left will make all the difference on a west coast LF.

[gatorcane]

Hi folks nail-biting for sure. Lets see if other models shift E although I agree with Derek throw them out for the time being

[Blown Away]

Fay is only at 72W, the eastern most point in SFL is at 80W (@WPB), Miami is even a bit farther W, so Fay is still 480 miles east of the east coast of SFL. IMO there is plenty of time for things to change to the E and even skirt E of SFL.

[gatorcane]

No doubt and why the NHC has SE FL well within the cone..

[AtlanticWind]

06z Nogaps also over S.Fla

[JPmia]

off of a 6Z run

THROW OUT THIS GFDL AND HWRF

Wait for the 12Z run

What happened to these model runs? Why should they be discarded? Just curious.

[OuterBanker]

Goofdl is Donna like. That has to be wrong.

[lonelymike]

off of a 6Z run

THROW OUT THIS GFDL AND HWRF

Wait for the 12Z run

Derek lives in Miami. If this verifies he's chainsmoking while holding on to his roof J/K D just poking some fun at ya.

[Blown Away]

Can we post more detail than just SFL landfall, with the Nogaps what city, Keys, Miami, Marco Island, etc. Fay is close enough we can be specific.

[rockyman]

06z Nogaps also over S.Fla

Do you have a link? My 6z NOGAPS is showing the Mobile landfall discussed earlier

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008081606

[O Town]

off of a 6Z run

THROW OUT THIS GFDL AND HWRF

Wait for the 12Z run

What happened to these model runs? Why should they be discarded? Just curious.

Old thread but a good read on models, look at the second post about your question.
viewtopic.php?p=1330638#1330638

[ronjon]

06Z NOGAPs still has a Mobile-Pen LF.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008081606

[Bocadude85]

didnt the models start trending east last night with the 00z runs?

[ronjon]

This is the trough that is supposed to pick up Fay and turn her NE according to 06Z GFDL?? Huh?

[tampastorm]

06z HWRF also shifts east with landfall near where Charley did.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

I guess the big difference being, unlike Charlie that then went to the east coast of FL, Fay should ride up the west coast.