Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[haml8]

Is this error? Winds have picked up a bit yes?

[RL3AO]

Is this error? Winds have picked up a bit yes?

Nope. FL winds about 50kt. Surface winds aren't even close to being that high. In fact a dropsonde showed surface winds of about 25 mph up there.

[haml8]

Is this error? Winds have picked up a bit yes?

Nope. FL winds about 50kt. Surface winds aren't even close to being that high. In fact a dropsonde showed surface winds of about 25 mph up there.

Thanks for keeping things in perspective, that is why I posted it to obtain a better understanding.

[Bocadude85]

Is the new GFDL out yet?

[SouthFloridawx]

Is this error? Winds have picked up a bit yes?

Nope. FL winds about 50kt. Surface winds aren't even close to being that high. In fact a dropsonde showed surface winds of about 25 mph up there.

Thanks for keeping things in perspective, that is why I posted it to obtain a better understanding.

Yeah they are flying at about 10,000 ft...

[cycloneye]

00z GFDL:

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L



INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 16



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 18.4 70.2 275./13.0

6 18.2 71.7 265./14.2

12 18.7 73.1 287./13.8

18 19.1 74.3 289./12.1

24 19.1 75.6 272./12.2

30 19.3 76.7 277./10.5

36 19.7 77.6 296./ 9.8

42 20.2 78.7 295./11.7

48 20.5 79.3 295./ 6.2

54 21.3 79.9 324./ 8.9

60 22.1 80.4 324./ 9.8

66 22.9 81.1 323./10.4

72 23.7 81.2 354./ 7.7

78 24.6 81.6 338./ 9.6

84 25.5 82.0 334./10.1

90 26.4 82.4 336./ 9.1

96 27.2 82.5 352./ 8.2

102 28.1 82.8 344./ 9.7

108 28.9 83.1 338./ 8.3

114 29.9 83.0 2./ 9.8

120 30.8 83.0 2./ 8.7

126 31.6 83.3 337./ 8.9

[Ivanhater]

00Z GFDL FAY

HOUR: .0 LONG: -70.22 LAT: 18.36 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.68 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.79
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -71.71 LAT: 18.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.86
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -73.10 LAT: 18.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.87
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -74.30 LAT: 19.08 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.28
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -75.59 LAT: 19.13 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.83
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -76.69 LAT: 19.27 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.84 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.15
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.61 LAT: 19.72 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.29
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -78.73 LAT: 20.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.52 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.54
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -79.32 LAT: 20.52 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.41 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.44
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -79.86 LAT: 21.26 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.37
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -80.45 LAT: 22.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.51
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -81.10 LAT: 22.92 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.04 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.18
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -81.18 LAT: 23.69 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.53 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.55
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -81.55 LAT: 24.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.08
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -82.00 LAT: 25.52 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.71 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.64
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -82.37 LAT: 26.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.42 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.20
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -82.48 LAT: 27.19 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.24
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -82.75 LAT: 28.13 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.29
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -83.06 LAT: 28.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.93
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -83.03 LAT: 29.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.02
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -83.00 LAT: 30.76 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.35 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.68
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -83.35 LAT: 31.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.42 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.55

[cycloneye]

00z UKMET:

592

WTNT80 EGRR 160531



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.08.2008



TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 69.4W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 16.08.2008 18.7N 69.4W MODERATE

12UTC 16.08.2008 20.1N 73.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 17.08.2008 20.4N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.08.2008 20.4N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.08.2008 21.5N 79.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.08.2008 23.1N 81.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.08.2008 23.8N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.08.2008 25.0N 83.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.08.2008 26.2N 83.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.08.2008 27.6N 84.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2008 29.3N 84.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2008 30.5N 84.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.08.2008 32.4N 85.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[SouthFloridawx]

GFDL... east 'eh?

[AL Chili Pepper]

Well, looks like the GFDL is weaker this go around.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Well, looks like the GFDL is weaker this go around.

It may see something, if it goes east=more land for it.

[Blown Away]

GFDL... east 'eh?

Wee bit, I think!

[Scorpion]

HWRF and GFDL are both East.

HWRF would be nasty though.

[SouthFloridawx]

NOGAPS... Hugs the SW FL Coast then goes to FL/AL area.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2008081600

[Blown Away]

Remarkable 5 day cluster of models, don't think that cluster will push the NHC track W at 5am. SFL is not out of the woods for sure.

[cheezyWXguy]

HWRF and GFDL are both East.

HWRF would be nasty though.

Arent they both based off of the gfs data?

[Scorpion]

Wouldn't that be something.. strengthening storm just off the coast but close enough to do damage and far enough to not weaken.

[Bocadude85]

Its all going to depend on where this turn happens could be the difference between south florida or big bend...

[Bocadude85]

would someone please post the hwrf link for me please?