Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[ronjon]

This is depressing...now NHC just offshore my house, Now with languge. Yikes!

IN SUMMARY...BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

[Lifesgud2]

Models will trend back and forth all day tomorrow, however most likely will skirt JUST west of Key West.

[ftolmsteen]

This is going to be like Charlie all over again when it comes to guessing the landfall. One nudge to the left or right could mean Naples or Mobile.

[SouthFLTropics]

New GFS and GFDL runs should be coming out soon shouldn't they?

[Steve]

MIKE,

Don't think we have much of a worry with this one, but since you are surfing the forum, you're probably paying more attention than most people and would obviously have a heads up if necessary.
---------------------------------------
Pretty amazed at how all the unrelated models have clustered this season.

Steve

[SouthFLTropics]

This is going to be like Charlie all over again when it comes to guessing the landfall. One nudge to the left or right could mean Naples or Mobile.

Angle of attack from the South will have major implications for the landfall as well as the track...Will it go up the west coast, run the spine, or even jog up the east coast...

SFT

[Innotech]

this really does give off an aura of charley. It is approaching at a similar angle according to forecasts and thats got to be giving forecasters fits.

[bucman1]

Maybe I'm missing something but isn't the trend west?

[Nimbus]

Key west is going to be in trouble, but the models could easily continue to trend west toward Mobile bay. Flood surge along the west coast of Florida would be a lot less with a track 100 miles further away, but that might up the wind intensity forecast further north at landfall.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey Steve, not concerned. Just trying to keep all possibilities open out there. Anyways think there is the chance this could slide more to the west because the ridge is stronger and the weakness never really develops or is as strong as forecast.

[x-y-no]

this really does give off an aura of charley. It is approaching at a similar angle according to forecasts and thats got to be giving forecasters fits.

Synoptic setup is quite different. This shallow trough will have progressed - so no move NE for Fay.

[hurricanej]

gfs at 18 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018m.gif

to pose a football term, she's splitting thru the uprights.... in this case Jamaica and Cuba.

[gatorcane]

30 hours she's still near the eastern tip of Cuba.

[hurricanej]

30 hours she's still near the eastern tip of Cuba.

you sure about that gatorcane. show me what you've got, cause what I am seeing here has it over Jamaica not near the eastern tip of cuba.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030m.gif

[GreenSky]

I smell a hurricane georges type track from the Keys onward....looks like peninsular Florida won't be affected much

[AL Chili Pepper]

this really does give off an aura of charley. It is approaching at a similar angle according to forecasts and thats got to be giving forecasters fits.

Synoptic setup is quite different. This shallow trough will have progressed - so no move NE for Fay.

Yep, and no unseasonably strong cold front to deal with as Charlie had.

[hurricanej]

42 hours, looks further south than 18z was:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042m.gif

i think this will be a bit west of earlier runs.

[gatorcane]

At 54 hours it makes a NW turn already and the ridge is broken across peninusla FL to the north.....

this run may be more RIGHT actually:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _054.shtml

[x-y-no]

Based on the mid-level, this run looks like lower Keys/SW Florida

[gatorcane]

Indeed it does lets see what pans out at the end

Round West side of Cuba heading NNW at 66 hours.