Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Rainband]

Asked this in another thread only answer I got was trough over the NE US. What is supposed to cause a weakness to develop in the ridge in 2 to 3 days to turn Fay nnw or north.? What are the chances of that actually happening.? Seems to me the models are shifting more to the west now as a couple of days ago they kept shifting more to the east before she was classified.

If your in the cone pay attention, if not then no worries.

That's not good advice. Since when did people outside of cones not need to worry? One slight shift left or right and then they would be in the cone.

well then when they are in...then worry

[tailgater]

Has this been posted yet .
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al062008.png

[sunnyday]

So, do most agree that SE Fl is totally out of the woods since the models keep moving westward?
Thank you for the info....

[canegrl04]

Has this been posted yet .
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al062008.png

says I don't have permission to access.What does it indicate?

[AdamFirst]

So, do most agree that SE Fl is totally out of the woods since the models keep moving westward?
Thank you for the info....

Absolutley not?

[lbvbl]

okay so what im noticing is despite the cone including the east coast of FL, it seems as if most people are leaning towards a westernly track, even more so than the current NHC track. Does anyone out there still predict a SE FL landfall? Is the likelihood still there? Why or why not?

[HURAKAN]

[Jason_B]

well then when they are in...then worry

So what do people do when the cone is shifted to them 2 hours prior to landfall? Stock up and board the windows 2 hours prior to landfall? Not to mention some storms are big enough to strongly affect people (mostly due to surge) outside of the cone. Anybody who lives in hurricanes alley knows if your at least within 100 miles or so, especially in the 5-day cone, you better keep a very close eye out and be ready to take action.

[JtSmarts]

I'm sure it's been said at least a few times in all these pages on this particular thread, but I'm sure everyone remembers Katrina's early model runs. First up the east side of FL, then up the center, then up the west coast, then up to the panhandle, then over to AL, then over to MS, then over to LA... I wonder if anyone saved Katrina's model runs for future reference??

Bottom line, the shift in track could be considerably west - or perhaps not at all. Three days out and we'll know. Otherwise, it's relatively all up in the air.

Katrina's Graphic Archive:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KA ... hics.shtml

*************************************************
It's amazing how Fay has not seen a significant reduction in convection since landfall. She is holding together better than I expected at this point.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I'm sure it's been said at least a few times in all these pages on this particular thread, but I'm sure everyone remembers Katrina's early model runs. First up the east side of FL, then up the center, then up the west coast, then up to the panhandle, then over to AL, then over to MS, then over to LA... I wonder if anyone saved Katrina's model runs for future reference??

Bottom line, the shift in track could be considerably west - or perhaps not at all. Three days out and we'll know. Otherwise, it's relatively all up in the air.

Katrina's Graphic Archive:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KA ... hics.shtml

*************************************************
It's amazing how Fay has not seen a significant reduction in convection since landfall. She is holding together better than I expected at this point.

Here's another one that has model guidance and nhc plots.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... &year=2005

[artist]

Has this been posted yet .
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al062008.png

says I don't have permission to access.What does it indicate?

if this doesn't work
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al062008.png

this will and then click on tracks -

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/

[Rainband]

The cone wont change two hours in advance. YOU WILL HAVE plenty of time to prepare. Use common sense and you will be fine.

[canegrl04]

Has this been posted yet .
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al062008.png

says I don't have permission to access.What does it indicate?

if this doesn't work
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al062008.png

this will and then click on tracks -

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/

Thanks.Second option worked

[ronjon]

Crap, 951 mb and 119 kt winds from the GFDL about 40 miles offshore of my house. I hope this changes over the next two days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081518-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[tailgater]

Has this been posted yet .
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al062008.png

says I don't have permission to access.What does it indicate?

Trying to learn photo bucket

That's a pretty big spread.

[lbvbl]

has NAM2 proved to be reliable?

[GTStorm]

Going west. What 's driving this trend? Might this eventually get as far as Alabama? Mississippi?

[Dean4Storms]

NHC has it land-falling near 31N 84W now, so they did shift the landfall to Apalachicola Bay.

[Ixolib]

Katrina's Graphic Archive:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KA ... hics.shtml

Here's another one that has model guidance and nhc plots.
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... &year=2005

Thanks Guys!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ixolib, I'm glad you brought that up. I mentioned that a few mornings ago when the models had it making landfall around Miami then moving west into the gulf. Surely this wont be a repeat of that track in '05. Seems there is a chance though. Seems that the models could be under-estimating the strength of ridge or over-estimating the weakness that is forecast to develop if it does at all. Everyone was so confident Katrina was going to make landfall in the panhandle or further east because all the models said so and then day after day they kept shifting west. Don't think they have a good handle of what is going on yet, will have to wait and see.