Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[HurricaneQueen]

>>I'm not sure of the historical record...but I don't recall too many north/northeast moving storms affecting the big bend during the peak of the season when waters are warm and shear tends to be lower.

I think it's pretty shallow there as well - as to the shelf and all. Probably could build up quite a major surge for Citrus around to Taylor Counties. Except for some fishing villages, I don't think there are a whole lot of people up that way (Lake City is probably the biggest city I've been to in that region) which is further up. I don't think anyone lives in Dixie, Taylor or Levy Counties (relative to much of the rest of Florida) - not that I wish harm on anyone, but there isn't much that way if someone actually did have to take a big hit IMHO.

Steve

Tell that to Dixiebreeze.

This storm is truly nerve wracking at this point. Never thought I'd wish away a weekend but I am very anxious to see where Fay decides to visit. I have a feeling that no matter what she does, we will feel the effects in SW. FL. Only consolation at this point is that we are in the center of the five day cone.

But tonight, thoughts and prayers are with our neighbors to the South.

Lynn

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC now on the eastern edge of the models...

Looks that way but the left ones are the Bamms and Lbar..

[Noles2006]

NHC now on the eastern edge of the models...

Looks that way but the left ones are the Bamms and Lbar..

Winner, winner
Chicken dinner!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would not suprize me one hair if this thing stayed southward in made it to the channel. In which case got to around 90 west as it is hooking northward. It is possible.

[johngaltfla]

I'm going to be quite honest. Charlie was a nutty storm also. But when and where it comes of the D.R. makes all the difference in the world. I'll give it 24-36 hours before getting excited. Preps being reviewed this weekend? You betcha.

Just a reminder to all of my fellow West Coasters; storms can intensify in hours, not just days in our shallow hot waters off our coasts. So if you live anywhere from Marco Island to Crystal River, ye had best have your antennae up.

The models will not get a good fix UNTIL it's back over open water and we get good recon data. Until then, just enjoy the computer shows.

Just my opinion.

[dixiebreeze]

>>I'm not sure of the historical record...but I don't recall too many north/northeast moving storms affecting the big bend during the peak of the season when waters are warm and shear tends to be lower.

I think it's pretty shallow there as well - as to the shelf and all. Probably could build up quite a major surge for Citrus around to Taylor Counties. Except for some fishing villages, I don't think there are a whole lot of people up that way (Lake City is probably the biggest city I've been to in that region) which is further up. I don't think anyone lives in Dixie, Taylor or Levy Counties (relative to much of the rest of Florida) - not that I wish harm on anyone, but there isn't much that way if someone actually did have to take a big hit IMHO.

Steve

Guess you haven't traveled the west central coast of Florida much. Citrus County has a pop. of more than 130,000. Levy and Taylor Counties less. (Lake City is not in the vicinity)

The gulf shelf that influences storm surge is from Levy to Citrus counties and is considered one of the most dangerous surge areas in the nation, along with the South Bay of Long Island.

I lived less than 100 yards from the GOM during H. Elena -- in Citrus county about 8 miles from the GOM during the NOName Storm of '93 and the surge was within a block of our home. This area has been through many 'canes and TS over the years.

The damage and danger to west central Florida with a direct hit is incaluable. Tampa Bay/St. Pete, of course, is much more populated and even worse and their evacuation route leads to us.

[canegrl04]

It would not suprize me one hair if this thing stayed southward in made it to the channel. In which case got to around 90 west as it is hooking northward. It is possible.

In which case Fay would have plenty of water to traverse and become a major cane.Very telling that all the models are trending staying South of Cuba

[MiamiensisWx]

>>I'm not sure of the historical record...but I don't recall too many north/northeast moving storms affecting the big bend during the peak of the season when waters are warm and shear tends to be lower.

I think it's pretty shallow there as well - as to the shelf and all. Probably could build up quite a major surge for Citrus around to Taylor Counties. Except for some fishing villages, I don't think there are a whole lot of people up that way (Lake City is probably the biggest city I've been to in that region) which is further up. I don't think anyone lives in Dixie, Taylor or Levy Counties (relative to much of the rest of Florida) - not that I wish harm on anyone, but there isn't much that way if someone actually did have to take a big hit IMHO.

Steve

The problem with sustaining a major in the extreme NE gulf (especially one moving almost due N as the models are progging) is that its inflow is going to pulled up across the land mass of Florida and then over the panhandle.

Actually, I believe the bolded portion may be false. Florida is not a mountainous land mass such as Hispaniola, so TCs won't have any issues with disruption of the low level inflow. In fact, TCs have intensified as they approached the Big Bend region. Examples include the 1896 hurricane (Cat 3 near Cedar Key at 110 kt/960 mb) and Hurricane Easy west of Tampa Bay. More than one major hurricane has made landfall between Tarpon Springs and Port St. Joe - they merely have not occurred in recent times, though there have been very close calls and scares like Elena in 1985. In 1950, Cedar Key was hit hard by Category 3 Hurricane Easy, which made landfall near the town and looped prior to a second landfall near Tarpon Springs. The TC was a Category 3 hurricane at both landfalls. In 1877 and 1851, major (Cat 3) hurricanes affected the Apalachicola/St. Marks/Tallahassee corridor, causing very significant coastal and inland damage. In 1935, the powerful Labor Day hurricane made landfall NW of Cedar Key near Cross City, Florida after affecting the Florida Keys at 160 kt/892 mb. The 1935 TC was a Category 2 hurricane at landfall on the Big Bend region, though recent reanalysis indicates it may have been a Category 3 hurricane (100 kt/960 mb).

A TC with a large wind field would be significant in regards to surge along this region, and a Cat 1/2 (or strong TS) would cause extensive wind and surge damage in local areas.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Asked this in another thread only answer I got was trough over the NE US. What is supposed to cause a weakness to develop in the ridge in 2 to 3 days to turn Fay nnw or north.? What are the chances of that actually happening.? Seems to me the models are shifting more to the west now as a couple of days ago they kept shifting more to the east before she was classified.

[Rainband]

Asked this in another thread only answer I got was trough over the NE US. What is supposed to cause a weakness to develop in the ridge in 2 to 3 days to turn Fay nnw or north.? What are the chances of that actually happening.? Seems to me the models are shifting more to the west now as a couple of days ago they kept shifting more to the east before she was classified.

If your in the cone pay attention, if not then no worries.

[lonelymike]

Asked this in another thread only answer I got was trough over the NE US. What is supposed to cause a weakness to develop in the ridge in 2 to 3 days to turn Fay nnw or north.? What are the chances of that actually happening.? Seems to me the models are shifting more to the west now as a couple of days ago they kept shifting more to the east before she was classified.

GFS develops a low and runs it east along the coast of the panhandle I believe this is what causes the weakness in the ridge.

[RL3AO]

Asked this in another thread only answer I got was trough over the NE US. What is supposed to cause a weakness to develop in the ridge in 2 to 3 days to turn Fay nnw or north.? What are the chances of that actually happening.? Seems to me the models are shifting more to the west now as a couple of days ago they kept shifting more to the east before she was classified.

If your in the cone pay attention, if not then no worries.

IMO, that is horrible advice. Especially for a system with this much uncertainty.

[Chacor]

Asked this in another thread only answer I got was trough over the NE US. What is supposed to cause a weakness to develop in the ridge in 2 to 3 days to turn Fay nnw or north.? What are the chances of that actually happening.? Seems to me the models are shifting more to the west now as a couple of days ago they kept shifting more to the east before she was classified.

If your in the cone pay attention, if not then no worries.

That's not good advice. Since when did people outside of cones not need to worry? One slight shift left or right and then they would be in the cone.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Rainband, the cone can change with every update. So that does not really help me much.

[Noles2006]

Rainband, the cone can change with every update. So that does not really help me much.

Just watch it, that's all we can do for now...

[TheShrimper]

Hey, leave Rainband alone...he's in the line of fire here and has more concerns at this point in time than alot of others. Everyone take a powder for a few minutes.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Plan on it noles, just trying to figure where to look for what will cause the supposed weakness to form and when it will happen.

[gatorcane]

well the trend seems west tonight so there quite possible will be about a 50 mile west shift in the cone or so I'm guessing --- just looking at the latest guidance.

One interesting thing to ponder. If you look back at 150 years of climatology and query storm tracks with 65 nautical miles of Fay's current position, you will find the following:

-4 systems were western or Central GOM systems
-1 system affected the Panhandle of FL
-4 systems impacted SE Florida
-1 system recurved east of the United States

The system that impacted the panhandle was way back in 1851.
The steering currents do not seem favorable for a Western GOM threat. Based on climatology a Southern FL hit along the East coast appears the likely scenario.

quick bump

[Ixolib]

I'm sure it's been said at least a few times in all these pages on this particular thread, but I'm sure everyone remembers Katrina's early model runs. First up the east side of FL, then up the center, then up the west coast, then up to the panhandle, then over to AL, then over to MS, then over to LA... I wonder if anyone saved Katrina's model runs for future reference??

Bottom line, the shift in track could be considerably west - or perhaps not at all. Three days out and we'll know. Otherwise, it's relatively all up in the air.

[Jason_B]

Asked this in another thread only answer I got was trough over the NE US. What is supposed to cause a weakness to develop in the ridge in 2 to 3 days to turn Fay nnw or north.? What are the chances of that actually happening.? Seems to me the models are shifting more to the west now as a couple of days ago they kept shifting more to the east before she was classified.

If your in the cone pay attention, if not then no worries.

No offense but that's a very dangerous thing to say, especially THIS early in the game.