Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[rockyman]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

HWRF and GFDL means 18 foot storm surge tampa bay northward! THat
would flood and gut out my house!! The SURGE would be 18 feet with
a category 3 even if the eye is 140 miles offshore

[wxsouth]

>>My daughter just saw the cone and in the typical self-centeredness of the young said "that thing cannot go to Tallahassee!!! That's the middle of (sorority) Rush Week!"

Just goes to show what happens when you don't beat them enough as yung'uns. My youngest brother also attended and graduated from FSU (oh oh oh, oh oh oh oh oh) but fortunately, he didn't go for the whole rent a friend thing.

>>18Z GFDL...Cat 3 into Florida Big Bend
>>18Z HWRF...Cat 4 into Apalachicola

Comments on these - outside of the 1950 storm (Hurricane Easy was it?), it would be extremely rare for a major to landfall in that area. As for the Cat 4 into Apalachicola, I'd believe that when I see it. I don't have a problem with a track up that way, just a track as a Cat 4. That's just me.

Steve

I agree that it would be extremely rare to get a major east of Apalachicola...but not impossible. Note that the GFDL actually starts weakening the system rather quickly just before landfall in the big bend. The HWRF is much scarier in the sense that the it would be getting far enough west to really worry about the intensity not dropping off...and that strength of storm could send a storm surge 10-15 miles inland in the big bend.

I'm not sure of the historical record...but I don't recall too many north/northeast moving storms affecting the big bend during the peak of the season when waters are warm and shear tends to be lower.

Regardless...there is lots of time to monitor. No forecast will have much confidence until the track over the greater antilles is a little more played out and the system consolidates.

[MiamiensisWx]

The Big Bend is extremely surge prone, so even a TS/Cat 1 with a large wind radii would produce a relatively significant surge in some local areas. An analogous example is the March 1993 Superstorm, which produced high tides and storm surge in the region.

[Steve]

>>I'm not sure of the historical record...but I don't recall too many north/northeast moving storms affecting the big bend during the peak of the season when waters are warm and shear tends to be lower.

I think it's pretty shallow there as well - as to the shelf and all. Probably could build up quite a major surge for Citrus around to Taylor Counties. Except for some fishing villages, I don't think there are a whole lot of people up that way (Lake City is probably the biggest city I've been to in that region) which is further up. I don't think anyone lives in Dixie, Taylor or Levy Counties (relative to much of the rest of Florida) - not that I wish harm on anyone, but there isn't much that way if someone actually did have to take a big hit IMHO.

Steve

[Ivanhater]

>>I'm not sure of the historical record...but I don't recall too many north/northeast moving storms affecting the big bend during the peak of the season when waters are warm and shear tends to be lower.

I think it's pretty shallow there as well - as to the shelf and all. Probably could build up quite a major surge for Citrus around to Taylor Counties. Except for some fishing villages, I don't think there are a whole lot of people up that way (Lake City is probably the biggest city I've been to in that region) which is further up. I don't think anyone lives in Dixie, Taylor or Levy Counties (relative to much of the rest of Florida) - not that I wish harm on anyone, but there isn't much that way if someone actually did have to take a big hit IMHO.

Steve

Yeah Steve, that would be an ok place to make landfall in Florida, the Forgotten Coast, low Popluation compared to the western panhandle and Peninsula

[Rainband]

>>I'm not sure of the historical record...but I don't recall too many north/northeast moving storms affecting the big bend during the peak of the season when waters are warm and shear tends to be lower.

I think it's pretty shallow there as well - as to the shelf and all. Probably could build up quite a major surge for Citrus around to Taylor Counties. Except for some fishing villages, I don't think there are a whole lot of people up that way (Lake City is probably the biggest city I've been to in that region) which is further up. I don't think anyone lives in Dixie, Taylor or Levy Counties (relative to much of the rest of Florida) - not that I wish harm on anyone, but there isn't much that way if someone actually did have to take a big hit IMHO.

Steve

Hey bud Actually I think the surge would be just as bad for Pinellas northward because the topography of the GOM and motion of the storm. Hopefully this dissipates

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 160012
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0012 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080816 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080816 0000 080816 1200 080817 0000 080817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 70.2W 19.1N 73.1W 19.7N 75.7W 20.1N 78.2W
BAMD 18.6N 70.2W 18.9N 72.8W 19.4N 75.0W 20.2N 77.0W
BAMM 18.6N 70.2W 18.9N 73.0W 19.4N 75.4W 20.1N 77.7W
LBAR 18.6N 70.2W 18.9N 72.9W 19.4N 75.6W 19.9N 78.1W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 61KTS 67KTS
DSHP 40KTS 37KTS 47KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080818 0000 080819 0000 080820 0000 080821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 80.5W 22.1N 83.3W 23.9N 84.6W 25.9N 85.7W
BAMD 21.4N 78.8W 24.4N 81.0W 27.6N 82.6W 30.0N 84.3W
BAMM 21.0N 79.5W 23.3N 82.1W 25.7N 83.6W 27.9N 84.7W
LBAR 20.8N 80.3W 23.2N 83.5W 27.0N 85.2W 30.8N 86.5W
SHIP 75KTS 84KTS 88KTS 85KTS
DSHP 56KTS 47KTS 44KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 70.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 67.4W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 64.6W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

$$
NNNN

[Ivanhater]

Track is going to be shifted West

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

the track out to 3 days usually is close to accurate, the 5 day shifts
a lot so key west is really likely to be hit but the day 4 and 5 positions
might change.

[MusicCityMan]

how far of a shift ya think?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

ANY WEST SHIFT within 150 miles of the FL coast would
Flood Tampa Bay with a serious storm surge! If it is category
3, my house gets gutted out in 18 foot surge even if the storm
stays 100 miles west of Tampa.
That is why I am VERY AFRAID of GFDL/HWRF WEST SHIFT
and CATEGORY 3/4 INTENSITY.

[TheShrimper]

Hey, I've got property in Dixie County (OldTown). I'm 20 miles from the coast, but Horseshoe Beach, Suwuanne and Stienahatchie would be no more. The mobiles there are built on pilings 20 ft. in the air, and not very well at that. You are right that there is not much there, but that is the way we like it.

[Ivanhater]

how far of a shift ya think?

If I had to guess they will put it in the middle of the models around Apalachicola

[HurricaneBelle]

>>I'm not sure of the historical record...but I don't recall too many north/northeast moving storms affecting the big bend during the peak of the season when waters are warm and shear tends to be lower.

I think it's pretty shallow there as well - as to the shelf and all. Probably could build up quite a major surge for Citrus around to Taylor Counties. Except for some fishing villages, I don't think there are a whole lot of people up that way (Lake City is probably the biggest city I've been to in that region) which is further up. I don't think anyone lives in Dixie, Taylor or Levy Counties (relative to much of the rest of Florida) - not that I wish harm on anyone, but there isn't much that way if someone actually did have to take a big hit IMHO.

Steve

The problem with sustaining a major in the extreme NE gulf (especially one moving almost due N as the models are progging) is that its inflow is going to pulled up across the land mass of Florida and then over the panhandle.

[JPmia]

I still think it is way to early to be pinpointing landfall locations..these model runs are scary to look at, but will they verify? I think we'll probably see some more swings east and west over the next couple of days. One thing seems certain (maybe) that it will go north at some point and most likely somewhere in Florida.

[Ivanhater]

NHC now on the eastern edge of the models...

[Rainband]

Track is going to be shifted West

bad news for the west coast

[Ivanhater]

Track is going to be shifted West

bad news for the west coast

Yep, could be very bad

[AtlanticWind]

NHC now on the eastern edge of the models...

Those are not all of the models plus the lbar and bam shallow are not used