Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[LCfromFL]

My daughter just saw the cone and in the typical self-centeredness of the young said "that thing cannot go to Tallahassee!!! That's the middle of (sorority) Rush Week!" Ahhhh...to be that young and self centered again. She's leaving for FSU on Sunday.

I am rather concerned about the rain from this thing if it traverses anywhere near here. We've had ALOT of rain here recently - to the point that we could have a flooding issue (the creek behind my house flooded with a backdoor storm in 96 (Josephine) came nearby). We actually had water in my house with Josephine. UGH.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL:

071
WHXX04 KWBC 152329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.3 68.7 275./12.0
6 18.2 69.8 266./10.8
12 18.0 71.8 264./18.4
18 18.5 73.3 287./15.0
24 19.0 74.4 293./11.9
30 19.0 75.6 273./11.2
36 19.1 76.6 273./ 9.6
42 19.5 77.5 292./ 9.5
48 20.1 78.4 305./10.5
54 20.5 79.3 296./ 9.2
60 21.1 79.8 322./ 7.7
66 21.9 80.5 317./10.3
72 22.7 81.2 318./ 9.9
78 23.3 81.5 333./ 7.3
84 24.1 82.2 320./10.0
90 24.9 82.6 331./ 8.5
96 26.0 83.0 339./11.2
102 26.7 83.3 337./ 7.9
108 27.6 83.6 342./ 9.4
114 28.4 83.8 346./ 8.5
120 29.2 83.9 353./ 7.8
126 30.0 83.9 359./ 7.4

In the ladder part of run it slows Fay.

[lrak]

Hello,

Why is this run so very different?

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

ok that graphic messed up my tummy, where did that come from? This thing already looks like its going the other direction.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL shifts East..Little more in line with Others...

[RL3AO]

Hello,

Why is this run so very different?

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

ok that graphic messed up my tummy, where did that come from? This thing already looks like its going the other direction.

Those are the 20 GFS Ensambles. No idea what they are moving due west.

[Bocadude85]

wonder if the track could be similar to cleo in 1964

[Blown Away]

What intensity does the HWRF has when it hits SFL?

[artist]

Hello,

Why is this run so very different?

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

ok that graphic messed up my tummy, where did that come from? This thing already looks like its going the other direction.

Those are the 20 GFS Ensambles. No idea what they are moving due west.

It appears to me maybe they were initialised much too far south?

[wxsouth]

18Z GFDL...Cat 3 into Florida Big Bend
18Z HWRF...Cat 4 into Apalachicola

[Ivanhater]

GFDL shifts East..Little more in line with Others...

No, it went west

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL shifts East..Little more in line with Others...

No, it went west

It was about 75 miles further west in the 12z? partly because of that cruise it took around DR..

[Steve]

>>My daughter just saw the cone and in the typical self-centeredness of the young said "that thing cannot go to Tallahassee!!! That's the middle of (sorority) Rush Week!"

Just goes to show what happens when you don't beat them enough as yung'uns. My youngest brother also attended and graduated from FSU (oh oh oh, oh oh oh oh oh) but fortunately, he didn't go for the whole rent a friend thing.

>>18Z GFDL...Cat 3 into Florida Big Bend
>>18Z HWRF...Cat 4 into Apalachicola

Comments on these - outside of the 1950 storm (Hurricane Easy was it?), it would be extremely rare for a major to landfall in that area. As for the Cat 4 into Apalachicola, I'd believe that when I see it. I don't have a problem with a track up that way, just a track as a Cat 4. That's just me.

Steve

[Ivanhater]

HWRF text...

HWRF

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -68.60 LAT: 18.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -69.60 LAT: 18.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -71.40 LAT: 18.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -73.00 LAT: 18.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -74.30 LAT: 18.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -75.10 LAT: 18.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -76.10 LAT: 18.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -77.10 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 77.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -78.00 LAT: 19.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -78.50 LAT: 19.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -79.20 LAT: 20.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 111.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -80.00 LAT: 21.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -80.90 LAT: 22.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -81.60 LAT: 23.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -82.40 LAT: 23.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 101.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -83.20 LAT: 24.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 114.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -83.90 LAT: 25.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 120.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -84.30 LAT: 26.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 120.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -84.70 LAT: 27.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 107.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -84.80 LAT: 29.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 116.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -84.90 LAT: 30.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -84.80 LAT: 31.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00

[DESTRUCTION5]

Now that one shifted West...

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf 928mb hurricane big bend of florida..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
gfdl

950mb same place

[rockyman]

[cycloneye]

[JPmia]

the storm surge from that angle of landfall would be catastrophic to the Big Bend area. Yikes.

[Aric Dunn]

the storm surge from that angle of landfall would be catastrophic to the Big Bend area. Yikes.

it would push so much water into tampa bay it would be ridiculus

[Bocadude85]

GFDL shifts East..Little more in line with Others...

No, it went west

no it shifted east the 12z had it at 85.2 18z doesnt go past 84