Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[LSU2001]

I don't like the west shift at all. However, I concur with Steve that this type of track rarely verifies esp on early model runs. I think we have a day or so before the runs firm up and we have a good idea of landfall. Right now I am cautiously optimistic but watching closely. I am in the 72 hour evac zone so I gotta get out early. Problem is I have to go out of town this weekend so If it looks even a little like south Louisiana may get it my window of prepping my home will be greatly reduced. Oh well gotta wait and see
Tim

Oh yeah the Gator head makes me physically ill you need a few more stripes
GO TIGERS!!!

[Trader Ron]

I'm really worried about intensity. A number of recent cyclones have intensified, before landfall.

[lonelymike]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081512-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Dean,

That's not good...that's a 120mph Cane making landfall around Indian Pass

Tell me about it. I thought the trend would come westward yesterday but I didn't expect this much westward, lets hope its a fluke run.

That solution is already too far south to verify at this time.

[TSmith274]

I'm not sure which is worse... the Gator head or the pic of Nick Saban holding that LSU crystal! Blasphemous.


I'm looking forward to tomorrow's runs. I don't like the westward trend, but it being so early in the game... not concerned yet. Luckily for Florida... the current forecast might involve enough land interaction to keep Fay from becoming too serious. Now if it swings out into the central gulf, somebody is going to have a serious problem. Time will tell.

[AdvAutoBob]

I'll wait until the later models before really getting concerned... but being vigilant, nonetheless

(better fuel up the dually before my motorcycle ride to Tampa tomorrow, tho)

[Dean4Storms]

That solution is already too far south to verify at this time.[/quote]

Not necessarily, but I hopeth your righteth.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm not sure which is worse... the Gator head or the pic of Nick Saban holding that LSU crystal! Blasphemous.

.

Heehee ROLL TIDE !!!!!

OK have to do it...TEBOW!!! TEBOW!!!

Ok back on topic...

[jaxfladude]

ATTENTION ALL:
Storm2k Sports Center:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=17

Discuss there for Sports(Fay related) and how your team's mascot would be best prepared for a hurricane...

[Dean4Storms]

Never mind, scratch that.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Never mind, scratch that.

LOL...Was gonna Say thats because he becomes GOD during the season..

[artist]

I just bought a house in the West Palm Beach area. I'm mad right now

Little early in the game for that

Perhaps but its just perfect timing if you know what I mean...haven't been in the house for more than 2 weeks yet...shouldn't have known Aug was a bad month to close in Southern Florida

at least you closed before this . They may not have if it were to close now. They would have put it off as they do when it is this close.

[canetracker]

Hello South Florida...The GFS @ 84 hours out



500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_084l.gif

[KWT]

Well the models have nearly all moved westwards, even the ECM is now showing a west Florida hit, seems like the models overegged the weakness present and instead only show a bend around the outer part of the high pressure cell.

I think the GFDL solution maybe a little far west but its generally got the right idea in terms of synoptics and if it does take GFDL track then a major hurricane would be odds on.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS...

12 hrs (2am Sat) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

24 hrs (2pm Sat) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

36 hrs (2am Sun) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

48 hrs (2pm Sun) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

60 hrs (2am Mon) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

72 hrs (2pm Mon) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

84 hrs (2am Tues) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

96 hrs (2pm Tues) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

102 hrs (2am Wed) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

[lonelymike]

What's the windspeed on the GFS extreme?

[KWT]

Hmmm 18z GFS close to the best case set-up really, gets some time before Cuba landfall to maybe ramp up but only 12-24hrs over the gulf before heading inland, enough time for it to become a hurricane but nothing as extreme as the GFDL solution.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What's the windspeed on the GFS extreme?

I don't know. Unlike with the GFDL and HWRF, I am not able to obtain intensity information from the GFS. By the looks of it though, I would say that it appears to be at least a tropical storm.

[Dean4Storms]

Well the GFS that far out will likely be off one way or the other, if it is off by say just 100 miles to the east we got trouble up here in the Panhandle.

[canetracker]

Well the GFS that far out will likely be off one way or the other, if it is off by say just 100 miles to the east we got trouble up here in the Panhandle but sure is riding the West Coast of Florida

108 hr getting close to the Panhandle:

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I really don't like the looks of the GFDL - its showing a 960mb 111kt storm into Apalachicola / big bend area.