Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1521 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:13 pm

Ivanhater wrote::uarrow:

Central Gulf coast


Huh? check again FL peninsula still
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1522 Postby Johnny » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:14 pm

Boy howdy...as far as I am concerned, take every model with a grain of salt right now. Hell, we don't even have an LLC yet!

Today every model has shifted westward, some dramatically. As long as this one stays weak, the trend will continue even more westward. I'm pretty confident this will happen. I wouldn't rule out Texas or Lousiana just yet. Get the camera ready ED!!!! LOL!!!
Last edited by Johnny on Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1523 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote::uarrow:

Central Gulf coast


Huh? check again FL peninsula still


No, central to western Florida panhandle
Bamms (far left) are the new ones that just came out..

Image
Last edited by Ivanhater on Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1524 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:14 pm

yes we do have an LLC its FAY officially. :uarrow:
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Re:

#1525 Postby GreenSky » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:16 pm

rockyman wrote:Image


WOOW! Forecasted to go through the spine of DR...when will Fay die?

I hope she dies soon too...I don't want her to move too far into the GOM...much less threaten LA/TX! :grrr:
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#1526 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:16 pm

Ivanhater Central Gulf Coast is more west than those models are showing..
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Re:

#1527 Postby sfwx » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:17 pm

rockyman wrote:Image



I don't see how it can strengthen much if it travels over so much land.......

Eric
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Re:

#1528 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:Ivanhater Central Gulf Coast is more west than those models are showing..



Yeah, technically more east central :P but the move continues
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#1529 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:18 pm

WOW, shifted to the Gulf!!!
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#1530 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:18 pm

Current Model Consensus (gray line) shows a landfall on the west coast of FL sometime between Monday Evening and Tuesday afternoon...

Image

Hopefully this is a weak system at the time so that my flight out of Orlando on Tuesday will still be able to take off.
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#1531 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:21 pm

Extreme, that is very close to Tampa Bay :eek: Please models shift
away I don't need a tropical system.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1532 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:21 pm

I would wait for the next reliable model runs with the center fixed before determining where this might end up. Even then with the center over or very near land how accurate will the be?
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#1533 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:22 pm

its going to be an interesting NHC 5pm EST advisory with all of these whacky model shifts.....expect a decent size cone spanning the Eastern GOM all the way to the Bahamas...
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Re: Re:

#1534 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:22 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Ivanhater Central Gulf Coast is more west than those models are showing..



Yeah, technically more east central :P but the move continues


Technically extreme eastern Gulf. Central is not part of the equation....yet.
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Re:

#1535 Postby Sabanic » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:23 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Current Model Consensus (gray line) shows a landfall on the west coast of FL sometime between Monday Evening and Tuesday afternoon...

Image

Hopefully this is a weak system at the time so that my flight out of Orlando on Tuesday will still be able to take off.


Bank on more model shifts. We have a long ways to go with Fay
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#1536 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:27 pm

If fay enters the pennisula, we dont have much time at all...72 hours at most.
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#1537 Postby Trader Ron » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:28 pm

I'm watching the GFDL, GFS, Euro, and HWRF.
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#1538 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:30 pm

Consensus Model has a landfall near Sarasota, FL in 4 days.
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#1539 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:33 pm

>>Oh lawd

Luckily a SE to NW approach like NOGAPS has almost never verifies. That's really rare without a building ridge nosing it along when it's almost at the western point/nose of an eliptical or oblong-shaped ridge. That's a once or twice a century solution for us, so I'm not worried. Not yet anyway. The other good thing is that it doesn't really turn it into that big of a storm, so if it was to verify, we'd be looking at something probably in the Cat 1 range (acknowledging the resolution is quite low).

Steve
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#1540 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:36 pm

NHC not biting on west trend of models yet...right up the heart of peninsula FL:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0#contents
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