Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[jeff]

18Z tropicals shift on off to the west. More clustering now for the GOM. Not sure the turn in the E GOM will in fact happen. Still may move across DR or just south...which may inhibit development...ie more west...west...west...west the models will trend. Once it gets its act together and where then a poleward bend may begin as long as SW ATL ridging does not build in too strong...if not off to the W or WNW.

[GreenSky]

18Z tropicals shift on off to the west. More clustering now for the GOM. Not sure the turn in the E GOM will in fact happen. Still may move across DR or just south...which may inhibit development...ie more west...west...west...west the models will trend. Once it gets its act together and where then a poleward bend may begin as long as SW ATL ridging does not build in too strong...if not off to the W or WNW.

Does 92L have a better shot at Texas or Florida with all these west shifts?

[gatorcane]

Folks its ONE model run where all shifted left abruptly, by no means should we be basing forecast on this one run....lets see if its a trend and then we can draw some conclusions.

Remember yesterday at this time most were fairly right of the East Coast of Florida!

[Steve]

The EURO portends well for drought stricken areas of SC, NC and GA if it were to verify.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

FYI

Steve

[oyster_reef]

Folks its ONE model run where all shifted left abruptly, by no means should we be basing forecast on this one run....lets see if its a trend and then we can draw some conclusions.

Remember yesterday at this time most were fairly right of the East Coast of Florida!

models have been "trending" west for 3 days now Gator. We are looking for the trend to stop or reverse. Don't get stuck on the one model run this morning that showed your area.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Sound advice. With this wave being just that, a wave, and no closed low level circulation, the models will flip flop. Let's see what happens when and if this thing develops. I say "if" because there are a lot of mountains in Hispanola and Cuba. And it looks like the models are taking this wave straight through a lot of them.

Folks its ONE model run where all shifted left abruptly, by no means should we be basing forecast on this one run....lets see if its a trend and then we can draw some conclusions.

Remember yesterday at this time most were fairly right of the East Coast of Florida!

[rockyman]

12z NOGAPS--New Orleans

[Extremeweatherguy]

Folks its ONE model run where all shifted left abruptly, by no means should we be basing forecast on this one run....lets see if its a trend and then we can draw some conclusions.

Remember yesterday at this time most were fairly right of the East Coast of Florida!

models have been "trending" west for 3 days now Gator. We are looking for the trend to stop or reverse. Don't get stuck on the one model run this morning that showed your area.

Not true. The models actually trended east for a period yesterday afternoon and evening.

[Ivanhater]

Oh lawd

[Ivanhater]

Folks its ONE model run where all shifted left abruptly, by no means should we be basing forecast on this one run....lets see if its a trend and then we can draw some conclusions.

Remember yesterday at this time most were fairly right of the East Coast of Florida!

models have been "trending" west for 3 days now Gator. We are looking for the trend to stop or reverse. Don't get stuck on the one model run this morning that showed your area.

Not true. The models actually trended east for a period yesterday afternoon and evening.

All true Extreme but that is because they had it developing sooner, the longer it takes the further west the turn..just a wait and see

[Dean4Storms]

Folks its ONE model run where all shifted left abruptly, by no means should we be basing forecast on this one run....lets see if its a trend and then we can draw some conclusions.

Remember yesterday at this time most were fairly right of the East Coast of Florida!

Gator, it is not just the model runs but the fact that 92L is not skirting to the north of the islands with a closed LLC, it would take as the models also showed a very deep system come eastern Cuba for the it to turn into the weakness provided by the trough.

[N2Storms]

[quote="gatorcane"]Folks its ONE model run where all shifted left abruptly, by no means should we be basing forecast on this one run....lets see if its a trend and then we can draw some conclusions.

Remember yesterday at this time most were fairly right of the East Coast of Florida![/quote]



I approve this message. I think as so many have already said, it's best just to watch this for now...IMO no definitive forecasts can be made at this point. There are some fantastic, Pro Mets on here and I will always defer to them, this is what they do for a living...I personally hope this thing dies a slow death in the DR or Haiti and causes no death or destruction...at any rate, I think everyone from the Carolinas to the west coast of FL should just continue to monitor 92L

[OuterBanker]

Don't mind at all if this trend holds. No direct hit and great rains in drought stricken areas. No offense W coast and panhandle of Fl. Better you than me. What a monster for such a disorganized storm. With any luck it won't be bad and help drought areas.

[Dean4Storms]

Don't mind at all if this trend holds. No direct hit and great rains in drought stricken areas. No offense W coast and panhandle of Fl. Better you than me. What a monster for such a disorganized storm. With any luck it won't be bad and help drought areas.

Needless to say we/I don't need this thing here in the Panhandle as we are still trying to recover from Ivan and Dennis. I'm hoping this thing gets shredded over the DR and never gets its act together over the central Carib. near Jamaica as the models seem to be indicating, but I am getting a bad feeling about this one with the synoptics coming together, the untapped waters of the Eastern GOM and a ridge nosing in over peninsula Florida next week. It don't look good at this point for the home team.

[tolakram]

I still think you all are missing the point. The models aren't really trending they are just moving the turn based upon where the storm becomes a storm. Hell if this thing never develops it will probably end up in northern Mexico.

How accurate are models when they are run on open waves?

[Ivanhater]

I still think you all are missing the point. The models aren't really trending they are just moving the turn based upon where the storm becomes a storm. Hell if this thing never develops it will probably end up in northern Mexico.

How accurate are models when they are run on open waves?

Ive been saying that

[Cainer]

The latest GFDL reminds me a bit of Dennis' track. Not as strong, fortunately. Anyway, I'd much prefer the HWRF solution - Ernesto style, straight over Florida as a weak TS.

[cycloneye]

293
WHXX01 KWBC 152000
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2000 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080815 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080815 1800 080816 0600 080816 1800 080817 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 68.6W 19.1N 71.6W 20.1N 74.4W 20.7N 76.9W
BAMD 18.5N 68.6W 19.0N 71.3W 19.6N 73.7W 20.3N 75.9W
BAMM 18.5N 68.6W 18.9N 71.5W 19.5N 74.3W 20.3N 76.7W
LBAR 18.5N 68.6W 18.7N 71.2W 19.1N 73.8W 19.6N 76.4W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 56KTS
DSHP 35KTS 31KTS 36KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080817 1800 080818 1800 080819 1800 080820 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.5N 79.5W 23.3N 82.7W 25.8N 84.2W 28.0N 85.3W
BAMD 21.3N 77.7W 24.6N 80.7W 28.6N 81.7W 31.6N 81.9W
BAMM 21.2N 78.9W 23.6N 82.2W 26.6N 83.7W 28.8N 84.6W
LBAR 20.3N 78.8W 22.9N 82.3W 26.8N 84.3W 30.7N 84.9W
SHIP 64KTS 73KTS 84KTS 82KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 48KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 68.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 66.0W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 63.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

$$

[Ivanhater]

Central Gulf coast

Edit, East central

[rockyman]