Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[CalmBeforeStorm]

12z GFDL shifts west to GOM:

WHXX04 KWBC 151726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.0 67.5 275./13.0
6 18.1 69.1 275./15.9
12 17.3 70.4 237./14.7
18 17.4 73.0 272./24.5
24 18.0 74.3 292./13.1
30 18.4 75.5 290./12.6
36 18.7 76.9 281./13.9
42 18.9 78.0 283./10.0
48 19.2 79.2 284./12.2
54 19.8 80.2 299./10.3
60 19.9 81.1 279./ 9.2
66 20.4 81.6 319./ 6.7
72 21.5 82.2 329./11.9
78 22.2 82.9 315./10.1
84 23.0 83.6 320./ 9.9
90 23.7 84.1 323./ 8.3
96 24.7 84.5 342./10.3
102 25.6 84.8 341./ 9.9
108 26.5 84.8 356./ 8.5
114 27.3 85.1 347./ 9.0
120 28.2 85.2 354./ 8.9
126 29.1 85.0 9./ 8.5


Major shift to GOM.

It takes it due west for along time under the islands which is what I think it's doing right now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFDL shifts west to GOM:

WHXX04 KWBC 151726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.0 67.5 275./13.0
6 18.1 69.1 275./15.9
12 17.3 70.4 237./14.7
18 17.4 73.0 272./24.5
24 18.0 74.3 292./13.1
30 18.4 75.5 290./12.6
36 18.7 76.9 281./13.9
42 18.9 78.0 283./10.0
48 19.2 79.2 284./12.2
54 19.8 80.2 299./10.3
60 19.9 81.1 279./ 9.2
66 20.4 81.6 319./ 6.7
72 21.5 82.2 329./11.9
78 22.2 82.9 315./10.1
84 23.0 83.6 320./ 9.9
90 23.7 84.1 323./ 8.3
96 24.7 84.5 342./10.3
102 25.6 84.8 341./ 9.9
108 26.5 84.8 356./ 8.5
114 27.3 85.1 347./ 9.0
120 28.2 85.2 354./ 8.9
126 29.1 85.0 9./ 8.5


Major shift to GOM.

It takes it due west for along time under the islands which is what I think it's doing right now.

Yea but look at the track in color? Possible?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

[vacanechaser]

12z GFDL shifts west to GOM:

WHXX04 KWBC 151726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.0 67.5 275./13.0
6 18.1 69.1 275./15.9
12 17.3 70.4 237./14.7
18 17.4 73.0 272./24.5
24 18.0 74.3 292./13.1
30 18.4 75.5 290./12.6
36 18.7 76.9 281./13.9
42 18.9 78.0 283./10.0
48 19.2 79.2 284./12.2
54 19.8 80.2 299./10.3
60 19.9 81.1 279./ 9.2
66 20.4 81.6 319./ 6.7
72 21.5 82.2 329./11.9
78 22.2 82.9 315./10.1
84 23.0 83.6 320./ 9.9
90 23.7 84.1 323./ 8.3
96 24.7 84.5 342./10.3
102 25.6 84.8 341./ 9.9
108 26.5 84.8 356./ 8.5
114 27.3 85.1 347./ 9.0
120 28.2 85.2 354./ 8.9
126 29.1 85.0 9./ 8.5


Major shift to GOM.

It takes it due west for along time under the islands which is what I think it's doing right now.

well, lets remember it runs off the gfs.... i dont see a west movement.. looks like wnw to me...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET:Also to GOM.


TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

18.1N 67.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 15.08.2008 18.1N 67.5W WEAK

00UTC 16.08.2008 18.7N 71.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.08.2008 19.2N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.08.2008 19.4N 75.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.08.2008 19.6N 77.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2008 20.7N 79.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.08.2008 22.1N 81.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.08.2008 23.3N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.08.2008 24.9N 83.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.08.2008 25.8N 84.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.08.2008 27.4N 85.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.08.2008 28.2N 86.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2008 29.1N 86.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFDL track looks suspicious. It bends the storm south completely around the DR/Haiti, then moves it close to Jamaica and then finally lifts it northward toward the west coast of Cuba. This scenario seems way too far south, IMO.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The GFDL track looks suspicious. It bends the storm south completely around the DR/Haiti, then moves it close to Jamaica and then finally lifts it northward toward the west coast of Cuba. This scenario seems way too far south, IMO.

Agree...Seems like a bad run there

[Derek Ortt]

its likely tracker issues due to the terrain

[CalmBeforeStorm]

[

Agree...Seems like a bad run there[/quote]

Becasuse you don't like the solution?

[gatorcane]

That run is just not good for peninsula FL except maybe the fact 92L would be over land enough to keep it from cranking up (hopefully)

[tolakram]

I'm tempted to say something about the GFDL. If I wasn't refusing to comment on center relocation I might say that because there is no well defined LLC it's possible that of the MLC moves south of Hispaniola a LLC might just form there. Not that I have any scientific evidence to back up that statement, which is why I would not say it.

Looks to me like the GFDL is -removed-.

[Steve]

For anyone interested in the CMC (which does actually have some pretty good track record with higher latitude weather), here's the 12z run (can't see that small but I'm pretty sure), putting the system up in the Big Bend of FL. It's got the upper air charts along with the surface stuff, and you see how it ends up east of St. Georges Island/Tallahassee.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

Steve

[Stormcenter]

The GFDL track looks suspicious. It bends the storm south completely around the DR/Haiti, then moves it close to Jamaica and then finally lifts it northward toward the west coast of Cuba. This scenario seems way too far south, IMO.

Agree...Seems like a bad run there

When you look at the model tracks for 92L it looks like they are all drunk.

[vacanechaser]

[

Agree...Seems like a bad run there

Becasuse you don't like the solution?[/quote]

because looking at the graphic, looks like the intial postion is to far south




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[AtlanticWind]

I think the dip to the south is not going to happen, but the shift west is not suprising as that seems to be the trend.

[txwatcher91]

I don't disagree with any of that. My entire early call from Tuesday AM (or Monday night) was a threat in your neck of the woods. An alliance of the Euro, GFS, GFDL and HRWF is one I'd put the house on vs. the NOGAPS (which does have its good years) and CMC. So I'm not arguing that. I'm neutral anyway because I think it's a SE US threat (which is in line with what you are thinking). I totally understand your point and your reasoning behind your point. I even agree with you. But in light of your posts in this thread - which -removed- or not all did accept an East Coast up to a NC solution - you can't call out others for doing the same thing. Again, I agree with you. I think you are a good poster and read what you put out there. I even agree with you in this instance. I just hate state-based forecasts. And if everyone else is doing it (and many posters do), you have to watch out. Anyone on here will tell you I specifically disacknowledge any threats to SE or SC Louisiana until it's beyond obvious simply so I can maintain my credibility and neutrality. I don't expect everyone to emulate that. That's just me.

Steve

I will admit I said a East Coast solution possibly to NC was possible, but I think I said Florida was likely to get the first landfall with second landfall further north possible. I accepted a NC landfall since the Euro showed it, and has been showing it for days and is the most accurate model 90% of the time. However, the GFDL has now shifted into the GOM so it is hard to say what will happen. The most important thing is for recon to find an LLC, and for this to clear Cuba and DR, which may or may not happen. I am looking forward to seeing if the euro has shifted west or not will find out in an hour or so. I guess it is just human nature to want a storm to head your way, especially considering we are in a drought and I really want a tropical system for some badly needed rain.

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Hrwf shows storm torn apart than regroups a little

[DESTRUCTION5]

[

Agree...Seems like a bad run there

Becasuse you don't like the solution?[/quote]


Lets not go there...

Reason is it is not Initiated right 1st of all , Then It goes SW Around land like its on a Carnival cruise...

[Steve]

>>The most important thing is for recon to find an LLC, and for this to clear Cuba and DR, which may or may not happen. I am looking forward to seeing if the euro has shifted west or not will find out in an hour or so. I guess it is just human nature to want a storm to head your way, especially considering we are in a drought and I really want a tropical system for some badly needed rain.

It's all good. I hope the drought busts up that way too. Had some friend in North Alabama that dealt with it before it migrated a little further east. I don't want that to come via a major though or even a storm that ends up sitting over the same area flooding it out to the point of turning the drought on its head. Not sure which 12z run did it, but there is one that sits the remnants over southern Georgia and that's often a recipe for loss of life. Most of the drought (started in NC LA/Southern Arkansas a few years ago) has lasted only 2+/- years, so you guys should get your turn soon enough. And we know that one way out of drought is tropical weather, just hopefully a little of it rather than a lot.

I'm also looking forward to the 12z ECMWF. I don't have a problem with a SFL/Keys solution on further eastward, but I just don't see the farther west solutions - 86? 87? I don't get it. Admittedly I'm hanging onto the WPAC teleconnection (again, admittedly weak this time) with two weak storms both recurving to tell me that there will be an edge of that ridge in a week or so. And that's very tenuous, but ultimately I don't think it's going to fail unless something completely unpredictable happens (e.g. 92L continues due west for a while in response to whatever; storm splits; another low forms in the vicinity, etc.). I just see what you're saying - possibly a SFL then points farther northward solution - as the one that makes the most sense in light of what actually is going on out there.

Gonna be a real interesting weekend for all you guys in the threat region (which I'd put about Apalachacola to Kill Devils Hill/Duck).

/post isn't official, posters opinion only

Steve

[Rainband]

12 Z GFS takes it right up the West Coast Of Florida.

a couple of days ago one of the models showed that. It's not allowed.

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFDL track looks suspicious. It bends the storm south completely around the DR/Haiti, then moves it close to Jamaica and then finally lifts it northward toward the west coast of Cuba. This scenario seems way too far south, IMO.

At this point in time I'm ready to throw all of the models out of the window...I think this is the first time that I have ever seen a "normal" outlier model (CLP) running right down the middle of the guidance. With that in mind I think that most everything we are currently looking out is bunk...IMHO