Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Dean4Storms]

I don't buy one model run that swings this far. However somewhere between Jamaica and South Florida 92L doeth head.

[MWatkins]

I wouldn't be too quick to write off the GFS just yet. The 850MB initialization looks good...and it does match the due west movement we have been seeing since yesterday.

Let's see what the other globals have in store for us...

MW

[NEXRAD]

Since the 12Z GFS eventually turns the system north - just like the previous 06Z and 00Z - the Caribbean location seems to be a simple artifact of where the system was initialized. Frankly, the disorganization present with 92L at present makes nit-picking over whether the GFS initialization point is good or not good seems a little silly to me. If a center does wind-up south of the Dominican Republic, rather than north, then the current GFS will be of greater interest. It's worth waiting for the 18Z to make any greater judgements.

- Jay

[rockyman]

90 hours--moving NNW offshore SW Florida

[vacanechaser]

Exactly the 12z GFS has the position nearly spot on at 6hrs then moves it from there. Not a bad run at all given the location it forecastsd the center to be at around 18z.

nope, at 6 hours it is still south of where the nhc has said the low is right now.... it can not start out in a wrong position and then make it up and go from there and expect it to be correct... the model just says, oppps, wrong starting position, i will put here in 6 hours and go from there.. no way.. i just dont see that happening... wrong position.. bad data..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[stormy1970al]

I am not worrying until the thing gets into the Gulf and that is if it gets in the Gulf. I think the best thing to do is listen to the pro mets on here.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS slams Key West with 92L

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Exactly the 12z GFS has the position nearly spot on at 6hrs then moves it from there. Not a bad run at all given the location it forecastsd the center to be at around 18z.

nope, at 6 hours it is still south of where the nhc has said the low is right now.... it can not start out in a wrong position and then make it up and go from there and expect it to be correct... the model just says, oppps, wrong starting position, i will put here in 6 hours and go from there.. no way.. i just dont see that happening... wrong position.. bad data..

~~~~~~~~


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

South by just a little bit. Not enough to totally skew the solution.

[rockyman]

108 hours--close to landfall near Tampa

[Stormcenter]

I am not worrying until the thing gets into the Gulf and that is if it gets in the Gulf. I think the best thing to do is listen to the pro mets on here.

A very good post.

[NEXRAD]

... Using a single model run, especially when the run windshield-wipers, is like forecasting a storm using tea-leaves.

Jay

[KWT]

Also note it only shows a broad low at 00hrs, the model simply relocates the center to a much more reasonable solution at 6hrs because that area is more favorable, just as the real life obs are showing...

[Stormcenter]

108 hours--close to landfall near Tampa

Oh no...the media will eat this.

[NEXRAD]

The 15Z RUC/2 gradually develops a broad circulation a little south of the Dominican Republic over the next few hours, brings the circulation across Hispaniola, and eventually concentrates it just north of the Dominican Republic this afternoon.

While the RUC/2 isn't traditionally a "tropical weather" model, I've always found it useful for handling systems when they are convectively driven, as can be the case with developing systems.

- Jay

[rockyman]

114 hours...still offshore Tampa...possibly missing it to the north

[rockyman]

120 hours...moving onshore north of Cedar Key (SE of Tallahassee)

[Trader Ron]

12 Z GFS takes it right up the West Coast Of Florida.

[stormchazer]

No thank you. We in the Tampa area pass. Pluss we have Macdill AFB to seed the storm and protect us .

[ronjon]

Will be an intersting afternoon discussion at NWS Tampa today - wait till the FL media show this run - probably be runs at the gas stations soon. Like everyone else here - it's a single model run. Now let's wait for the rest of the globals at 12Z. It's interesting if the rest of the globals start going along - we'll have to give the CMC kudos if that happens - when was the last time that happened?

[robbielyn]

The 15Z RUC/2 gradually develops a broad circulation a little south of the Dominican Republic over the next few hours, brings the circulation across Hispaniola, and eventually concentrates it just north of the Dominican Republic this afternoon.

While the RUC/2 isn't traditionally a "tropical weather" model, I've always found it useful for handling systems when they are convectively driven, as can be the case with developing systems.

- Jay

And you have been successful with it in the past like with charley. Haven't seen the RUC/2 in a long time.