Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[rockyman]

Major west shift starting in GFS--shows system moving SOUTH of the east tip of Cuba

[rockyman]

GFS 12z--36 hours...over JAMAICA

[vacanechaser]

Each hour going by, the GOM threat is increasing..it's going to take longer to get together...I am 90 percent sure the models will shift to the GOM in the next couple days



Already making that shift west, now most over South Florida..watch for it to continue, I wouldnt be surprised to see most fo the models showing SW Florida tonight

i am not so sure... the models for the past day or so have been showing the development taking place about this time... right about where it is now... it is almost right on time imo... will have to wait and see but i think the models were picking up on it developing near this area and close to this time frame..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Reserach Team

[rockyman]

12z GFS 36 hours (over Jamaica):

[ronjon]

Just too any variables at this point to pick one model solution over another - sure we have the best dynamical models, GFDL, HWRF, plus the Euro showing up the east coast but they also really ramp up 92L to a CAT 3 or 4 storm (more poleward bound) - may happen, but with 92L riding through the greater antilles, doesn't seem to add up now. We have CMC through the eastern GOM and HWRF through the eastern Bahamas. Thats how wide the "model uncertainty" is on the track now.

[rockyman]

Keep in mind that the GFS initialized SW of PR instead of in the Mona Passage...so the results could be skewed toward the SW

[KWT]

WOW what a turnaround, maybe the useless CMC for once is correct

[txwatcher91]

GFS initialized too far south, so discount this run. Unless the center is that far south, which the NHC doesn't agree with, then I think it will be about 75 miles north of the GFS track and more easterly as a result.

[txwatcher91]

Also of note, most models don't develop this until late Saturday or Sunday, so don't expect much until then.

[rockyman]

12z GFS in 48 hours...WNW toward the Caymans

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Also of note, most models don't develop this until late Saturday or Sunday, so don't expect much until then.

But at 6 hours the position is right where this is now.

[KWT]

The 6hr forecast is too far south but not by a huge deal really:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

The big thing is it keeps it due west and over Hispaniola as well for longer.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Totally agree with you on this on Jesse. This is about the time this wave is supposed to get cooking. If you look at the latest visable, it sure has that classic look to it. The next 12-24 hours should be very interesting indeed.

i am not so sure... the models for the past day or so have been showing the development taking place about this time... right about where it is now... it is almost right on time imo... will have to wait and see but i think the models were picking up on it developing near this area and close to this time frame..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Reserach Team

[rockyman]

60 hours...turning more poleward toward the south central Cuban coast (ridging disappears north of the system)

[Stormcenter]

GFS initialized too far south, so discount this run. Unless the center is that far south, which the NHC doesn't agree with, then I think it will be about 75 miles north of the GFS track and more easterly as a result.

Exactly.

[vacanechaser]

Keep in mind that the GFS initialized SW of PR instead of in the Mona Passage...so the results could be skewed toward the SW

correct... bad data in, bad data out... so throw the gfs 12z run under the bus... trash




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[txwatcher91]

GFS initialized too far south, so discount this run. Unless the center is that far south, which the NHC doesn't agree with, then I think it will be about 75 miles north of the GFS track and more easterly as a result.

Exactly.

Some on here are grabbing at every straw for a GOM threat, which I just don't see considering the models show a HP building over Texas and east of Bermuda with a weakness over Florida and NC. GFS actually initialized about 125 miles too far south.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Keep in mind that the GFS initialized SW of PR instead of in the Mona Passage...so the results could be skewed toward the SW

correct... bad data in, bad data out... so throw the gfs 12z run under the bus... trash





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I disagree. It initializes a broad area of low pressure and then gets the position correct at 6z.

[KWT]

Exactly the 12z GFS has the position nearly spot on at 6hrs then moves it from there. Not a bad run at all given the location it forecastsd the center to be at around 18z.

[rockyman]

78 hours...between Havana and Key West MOVING NW WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN