Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

As does the HWRF..South Carolina

[GreenSky]

GFDL starts pushing west into South Carolina..

Huh? What do you mean by "west"?

Do you mean that the new 0Z GFDL is west of the previous 18Z GFDL?

[Ivanhater]

GFDL starts pushing west into South Carolina..

Huh? What do you mean by "west"?

Do you mean that the new 0Z GFDL is west of the previous 18Z GFDL?

Yes, and HWRF

[GreenSky]

GFDL starts pushing west into South Carolina..

Huh? What do you mean by "west"?

Do you mean that the new 0Z GFDL is west of the previous 18Z GFDL?

Yes, and HWRF

Wow...what a surprise. I thought the new GFDL would be GFS fed and indicate a similar track to the GFS?!

Conversely, 92L is moving sooooo quickly right now, that it may not be pushed back westward by the developing ridge until it is offshore of the Carolinas. Correct me if I am wrong

[physicx07]

Hey, remember the snow last April???

Ed make sure you were a shirt.

Not gonna happen. Hudson Bay still has ice, September cold fronts are reaching Texas in August, I'll be getting excited about GFS 324 hour snow/frz rain predictions for SE Texas by early November, if I had to guess.

[Ivanhater]

Wow...what a surprise. I thought the new GFDL would be GFS fed and indicate a similar track to the GFS?!

Conversely, 92L is moving sooooo quickly right now, that it may not be pushed back westward by the developing ridge until it is offshore of the Carolinas. Correct me if I am wrong

I think your guess is as good as anyones..highly complicated setup..

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z UKMET finally kickin in on this one.

[SouthFloridawx]

Nogaps 00Z

Loop:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&prod=prp&dtg=2008081500

[GreenSky]

I don't usually take NOGAPS that seriously...it seems to have plenty of "gaps" if you know what I mean

When does EURO come out?

[Meso]

00z HWRF


00z GFDL



00z EURO will be out within 30 minutes

[Brent]

I don't usually take NOGAPS that seriously...it seems to have plenty of "gaps" if you know what I mean

When does EURO come out?

I don't have a link yet but the Euro looks a lot like the GFDL(maybe more to the west), very very close to most of FL and then headed for the Carolinas.

[Rainband]

It's anyone's guess at this point. There is NO Center. That's why the models are ALL over the place. Time will tell whats going on. Just everyone be ready. Just like you should have been since June 1rst.

[Meso]

Here's the latest EURO (00z).. Fresh out the oven

[Wx_Warrior]

Just getting into the thick of things...WOW...GFS needs to put the smoke down...That last run was one for the books!

[Meso]

The BAMD was the model which had it going out to sea. Latest models are showing the ridge building back stronger than the previous runs

[jlauderdal]

The BAMD was the model which had it going out to sea. Latest models are showing the ridge building back stronger than the previous runs

forget the bams, the global models UKmet, gfs, etc are your best bet for now..until there s a true center of circulation the models will be all over the place

[Meso]

Yeah, but the fact that they are showing the ridge building back (I'm assuming that's what is suddenly pushing them west) is interesting, since the location of the centre won't change the fact that they are showing it building back.Yes it could have to do with timing and when it will reach that area but in general it seems to be showing a stronger ridge than previous runs (This seems to be the case looking at the 12z GFS from yesterday and the 00z from today)

[KWT]

We really do have some uncertain models here, the GFS and the UKMO are keen to block the weakness and shunt 92L back westwards towards Florida, whilst the GFDL and the ECM eventually bring it towards the Carolinas...hmmm its a really tough call to make!

Either way GFDL still calling for a pretty powerful hurricane...

[Emmett_Brown]

The models are still in general agreement for a track north of the islands, (since they were initialized NE of PR) which in my opinion is highly uncertain at this time. The southern portion of the wave might develop, spinning up the LLC in the N Caribean which would mean that these models are probably wrong. A lot could change soon depending on where the center acutally ends up... could ride the southern edge of Hispaniola and Cuba.

[HURAKAN]

395
WHXX04 KWBC 150528
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.1 64.6 280./13.0
6 18.2 65.6 281./ 9.2
12 18.6 66.5 291./ 9.6
18 19.1 67.8 291./12.8
24 19.5 69.0 287./12.3
30 19.5 70.2 271./11.0
36 19.8 71.5 283./12.8
42 20.0 72.7 280./11.8
48 20.2 73.7 276./ 9.6
54 20.5 74.8 289./10.1
60 20.9 75.4 301./ 7.1
66 21.5 75.7 335./ 7.1
72 22.5 75.9 346./ 9.9
78 23.4 76.4 333./ 9.4
84 24.3 76.6 346./10.0
90 25.2 76.8 346./ 8.6
96 26.1 76.8 1./ 9.5
102 27.0 77.2 339./ 9.2
108 28.0 77.4 346./ 9.7
114 28.9 77.8 337./10.0
120 29.6 78.2 333./ 8.1
126 30.3 78.6 328./ 8.1