ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aric Dunn]

its not going to trick me again.. those are not real bands forming around it again on the NW side http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rgb.html

or maybe it will trick me... like the boy who cried wolf except 92l has been crying all day ;(

[Just Joshing You]

What time is 0830 UTC?

[HURAKAN]

What time is 0800 UTC?

4 AM EDT

[BensonTCwatcher]

I just want everyone to know that the MLC from earlier is now underneath the ball of convection a helping to fire more convection.. yah.. what does that mean .. well more disorganized mess ....

mlc 18.4n 63.7w

looks like we are finally getting ascent, and lining up vertically. Just slow to get it's act together

[Ed Mahmoud]

I still think the emerging center is very close to St Croix, just West of the deepest convection.



But I wouldn't bet money on it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

Dont see how this is going to avoid major land interaction with hispaniola

I agree, I think it's journey is about to come to an end. It's really beautiful on satellite, but the surface conditions just aren't there. it would take a long jog to the NW for this system to survive. Funeral services for 92L will begin tomorrow.

[jaxfladude]

I am glad that my bet that this will not go poof seems to be called.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

17.9ºN and 64.6ºW, in my very amateur opinion. Darned close to St Croix.


Maybe.


But I have been wrong before...

[Weatherfreak14]

Jim Cantore Said that all these models are wrong on a WNW track he says this will go WSW into the carribean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

Dont see how this is going to avoid major land interaction with hispaniola

I agree, I think it's journey is about to come to an end. It's really beautiful on satellite, but the surface conditions just aren't there. it would take a long jog to the NW for this system to survive. Funeral services for 92L will begin tomorrow.

What if Fay to Be tracks just South of Hispaniola, and does its Northward turn across Cuba?




Not saying it would happen, just saying it isn't impossible.

[Steve]

>>If what you guys are saying is true, then chances for development may go below 20%.

>>I agree, I think it's journey is about to come to an end. It's really beautiful on satellite, but the surface conditions just aren't there. it would take a long jog to the NW for this system to survive. Funeral services for 92L will begin tomorrow.

I'm going to have to go ahead and assume you won't be laying any money on either of those ideas, because if you are, I'll spot whatever odds you think are fair.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

at this rate ex 93l will be fay first

[cheezyWXguy]

Jim Cantore Said that all these models are wrong on a WNW track he says this will go WSW into the carribean.

hhhhhhmmmmmmmmm........

Ugh hes following the mlc. Dont make his mistake. this is moving at like 280 right now. the mlc just went south to meet the llc. wnw motion should return soon. This may catch the NE side of PR, but I DO NOT see this going over DR.

why dont people listen to me? Ive said this about the mlc like 10 freaking times.

[HURAKAN]

at this rate ex 93l will be fay first

Please, lets bring constructive material to the table.

[storms in NC]

I don't believe that it is not Fay yet. I went out of town for 6 hours just knowing that it would be. Oh well. Any one would like to get me up to date with out reading 25 pages.

[Weatherfreak14]

Jim Cantore Said that all these models are wrong on a WNW track he says this will go WSW into the carribean.

hhhhhhmmmmmmmmm........

Ugh hes following the mlc. Dont make his mistake. this is moving at like 280 right now. the mlc just went south to meet the llc. wnw motion should return soon. This may catch the NE side of PR, but I DO NOT see this going over DR.

why dont people listen to me? Ive said this about the mlc like 10 freaking times.

I hear yea, ive gotten a little confused myself, the latest frame from the IR looks like Convection is trying to pop more to the NW now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Jim Cantore Said that all these models are wrong on a WNW track he says this will go WSW into the carribean.

hhhhhhmmmmmmmmm........

Ugh hes following the mlc. Dont make his mistake. this is moving at like 280 right now. the mlc just went south to meet the llc. wnw motion should return soon. This may catch the NE side of PR, but I DO NOT see this going over DR.

why dont people listen to me? Ive said this about the mlc like 10 freaking times.

I agree...Radar makes it look to be close to st.croix. But anyways who knows when this reaches the surface; just got to watch it closely.

[cheezyWXguy]

Technically, it is at the surface now, but its a weak eddy now. but at current trends with bursting convection, and the dmax coming around soon (which has helped the storm a great deal in the last 2 nights) convergence should allow for the llc to strengthen over night. Therefore, I resort back to my original prediction of upgrading either tomorrow at 11 or 5.