ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Just Joshing You]

What do you pro-mets think will happen at 11 pm advisory?

[CajunMama]

PLEASE!!! Do NOT post live loops of our radar. Many of us (in the islands) can't get it to load - I've had 2 captains tell me that already today!!

Post the link, or a snapshot on imageshack.

I'm bumping this up as a reminder. Also, before posting click preview and if you see a pic that is similar to yours being posted with no new relevent info please don't post it. Let's be considerate of others. Links are great

Bumping this up again to help our island friends.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like it is moving almost due west to me.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFDL 500 mb heights on AccuWx PPV web site shows ridge filling back in last day out to 126 hours, and trough in mid section tilting neutral to maybe even a tad negative tilted.


A track North offshore Florida may not, per 18Z GFDL, mean no US mainland landfall.

IMHO. I am an amateur, but I like to think my deep understanding (well, I forgot a lot) of multiphase fluid flow in porous media and petrophysics, that came with my BS in petroleum engineering makes me, while equally uneducated in met as any other amateur, maybe a little more in tune with natural processes. I never learned how to solve mass balances and the diffusivity equation, exactly, but learned to run programs that could approximate the answers, and produce cool graphics with streamlines that almost look like a weather map. That, and I have read a lot of book on hurricanes, and winter storms, my two favorite things after Hurricane Belle and the two 1978 snowstorms in Massapequa, NY, where I lived until my now deceased Dad got transferred back to DFW by American Airlines. He used to work with Harold Taft, back in the 1950s, and, IMHO, no TV met, to this day, is as good in the semi-major DFW TV market. I will say, KXAS TV-5, Taft's old station before his unfortunate passing, alone among DFW TV stations, hires only degreed mets exclusively.


Double checking satellite, as I did spend a couple of hours as an eight year old in San Juan connecting to Orangstad "non-revving" with my parents, the strongest winds may just miss Puerto Rico to the North, but I see an end to the drought people have been talking about, and then some. Possibly major flooding.

[wxman57]

00Z models initialized the center right over BVI, 100 miles west of MLC. BVI reporting calm wind. Must be in the eye?

Wxman57 can you give us a brief summary why:
1. The 00z Bamm models made a big shift E?
2. Is the ridge not expected to be as strong?
3. Did the models initialize the wrong area?

Yes, BAMs are worthless out of the deep tropics. But I do see a general shift east in all models as of 00Z. They're turning the storm northward into the central to eastern Bahamas. Steering currents are very light across the Bahamas and south Florida this weekend. I expect more moving around east and west with the models over the next few days. I should have removed LBAR from the image below (purple track near FL).

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

00Z models initialized the center right over BVI, 100 miles west of MLC. BVI reporting calm wind. Must be in the eye?

Wxman57 can you give us a brief summary why:
1. The 00z Bamm models made a big shift E?
2. Is the ridge not expected to be as strong?
3. Did the models initialize the wrong area?

Yes, BAMs are worthless out of the deep tropics. But I do see a general shift east in all models as of 00Z. They're turning the storm northward into the central to eastern Bahamas. Steering currents are very light across the Bahamas and south Florida this weekend. I expect more moving around east and west with the models over the next few days.

you mean the models going back and forth ...shifting east and west ?

[wxman57]

you mean the models going back and forth ...shifting east and west ?

Yep. Tomorrow, they may trend closer to Florida.

[bvigal]

The official NHC postion, 18.3N 64.6W is right here in the BVI all right.

We have had no wind, and no heavy rains yet, but it's starting to rain again. Radar shows some good squalls moving in... when they hit, we'll have wind. In fact, I can hear it gusting out there now. Sounds like squalls, horizontal rain, LOL.

rats! thought this posted and walked away, came back and it's still here...

[Aric Dunn]

you mean the models going back and forth ...shifting east and west ?

Yep. Tomorrow, they may trend closer to Florida.

sorry i cant read after doing math all day along ...
lol

i like the analogy of a "flag in the wind" for models that far out....

[jlauderdal]

I can't really speak for WXMAN, but from my perspective
BAMS are about worthless right now
Not sure on the Ridge strength right now
Fairly close to the LLC...

I think the high will be strong enough to push this into Florida. That is JMO.

Also, I also believe it is very close to become a deprssion. In the fact the nhc see's it more northward gives it more chance to become a tropical storm.

the first thing i did after i read your post was check your location and that tells me i spend way to much time on this board, lol

[SouthFLTropics]

you mean the models going back and forth ...shifting east and west ?

Yep. Tomorrow, they may trend closer to Florida.

Doesn't suprise me...Flip flopping more than a politician leading up to election day...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bastardi, and I'm not sure I disagree, wonders why Iselle is named and future Fay isn't. Based on satellite presentation

My first birthday as a married man, my wife gave me Uccellinni and Kocins AMS monograph of major winter storms of the Northeast US. I learned more baroclinic weather, aegeostrophic flow, vorticity advection, entrance and exit regions, 850 mb vs surface vs 500 mb lows, warm and cold conveyor belts, from that book than any book I ever read. Plus like twenty case studies!


I am still wondering if Derek's master's thesis is available online, or for low cost...

[jaxfladude]

Whew, now that the models are heading east away from FLA makes me more relaxed, going to really suck(maybe) for some of the islands, hope nothing too serious or deadly (Flooding)...Prayers for all affect or soon to be etc.

by deadly I mean 00000000000000000000 deaths....

But then again the tracks may slide back west...windows wiper effect.

[Aric Dunn]

you mean the models going back and forth ...shifting east and west ?

Yep. Tomorrow, they may trend closer to Florida.

Doesn't suprise me...Flip flopping more than a politician leading up to election day...

while holding a flag flapping in the wind ???

see the flag is just like the models back and forth .. sort of soothing .. like hypnosis's

[Ed Mahmoud]

Based on that ship well North, and recon, when they do start advisories, they'll go straight to Fay. IMHO.

[ConvergenceZone]

wxman57, wow those models really have shifted east, none hitting Florida anymore and a couple curving it northeast away from the US all together....They must be smelling a weakness in the ridge.... While I may not agree, perhaps there will be a weakness. When they all start converging into the same area like this, I'm thinking that they may be on to something...Now, if they stay this way or shift a little more east even, this is fantastic news, compared to the alternative!!!

edit: It's funny, as I"m typing this, I was just watching the weather on tv and they mentioned that right now the general consensus is for the storm to be pulled northeastward way from the US mainland, but he also said that Florida and the east coast should still keep an eye on it... Myself, I think he's a bit too confident on the weakness

[Emmett_Brown]

Has there been a recent quickscat pass... i dont know how often quickscat is released.

[canegrl04]

Based on that ship well North, and recon, when they do start advisories, they'll go straight to Fay. IMHO.

Maybe it will get upgrded late tonight/early morning

[OuterBanker]

Been gone all day, boy this looks like a hurricane now on IR loop. TPC didn't call it though, strange. I assume recon didn't return with a closed system. Also looks like it's heading west. With any luck it will be torn apart by Hisp/DR and not bother anyone. Looks like models still think north by weekend, early week? Just hoping for the best I guess. BTW, also hoping Euro has changed since this am.