ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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KWT
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#3001 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:44 pm

Wouldn't be too surprising Aric, now convection is far closer to that circulation you've been following all day thats probably the one that will go ahead and do something I'd have thought.
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#3002 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:45 pm

the last few frames in IR appear to show deep convection firing over the surface low. I would not be surprised if this thing FINALLY gets called as a TD in the next 12 hours.
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#3003 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:46 pm

radar is still rather disorganized .. but should eventually come around ..
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#3004 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:50 pm

Radar is looking at the mid levels though Aric, that circulation is still probably only a Low level feature for now as the old MLC to the west is still there.
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Re:

#3005 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:51 pm

KWT wrote:Radar is looking at the mid levels though Aric, that circulation is still probably only a Low level feature for now as the old MLC to the west is still there.

True but likely wont be only an llc for long...the mlc appears to be diving sw to meet with the llc. It shouldnt be long. Btw that is some Very deep convection forming over the center...
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Re:

#3006 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:52 pm

KWT wrote:Radar is looking at the mid levels though Aric, that circulation is still probably only a Low level feature for now as the old MLC to the west is still there.

i know what im looking for .. dont worry
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Re: Re:

#3007 Postby cpdaman » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:52 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
KWT wrote:Radar is looking at the mid levels though Aric, that circulation is still probably only a Low level feature for now as the old MLC to the west is still there.

True but likely wont be only an llc for long...the mlc appears to be diving sw to meet with the llc. It shouldnt be long. Btw that is some Very deep convection forming over the center...


exactly and IMO that was what Air force met was talking about earlier this afternoon. any reason tropical storm watches are not out right now? seems there is potential for this to "go to town" around midnite
Last edited by cpdaman on Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3008 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:54 pm

The Reds are expanding.

Image
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Re: Re:

#3009 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:55 pm

cpdaman wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
KWT wrote:Radar is looking at the mid levels though Aric, that circulation is still probably only a Low level feature for now as the old MLC to the west is still there.

True but likely wont be only an llc for long...the mlc appears to be diving sw to meet with the llc. It shouldnt be long. Btw that is some Very deep convection forming over the center...


exactly and IMO that was what Air force met was talking about earlier this afternoon. any reason tropical storm watches are not out right now? seems there is potential for this to "go to town" around midnite

it was me ......
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#3010 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:56 pm

Well you've done a good job Aric so far so no reason to doubt that :D

cheezyWXguy, yep the mid level energy is catching up with the LLC now pretty quickly, as you saw with the energy transferal it can happen pretty quickly.

Deep convection there, probably 50-50 that its upgraded before PR. However chances are it will try and undergo some short term RI once the centers are finally stacked.
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Re: Re:

#3011 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:01 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:it was me ......


I was saying it as well...
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Re: Re:

#3012 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:02 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:it was me ......


I was saying it as well...

yep... and i mentioned that few pages back
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#3013 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:03 pm

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Re:

#3014 Postby Annie Oakley » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:04 pm

HURAKAN wrote:The Reds are expanding.

Image


Hurakan you always provide the strength and majesty of the storm-really impressive. You must have one heck of a computer! But also an eye for beauty.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3015 Postby msbee » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:05 pm

greels wrote:Most folks don't realize that a lot of Providenciales, TCI is below the flood plain.........I am deeply concerned for our populations who live near the shore and won't get word of what is happenning until it is too late.

Another fretful night here :oops:


Gretchen
take care. I hope Turks and Caicos does not get too much rain.
stay safe!
Luis, and others in PR and VI..that goes for you too.
Last edited by msbee on Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3016 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:05 pm

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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3017 Postby BatzVI » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:06 pm

Just looks like we're going to have a very active night....
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3018 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:07 pm

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Re: Re:

#3019 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:07 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:Hurakan you always provide the strength and majesty of the storm-really impressive. You must have one heck of a computer! But also an eye for beauty.


Image

It's my pleasure!
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#3020 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:07 pm

Thats very deep convection there in the middle of that blob, looksl ike the MLC is pretty close behind it and the LLC should be relaly tightening up now we finally have some decent convection near, if not over the circulation.
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