ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Recurve]

That has got to be the most beautiful non-tropical-depression disturbance I've ever seen. The full outflow ring and apparent vortex...oh my goodness, is there any chance this doesn't ever get a surface low?

[Vortex]

radar and surface reports suggest that the LLC is right where the deep burst of convection is at present. If the trend continues I expect a special tropical disturbance statement or an upgrade at 11. Regardless this looks to cross direcetly over the eastern 2/3 of PR.

[KWT]

Your quite right gerrit, I remember there was a tropical wave that once caused huge deaths in this part of the world, if I recall correctly?

Deltadog, I'vbe got a sneaky feeling this will be bursting upon 'landfall' and will probably handle DR ok, may mess it up a touch if it tries to organise before then but not enough to kill it.

[cpdaman]

do any of the islands Cuba / Dominican republic act as a weak sort of magnet for storms (should a storm get close enough) i ask this because i have seen a couple storms move over SE cuba on a NW heading, but then right as they are about 20 miles from emerging off Eastern coast (headed NW) they seem to turn WNW and head over the spine of Cuba (last example being ernesto)

[cycloneye]

I forgot to say that in the Eastern part is the Sierra de Luquillo mountains being El Yunque the tallest at 1500 feet.

[Aric Dunn]

do any of the islands Cuba / Dominican republic act as a weak sort of magnet for storms (should a storm get close enough) i ask this because i have seen a couple storms move over SE cuba on a NW heading, but then right as they are about 20 miles from emerging off Eastern coast (headed NW) they seem to turn WNW and head over the spine of Cuba (last example being ernesto)

thats my tether ball theory..
thing

[Recurve]

I can't say what is true, except two models had this bounding off Hispanola, literally heading into it and bounding right off the coast, so what were they sensing?

[gerrit]

Your quite right gerrit, I remember there was a tropical wave that once caused huge deaths in this part of the world, if I recall correctly?

Heavy rains cause massive mud slides, mainly in Haiti but also in the DR. Because both countries are rather poor, the infrastructure is bad. A tropical wave is enough to create a disaster over there..

[RL3AO]

Your quite right gerrit, I remember there was a tropical wave that once caused huge deaths in this part of the world, if I recall correctly?

Heavy rains cause massive mud slides, mainly in Haiti but also in the DR. Because both countries are rather poor, the infrastructure is bad. A tropical wave is enough to create a disaster over there..

Haiti pretty much deforested their entire country. Now whenever they get heavy rains, they get mudslides very easy.

[cpdaman]

I can't say what is true, except two models had this bounding off Hispanola, literally heading into it and bounding right off the coast, so what were they sensing?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

[gerrit]

I forgot to say that in the Eastern part is the Sierra de Luquillo mountains being El Yunque the tallest at 1500 feet.

I was going to post that but you were faster - that's the view from my front porch.

[MiamiensisWx]

Heavy rains cause massive mud slides, mainly in Haiti but also in the DR. Because both countries are rather poor, the infrastructure is bad. A tropical wave is enough to create a disaster over there..

That's one of my significant concerns, especially with orographic lifting over the elevated terrain on Hispaniola. Even if the system "scrapes" Hispaniola, flooding will be a threat.

[greels]

Most folks don't realize that a lot of Providenciales, TCI is below the flood plain.........I am deeply concerned for our populations who live near the shore and won't get word of what is happenning until it is too late.

Another fretful night here

[cycloneye]

Here it comes!

[Recurve]

I can't say what is true, except two models had this bounding off Hispanola, literally heading into it and bounding right off the coast, so what were they sensing?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

That's right! Saw that earlier and forgot it. There was a real bend into the island in the steering.

[Aric Dunn]

St. croix now has a wnw wind

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TISX.html

[Bocadude85]

St. croix now has a wnw wind

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TISX.html

and what does that mean?

[Aric Dunn]

St. croix now has a wnw wind

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TISX.html

and what does that mean?

potentially there may be a closed low forming .. but we need to wait for a few more observations..

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 142335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS AS WELL AS THE
TURK AND CAICOS...SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[fci]

They should just use the motto.. 'If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then it generally is a duck'

Or

'If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it may be a duck but not necessarily'

or

If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it will be a duck when WE say it is.