ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[hiflyer]

can't the radar be deceptive at a distance?

Yes....great question.....at the distance right now it can see from about 16000 feet up...no low levels...due to curvature of the earth. Additionally radar has a tendency to curve returns at greater distances....make them edges of the display look circular. Lastly any precip in between the radar site and the target you want to look at can soften the return to make it look less than it is.

[HURAKAN]

[shortwave]

Its certainly interesting though I'm convinced circulation is a little to the west of the convection looking at the loops...but its closer to the circulation thats true.

I think this may hit DR as a messy poorly stacked wave still, may need to wait for this to get int othe Bahamas region before it gets its act really on unless it can somehow avoid the major islands to the north.

As of right now that is a decent possibility, but at the least, I'm guessing, it'll have some sort of close contact with whatever may be it's center.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I believe this is a classical case of convection propagation. I also suspected we would observe possible convection propagation, as mentioned by Jay (NEXRAD). As the best upper level divergence and ascent shifts slightly farther southwest, note that thunderstorms are developing much closer to the old LLC. Personally, I doubt we will even observe a relocation, since the stronger thunderstorms will result in stronger low level inflow. GOES visible imagery indicates thunderstorms are now developing directly over the old LLC in the vicinity of 18.5 N 63.4 W. The MLC is still farther northeast, but I believe the initial stages of the critical "stacking" are finally starting to commence. Satellite data indicates the LLC is moving north of due west; when coupled with H7-H85 streamline analysis and the strength of the low level ridging, a track across northern half of Puerto Rico is likely. Down the line, the center may likely "scrape" the NE coastline of Hispaniola, resulting in less land interaction than a direct strike.

All systems are finally "go" for development.

[KWT]

Yep its looking likely its going to have to run into PR, however the fact its bursting means PR probably won't do a huge deal of damage, indeed may allow a new LLC to focus near the northern coast where the friction is stronger. It's hispaniola that could really be a big problem for this system...

Miami, yeah the convection has jumped westwards towards the other center, main energy shift should help that center out somewhat to tighten up but won't have time to do much more till its inland for a little while.

[Vortex]

West wind now at antigua at 7pm





V.C. Bird, AT (Airport)
Updated: 4 min 24 sec ago
79 °F / 26 °C
Light Thunderstorm Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F / 24 °C
Wind: 6 mph / 9 km/h / 2.6 m/s from the WNW

[MiamiensisWx]

The following analyses are NOT official outlooks.

Personally, I believe this is a classical case of convection propagation. I also suspected we would observe possible convection propagation, as mentioned by Jay (NEXRAD). As the best upper level divergence and ascent shifts slightly farther southwest, note that thunderstorms are developing much closer to the old LLC. Personally, I doubt we will even observe a relocation, since the stronger thunderstorms will result in stronger low level inflow. GOES visible imagery indicates thunderstorms are now developing directly over the old LLC in the vicinity of 18.5 N 63.4 W. The MLC is still farther northeast, but I believe the initial stages of the critical "stacking" are finally starting to commence. Satellite data indicates the LLC is moving north of due west; when coupled with H7-H85 streamline analysis and the strength of the low level ridging, a track across northern half of Puerto Rico is likely. Down the line, the center may likely "scrape" the NE coastline of Hispaniola, resulting in less land interaction than a direct strike.

All systems are finally "go" for development.

I strongly expect TS status tomorrow, personally.

This will likely only cross the extreme northern portion of Puerto Rico and "scrape" the coastline of Hispaniola, based on current position, movement, and steering.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Hmmm I think that may also be the case Miami, after that though much depends on exactly where it tracks, into DR and the high mountions and its going to have to stack up real well before hand and have a big burst to come out in good shape, but if it skims the coast then given its stil lgot a broad region of energy it may not do too badly.

[cycloneye]

For those who may not know about the topografy of Puerto Rico,the highest mountains are located in Center PR not on the northern part.

[Aric Dunn]

For those who may not know about the topografy of Puerto Rico,the highest mountains are located in Center PR not on the northern part.

yep ... I have fun when i go to PR
great place

[KWT]

Yep cycloneye yet another reason why PR shouldn't do much damage to a bursting system. FWIW I think weaker systems tend to fair much better over DR/PR and places like that then strong systems with established inner cores.

[Vortex]

For those who may not know about the topografy of Puerto Rico,the highest mountains are located in Center PR not on the northern part.

Thanks cyclone. I look forward to your reports as the weather changes overnight and into friday.

[Derek Ortt]

yes... weaker systems fare better over Hispaniola

Elene in 1985 became a TD over the mountains of E Cuba after running over the mountains of Hispaniola

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yep I've read about that Derek, also became a very nasty system down the line...

Center probably has another 12hrs before it has its first close call to land, however at least its nice and close for recon!

[deltadog03]

I still think this goes just north of DR. Looks like it may scrape it, but not enough to kill it...IMO Also, I guess energy has shifted or is being shifted to where that LLC is...??

[canetracker]

For those who may not know about the topografy of Puerto Rico,the highest mountains are located in Center PR not on the northern part.

Hopefully this system will be kind to PR and only give you the rain you want. I also look forward to your reports. Be safe.

[Derek Ortt]

Yep I've read about that Derek, also became a very nasty system down the line...

Center probably has another 12hrs before it has its first close call to land, however at least its nice and close for recon!

don't need recon now... just check the obs from the islands

[gerrit]

It's hispaniola that could really be a big problem for this system...

I'd rather say that this system could be a big problem for Hispaniola. Remember the more than 3000 people killed because of Jeanne 2004..