ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[tailgater]

are we in an eclipse right now


never mind it finally updated

[KWT]

Hmm the track of Donna doesn't look too far off I suppose though probably weaker...maybe...

Also I have to admit i'm also a little surprised that a LLC hasn't formed in the convection from the MLC, I should think it will do so sooner rather than later though.

[Stormcenter]

I can definitely identify an LLC on surface obs about 140 miles west of the convective blob near 17.7N/63.7W. This is just east of St. Croix, and the reason the plane is already reporting SW winds. The SW winds are from the remnant surface circulation well west of the convection.

It's certainly possible there is no LLC beneath that blob yet. But the way it looks now, it won't be long until it's a TS.

Yes like in the next 5 minutes.

[Brent]

are we in an eclipse right now

No the eclipse is in the early morning hours, after Midnight.

[RL3AO]

are we in an eclipse right now

The eclipse it only at night.

[Stormcenter]

Are we maybe looking at a Donna type track with 92L - midway between GFDL and NOGAPS, perhaps?

Whoa the similarities are pretty creepy.

[cheezyWXguy]

That is an amazing MLC and has been the strongest feature since yesterday.. Once stacked it could be rather scary. The LL pattern still suggests it's out ahead of the MLC a tad imo.. Amazing signature for an MLC. That is weird it hasn't stacked or reformed.

Yeah it is still out in front, but the latest visible imagery shows low clouds on the eastern side beginning to flow into the convection. Its not complete yet, but it looks like at least part of the circulation has begun to form. It shouldnt be long now...

[Gustywind]

are we in an eclipse right now

No in a full moon period especially Saturday night but usualy speaking 3 days before 3 days after ( the day of the full moon) you can feel its effects ( hair , comportements..)

[Extremeweatherguy]

New red burst on IR...

[gatorcane]

new convection firing right within the convection burst from earlier -- its improving by the hour:

[tolakram]

It's going to do a Dolly, and catch 'em with their pants down. This happens because the NHC has painted itself into a "definitions" corner, resulting in the perennial problem of Invests going straight to or almost straight to TS.

Here in the inland we don't call straight line winds tornados just because they do damage. I think you're needlessly bashing the NHC and stirring up trouble where none is warranted. ... and I replied anyway.

[Frank2]

cheezyWXguy,

The bursting seen is not usual in mid or late afternoon, since convection usually begins to wane at that hour, so, that can cause diurnal weakening...

As for any "reds", sure, there are going to be other convective cells forming, but, that's to be expected, since some cells dissipate and others form...

[cpdaman]

Air Force Met - What do you feel the chances of development are?

I would give it a 90% chance. the only reason its not 100% is there is nothing for sure when it comes to tropical wx and the best looking invests have suddenly poofed in the past. I think this one will go once the MLC catches up with the sfc trof/LLC. then its off to the races. I think that will happen today...or at least it should.

AFM thank you for your post's today, but i find it difficult to believe that the MLC will ever catch up to a weak llC/eddy several degrees in longitude to the west, especially when the MLC does not appear to be moving faster than it, perhaps i misunderstood you, but do you think that when a LLC likely occurs (based on your 90% opinion) will it be a new one under the MLC or the weak LLC type thing.

[Aric Dunn]

I can definitely identify an LLC on surface obs about 140 miles west of the convective blob near 17.7N/63.7W. This is just east of St. Croix, and the reason the plane is already reporting SW winds. The SW winds are from the remnant surface circulation well west of the convection.

It's certainly possible there is no LLC beneath that blob yet. But the way it looks now, it won't be long until it's a TS.

hmmm.... ok thats wierd..
umm 17.7n 63.7w

is the same one i have tracking for the pst few hours.. ..

so where are you saying the "remnant" circ is?

so you never answered.. wxman57

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN ALONG
61W/62W WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WELL EAST OF
THE LOW CENTER AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 60W-62W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF THE LOW
CENTER WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 20N59W 21N61W TO 20N63W. NOAA
AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE N
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[KWT]

Yep convection starting to deepen a little once again at a time when yesterday convection was starting to weaken. Surely its only a matter of time before the LLC tucks underneath that MLC or the MLC develops its own brand spanking new circulation.

[tampastorm]

Without an LLC , does anyone have a estimate what the winds are now?

[ConvergenceZone]

While I not it's not officially a tropical depression, the banding features etc on some of the sat pics almost have it it looking like a strong tropical storm...Wow, this storm sure has us fooled with all of the convection/banding etc....Makes it appear more than it actuallly is...

[Lowpressure]

Without an LLC , does anyone have a estimate what the winds are now?

Not to be rude, but it does not really matter, without a LLC it is just a cluster of T-storms. Winds are probably all over the place with each new cell exploding then collapsing.

[sunny]

Look...when you have data you don't need to make an estimate. The data are there. Recon...vis imagery all show nothing is near the convective bob. Radar can fool you (as it is obviously doing)...especially given you are looking at the mid and upper levels of the system.

Science has to have some standards. It is not above making estimates when data are not available...but that is not the case here. Data are available. It is not "some time before a plane is in the area"...a plane is there now and confirming what we see on the vis imagery.

And as far as a definitions corner...we have to have definitions or people such as yourself would be upgrading everything thunderstorm in the tropics that has a little spin to it. Science by its very NATURE is a field of definitions. If you want to delve in an area without definitions...may I suggest you try metaphysics...and stop delving in meteorology.

Air Force Met, thank you (and all of the professional meteorologist) for posting here and helping those of us who do not understand the more complex dynamics of forecasting these systems attempt to understand what is happening while it is happening.