Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Blown Away]

Couple of amateur observations:
1. The Nogaps, CMC, and BAM have 92L going more W. 92L has to be a shallow system on those runs because of all the land interaction.
2. The BAMD and AVNO have 92L with a NE turn at the end run, seems odd for 92L to begin a NNE turn near 28N.
3. The GFS had 92L loop in the Bahamas back into SFL yesterday.
4. With the ridge expected to be building in this may cause 92L to stall near or just N of the Bahamas and loop.

[KWT]

EVen if it does go over Hispaniola its got more then enough time over favorable waters to recover I'd guess.

[gatorcane]

It's quite possible that the long range intensity is overestimated. I think the "major hurricane" talk may be false. Remember that an intensifying strong TS/Cat 1 can be damaging...

Bahamians should be closely monitoring it, as it will intensify over those islands.

the only way I see this not becoming a major is if this runs over Hispaniola

Derek is on board. I agree with that assessment looking at the environmental conditions out ahead of 92L.

[gatorcane]

Euro model puts 92L over Southern Florida at day 6 but weak.

[Derek Ortt]

no model has this pulling north just north of PR

It does not matter one iota if this intensifies into a cat 3 north of Puerto Rico (wont happen)... the steering flow is mainly east to west

[Extremeweatherguy]

Euro model puts 92L over Southern Florida at day 6 but weak.

Is that yesterday's 12z EURO? Today's 12z doesn't come out for a few more hours. The latest EURO, the 00z, shows the system moving just offshore the Florida coast between Monday and Wednesday...

Sunday Evening: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif
Monday Evening: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif
Tuesday Evening: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

[shaggy]

I'm not saying a recurve or due N motion north of PR I am asking if it is a deeper system would a track along the northern edge of guidance be more possible?

[storms in NC]

no model has this pulling north just north of PR

It does not matter one iota if this intensifies into a cat 3 north of Puerto Rico (wont happen)... the steering flow is mainly east to west

So what you just said it will go into Dr and Cuba if any things is left into the gulf to Mexico? if it can only go east or west Or did I miss understand?

[Jason_B]

Well at least the models are looking better for the GOM and maybe Florida, but definitely not a good track for the Bahamas.

[Sabanic]

Well at least the models are looking better for the GOM and maybe Florida, but definitely not a good track for the Bahamas.

Way too early to bank on the models either way. Everyone needs to watch this system in the days to come.

[ronjon]

Well ronjon land won't matter a huge deal unless this deveklop a inner core which it won't have time to and besides looking at the track probably only going to hit northern DR and even then I reckon it will only be overland for about 4-6hrs looking at the models. After that they turn it north and if you note *thats* when the models strengthen this system into a powerful system.

KWT, well IF it rides north of the islands and depends where the LLC actually forms. Steering currents over the next several days are pretty close to due west so its going to be real close. I can see 92L reaching weak TS strength and then moving west down the center of PR, Hispanola, and eastern Cuba before it turns more NW - actually thats what the CMC and UKMET mostly do. Hispanola and eastern Cuba are quite mountainous and would weaken 92L considerably.

[Derek Ortt]

no model has this pulling north just north of PR

It does not matter one iota if this intensifies into a cat 3 north of Puerto Rico (wont happen)... the steering flow is mainly east to west

So what you just said it will go into Dr and Cuba if any things is left into the gulf to Mexico? if it can only go east or west Or did I miss understand?

chances of the GOM have decreased

This MAY go into the DR... if it does not... it looks to be a shoe in major

[sfwx]

A Debby type track maybe?!?!?

[jasons2k]

Well, my concerns with 92L seem to be playing out....I have been much more concerned with this one, even a few days ago when it *seemed* like 93L had the upper hand, I still didn't bother to post in that thread. I initially thought this would hug or impact the islands, needle the FL straits and be a GOM storm. That's still a possibility but it looks more likely that the peninsula itself will be impacted.

The long-term path for 92L is extremely uncertain, especially for an August storm. As we saw with Jeanne, when steering currents collapse, anything can happen. For now, Florida needs to keep a very close watch on this, as there is the possibility here for a major cane to make landfall on the FL peninsula.

**The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.**

[JPmia]

no model has this pulling north just north of PR

It does not matter one iota if this intensifies into a cat 3 north of Puerto Rico (wont happen)... the steering flow is mainly east to west

So what you just said it will go into Dr and Cuba if any things is left into the gulf to Mexico? if it can only go east or west Or did I miss understand?

chances of the GOM have decreased

This MAY go into the DR... if it does not... it looks to be a shoe in major

Derek, what models would you suggest we pay close attention to over the next couple of days? Meaning, which ones are you using to forecast with right now?

[Derek Ortt]

The GFDL and HWRF have seemed more reasonable the last day or so.

I am a bit concerned that they both went with the strong solution

I'm waiting for the MM5s I sent to finish (though they were sent very late today)

[gatorcane]

The GFDL and HWRF have seemed more reasonable the last day or so.

I am a bit concerned that they both went with the strong solution

I'm waiting for the MM5s I sent to finish (though they were sent very late today)

But I'm afraid they have trended west more over peninsula FL (SE FL) especially the HWRF.

[deltadog03]

Thanks derek for that. No matter how strong this gets Intially it will not yank northward cuz of it

[KWT]

Yeah they have trended a touch further west, need to see what todays 12z show though first.

[srainhoutx]

Well, my concerns with 92L seem to be playing out....I have been much more concerned with this one, even a few days ago when it *seemed* like 93L had the upper hand, I still didn't bother to post in that thread. I initially thought this would hug or impact the islands, needle the FL straits and be a GOM storm. That's still a possibility but it looks more likely that the peninsula itself will be impacted.

The long-term path for 92L is extremely uncertain, especially for an August storm. As we saw with Jeanne, when steering currents collapse, anything can happen. For now, Florida needs to keep a very close watch on this, as there is the possibility here for a major cane to make landfall on the FL peninsula.

**The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.**

Agree Jason. Our S FL and Lower Keys interests are getting a bit concerned. Had several calls this morning wanting what my thoughts were. Watching this very carefully.