ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Derek Ortt]

wow, looked at the models page, this is trending more and more offshore...perhaps all land masses will escape from this afterall...A week ago I would have said there's no possible way this would be a fish....(not saying that's guaranteed, but sure is trending in that direction)...

The Bahamas?

[Aric Dunn]

we are looking at center roughly in this area most likely still not terribly well defined but is a little more definable with some distinct bands that have formed.

[KWT]

Yep the convection has got a very good shape to it, classic sign of a upper level high over the top of it, if it can avoid land then its got a pretty decent set-up coming up.

Yep Derek Bahamas are at real risk and even if it does lift up NNW/N/NNE still could put Carolinas at real risk.

[HURAKAN]

[boca]

According to the models the threat has dropped somewhat since yesterday here in S FL. All the spaghetti models are curving it off the Florida coastline for now.

[KWT]

Threat goes down for Florida but goes up for the Carolinas and the Bahamas as well, so we shall see.

Also center now only a little away from the deepest convection, close enough that if a LLC is found it should be upgraded.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, looked at the models page, this is trending more and more offshore...perhaps all land masses will escape from this afterall...A week ago I would have said there's no possible way this would be a fish....(not saying that's guaranteed, but sure is trending in that direction)...

Hey Derek, my bad, you are right, it does look like the Bahamas are in the line of fire before the recurve....Sounds like you agree with me though.... Of course we can't say with absolute certainty that Florida is out of danger, although the local met here on TV did just say that it's looking more and more like this may miss the US mainland due to a weakness in the high pressure.... (still learning)

[HURAKAN]

I remember very clearly that Katrina was supposed to curve right after coming out of Florida and was supposed to make landfall in the panhandle. At the end it was much further west. Point of the story, it's too early. Many factors must come together to give a final outcome.

[MiamiensisWx]

Could someone chime in here and offer me some guidance as to whether or not we are going to get hit with this here in the Turks & Caicos......?

There is nothing forthcoming here in the media as to what the possible threat may be.......

Many thanks

Greels,

The system is clearly intensifying/deepening as the stronger convection enhances low level inflow. Consequently, a new LLC is likely forming near 18.0 N 61.2 W per visible satellite imagery. Based on available data, this system may become TS Fay as it moves just north of due west across the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Based on H5-H85 streamline analysis, my best estimate is that the track may skirt the NE coast of Hispaniola and pass SW of the Turks and Caicos Islands. However, you will definitely experience the effects. Depending on negative interactions with Hispaniola (via subsidence) and its effects on any inner core, the intensity would vary significantly. However, conditions will be quite favorable for intensification over the Bahamas and near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Personally, I believe a moderate/strong TS passing just SW of the Turks and Caicos is very possible; regardless, you should be prepared.

Miami (note that this is not official information from the NHC and other pertinent agencies)

[cheezyWXguy]

wow, looked at the models page, this is trending more and more offshore...perhaps all land masses will escape from this afterall...A week ago I would have said there's no possible way this would be a fish....(not saying that's guaranteed, but sure is trending in that direction)...

Hey Derek, my bad, you are right, it does look like the Bahamas are in the line of fire before the recurve....Sounds like you agree with me though.... Of course we can't say with absolute certainty that Florida is out of danger, although the local met here on TV did just say that it's looking more and more like this may miss the US mainland due to a weakness in the high pressure.... (still learning)

Dont get your hopes up yet for a recurve. Remember how fast the models changed yesterday? They can easily change back again. And until we find a definable center, we wont be sure how credible the models are. Just patience

[alienstorm]

According to the models the threat has dropped somewhat since yesterday here in S FL. All the spaghetti models are curving it off the Florida coastline for now.

I think we need to determine once the LLC forms and see how it sets-up. The CMC is driving it west into the western carribbean. Models change and tropical systems are very unique. Also the ridge is to forecast to strengthen it all comes down to timing.

[KWT]

Also I wouldn't call it a recurve either, the GFDL still has it heading just west of north at 126hrs and I would imagine that whilst the threat has gone down for Florida its far far too early to tell exactly what will do, its going to come close enough that most of the SE states will be in the cone.

[CronkPSU]

wow, looked at the models page, this is trending more and more offshore...perhaps all land masses will escape from this afterall...A week ago I would have said there's no possible way this would be a fish....(not saying that's guaranteed, but sure is trending in that direction)...

Hey Derek, my bad, you are right, it does look like the Bahamas are in the line of fire before the recurve....Sounds like you agree with me though.... Of course we can't say with absolute certainty that Florida is out of danger, although the local met here on TV did just say that it's looking more and more like this may miss the US mainland due to a weakness in the high pressure.... (still learning)

Dont get your hopes up yet for a recurve. Remember how fast the models changed yesterday? They can easily change back again. And until we find a definable center, we wont be sure how credible the models are. Just patience

i was just about to say the same thing, until the center becomes clearly defined, the models may be well off, should know more as the models get more recon info as well

[capepoint]

From NWS MHX (Morehead City NC) moring area discussion...
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK SETTING UP TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SOUTHWEST FLOW. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR EACH
DAY...MAINLY ALONG AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING. MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
BEING RUN BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SYSTEM OUR WAY BY MID TO LATE WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --

[HURAKAN]

Outflow quite impressive.

[Aric Dunn]

the models might say north ... but seriously watch out for a loop..

[CourierPR]

I bet the models will trend back west later on. We need to see a center fix.

[boca]

the models might say north ... but seriously watch out for a loop..

Where do you think it would do a loop?

[dixiebreeze]

Numbers going up:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/1145 UTC 17.9N 60.0W T1.5/1.5 92L

[Lowpressure]

Yep the convection has got a very good shape to it, classic sign of a upper level high over the top of it, if it can avoid land then its got a pretty decent set-up coming up.

Yep Derek Bahamas are at real risk and even if it does lift up NNW/N/NNE still could put Carolinas at real risk.

As long as it does not get too strong, the Carolinas could use some real rain totals. The long term rainfall deficit is getting ridiculous in parts of the Southeast.