Moderator: S2k Moderators
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:looks pretty obviously closed. maybe a litttle elongated, but closed.
MiamiensisWx wrote:The following post is NOT an official prognosis.
Firstly, it appears that a new LLC will relocate slightly farther northeast later today. Note that WV imagery and other data indicates upper level shear has been decreasing, as 92L has passed the shear zone. Note that the outflow boundaries emanating from the western semicircle have vanished, while a poleward outflow channel is developing west of the shear zone (aided by UL divergence). The 300 mb anticyclone is building west to the north of 92L. Additionally, note that the southwesterly low level cumulus (inflow) on the SW side are now shifting to south, possibly indicating the LLC is in the process of relocating slightly farther north and east under the convection. It will be interesting if ASOS/buoy data near the eastern Caribbean begins to support this hypothesis as we enter the morning (light) hours. Obviously, the relocation has not occurred as of now, but I believe it may likely occur today.
Regardless, this one will not miss the islands. Originally, I did not anticipate development until the system passed Puerto Rico; however, I now believe we may observe classification as a tropical cyclone over the Leewards during the late afternoon hours today. Based on the current movement, 92L will likely pass through the Leewards around noon today, and it will likely affect Puerto Rico early tomorrow (i.e. around midnight). Leewards/Puerto Rico will face a threat from localized flooding via heavy precipitation along elevated terrain. Tropical storm force gusts may likely occur in association with the strongest thunderstorms across the northern Leewards and off Puerto Rico.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
wxman57 wrote:TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:looks pretty obviously closed. maybe a litttle elongated, but closed.
I think you need to wait for surface observations to make that determination. You sure can't tell by IR satellite imagery this morning. But it is looking very likely that a TS will form in the next 24-48 hours with nothing to stop further intensification.
wxman57 wrote:TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:looks pretty obviously closed. maybe a litttle elongated, but closed.
I think you need to wait for surface observations to make that determination. You sure can't tell by IR satellite imagery this morning. But it is looking very likely that a TS will form in the next 24-48 hours with nothing to stop further intensification.
and...i can't heard ( when you read it )my friends lol.
jabber wrote:Well according to the Palm Beach Post , Florida has nothing to worry about from 92:
Trio of storms unlikely to hit Fla., experts say
By JASON SCHULTZ
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Three disorganized stirrings in the Atlantic could turn into tropical storms as they approach the Caribbean in the heart of hurricane season, but none is likely to near Florida, National Hurricane Center meteorologists said Wednesday night.
The first tropical wave churned a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, slowly moving west, according to the center's 8p.m. forecast. The center considered the storm a moderate risk to turn into a hurricane, but according to The Weather Channel's Web site, the storm is not expected to strengthen in the near future as it moves over the Leeward Islands.
MiamiensisWx wrote:jabber wrote:Well according to the Palm Beach Post , Florida has nothing to worry about from 92:
Trio of storms unlikely to hit Fla., experts say
By JASON SCHULTZ
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Three disorganized stirrings in the Atlantic could turn into tropical storms as they approach the Caribbean in the heart of hurricane season, but none is likely to near Florida, National Hurricane Center meteorologists said Wednesday night.
The first tropical wave churned a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, slowly moving west, according to the center's 8p.m. forecast. The center considered the storm a moderate risk to turn into a hurricane, but according to The Weather Channel's Web site, the storm is not expected to strengthen in the near future as it moves over the Leeward Islands.
That is incredibly sloppy journalism... wow!
Weatherboy1 wrote:HPC early maps suggest a path over Florida -- with the turn not being as sharp as depicted in some other models. Just food for thought ...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests
