Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[vacanechaser]

very interesting to say the least.... looks like the models are starting to nail it down a bit... the bulk seem to be right at florida and the east coast... should be a good topic of discussion tonight on our show at hurricanetrack.com ..... that euro run is something to be concerned about thats for sure




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MiamiensisWx]

The recent Euro is reflecting a trend that was noted in the operational GFS. Note that the ridging amplifies ahead of the Midwest cutoff low, but the departing shortwave over the Northeast fractures, which causes a weakness in the mid/upper level ridging over Florida. The Euro subsequently "traps" the intensifying TC off the Southeast coast as the fractured s/w weakens and the blocking ridge amplifies. The block (allowing a slow NW drift toward South Carolina/North Carolina), set-up, and favorable swly upper level jet for deepening is not significantly different from Gracie 1959 or Diana 1984, although the ridging is weaker. One of the big questions is 92L's location at the time and its forward speed over the next several days. If the fracturing portion of the shortwave is weaker and dissipates faster, the models would likely depict stronger ridging, maintaining a NW moving threat to south Florida.

Personally, I still believe these models and others are displaying the classical incorrect "east bias" when they pick up on weaker steering currents, which will be present four/five days down the line. It is known that the models initially depict a track farther east (in this type of set-up) than reality when weaker steering currents enter the stage. Reality will likely reveal a track just N of the Greater Antilles, possibly scraping the coastline of Hispaniola.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

They'll obviously be going into the storm pretty regularly now...but what is the upcoming schedule for getting synoptic data? I assume that those flights will be the ones we really have to look forward to, as they will show us how strong that ridge will be, and therefore what is the main steering mechanism for what will probably be a big storm for somebody.

[Meso]

NAM


GFS



From 06z Run...

GFS doing like it has in the past and being total opposite to the other models and showing almost no development

[MiamiensisWx]

12Z/00Z models (today and tonight) will have better data, in my view.

[deltadog03]

Sorry, but the operational runs of the GFS are going to be clueless on this one I am afraid!

[ronjon]

This mornings globals are maybe starting to come into consensus on a turn toward the north east of FL - that's strongly in line with climo. Still, I think there are still some unresloved issues that maybe will be cleared up in a few days. While the consensus seems to point toward a north or right-hand movement east of FL - both the 00Z CMC, NOGAPs, and UKMET bring 92L much further south - south of Cuba or into S FL. The UKMET actually brings 92L into S FL and then turns it west due the building ridge after 5 days. Of course, all the southern tier of models have 92L as a weak system due to land interaction woth Hispanola and Cuba - and this actually may be the more likely situation. Anyway, all the models after 5 days (don't know about GFDL and HWRF since they only run 126 hrs) build ridging over or to the north of 92L. The Euro actually traps a very strong storm under the ridge off JAX for a very unrealistic looking 5-10 days out. Timing and storm intensity are everything - will be model watching the next few days.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agree with you ron. Seems to be quite a few things to still be worked out. Just finished looking at the NWS six day maps and all they show is a stalled out trough well into central TX. And a tropical system over the southern end of FL looks to be moving WNW. Don't know how accurate or updated those maps are though. Everything I have heard is saying a moderately strong high pressure system is going to build in late this weekend and expand west north of FL. Just think as others have said the models are on the east coast bias turning it to quick. This COULD have the setup for a Katrina like track. Before I get jumped on NO I don't think It will blast into New Orleans sometime next week. Just move NW towards central FL then get pushed sw/wsw over FL into the gulf. Once there will obviously turn north at some point just where is anyones guess right now.

[Emmett_Brown]

This mornings globals are maybe starting to come into consensus on a turn toward the north east of FL - that's strongly in line with climo. Still, I think there are still some unresloved issues that maybe will be cleared up in a few days. While the consensus seems to point toward a north or right-hand movement east of FL - both the 00Z CMC, NOGAPs, and UKMET bring 92L much further south - south of Cuba or into S FL. The UKMET actually brings 92L into S FL and then turns it west due the building ridge after 5 days. Of course, all the southern tier of models have 92L as a weak system due to land interaction woth Hispanola and Cuba - and this actually may be the more likely situation. Anyway, all the models after 5 days (don't know about GFDL and HWRF since they only run 126 hrs) build ridging over or to the north of 92L. The Euro actually traps a very strong storm under the ridge off JAX for a very unrealistic looking 5-10 days out. Timing and storm intensity are everything - will be model watching the next few days.

Interesting that as we speak, the center is forming, and the exact location in this case could be a huge factor down the road because land interaction could be a huge deciding factor. Hit land, weaker and west... miss land to the north, stronger and more likely to go poleward (at least IMO)

[Blown Away]

Look at the GFS & GFDL, sharp right then almost due N. I don't buy those tracks. The Frances models did the same thing, for a while the had them coming to the FL coast then a sharp right turn then due N. Anything is possible but that crazy track I don't buy.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Bocadude85]

Keep in mind that a lot of times the GFS over does weakness in the ridge and hence the gfdl follows suite... I do not think we can out much stock into any models until we have a actual center...I still wouldnt be surprised it this passed south of Florida.

[deltadog03]

Regardless of how strong this gets in the short term....The steering is all about to the Due WEST for now.

[Blown Away]

Regardless of how strong this gets in the short term....The steering is all about to the Due WEST for now.

At this point are you in agreement w/ the models w/ 92L turning E of SFL?

[HURAKAN]

430
WHXX04 KWBC 141129
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.1 59.6 290./ 9.9
6 17.7 60.7 300./11.9
12 17.9 62.0 281./12.3
18 18.2 63.4 282./14.3
24 19.1 64.7 304./15.2
30 19.5 66.4 284./16.4
36 20.3 67.6 304./13.8
42 20.3 69.2 268./14.7
48 20.4 70.0 277./ 7.8
54 20.7 72.0 279./19.1
60 20.7 73.5 270./14.1
66 20.6 74.7 269./10.6
72 20.8 75.4 278./ 6.5
78 21.0 76.1 291./ 7.3
84 21.5 76.5 317./ 6.4
90 22.5 76.9 341./10.6
96 23.1 77.4 318./ 7.8
102 24.1 77.4 359./ 9.9
108 24.9 77.7 344./ 8.5
114 25.8 77.6 5./ 8.4
120 26.5 77.6 357./ 7.5
126 27.4 77.8 350./ 9.0

[gatorcane]

TAFB has it on the Eastern shores of Cuba in 72 hours:

[MiamiensisWx]

TAFB has it on the Eastern shores of Cuba in 72 hours:

That's the Turks and Caicos Islands, gatorcane...

[gatorcane]

sorry meant HEADED for the Eastern shores of Cuba, but note TAFB only has it as a weak low not a deep low.

[HURAKAN]

[Meso]

GFDL has a very odd path in the middle of it's run




Both models move it North

[deltadog03]

Regardless of how strong this gets in the short term....The steering is all about to the Due WEST for now.

At this point are you in agreement w/ the models w/ 92L turning E of SFL?

NO