Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[SouthFLTropics]

yup samething it has been doing... I dont think we can really trust the gfs until we have a actual center

I think the GFS might have been out to lunch on this run...seems a to be quite a bit different from the other models with that loop it is starting to show...I have to agree, we will have to wait until a center is defined before we can really rely on any one model. For right now they are all showing a general consensus that it is headed in the penisula's general direction but where it goes after that is anybodies guess...

[ConvergenceZone]

Are the models slowly moving towards this being a potential fish storm??....I was just curious since folks are saying it may miss Florida afterall....Would a trough perhaps carry it out to sea?

[Bocadude85]

It seems there is some sort of a weakness but it fills in before it has a chance to move out to sea.. could meander around a few days before getting pushed back west... kind of reminds me of Frances

[SouthFLTropics]

Are the models slowly moving towards this being a potential fish storm??....I was just curious since folks are saying it may miss Florida afterall....Would a trough perhaps carry it out to sea?

Way to early to tell if it is going to go

Would be nice for us here in Florida but unfortunately I think we are going to have a few tense days ahead of us waiting and watching each model run. If we get within 3 days of a potential strike and the NHC is pointing at us I would pretty much trust their forecasts...they have been spot on in recent years. This far out it's anybodies guess...At times it feels like your banging your head against a wall

[boca]

This run has it south of Bermuda by 150 to 200 miles at 180hrs.

[Bocadude85]

But then is dives sw and comes back into florida... samething it did in the 18z run

[Aric Dunn]

actullly it does a loop and hits florida with another system making landfall right after that lol

[BigA]

But then is dives sw and comes back into florida... samething it did in the 18z run

Could someone post a link to this model or loop? Which one is it? Thanks.

[ConvergenceZone]

This run has it south of Bermuda by 150 to 200 miles at 180hrs.

Wow, really Boca? Hmm, so it may end up being a fish afterall(perhaps)... I remember a few days ago there didn't seem like ANY possibility that this would be a fish, but at least now it could be a fish, but I agree that Florida and the east coast should keep on guard just in case...

:edit:. I should rephrase what I said above... When I said Fish, I meant a fish to the USA...Hopefully it will be a fish to the islands too and miss the Islands to the North, or it won't be too strong by that time and just bring some much needed rain.

[SouthFLTropics]

actullly it does a loop and hits florida with another system making landfall right after that lol

That's not even remotely funny...we've already had our back to back storms back in 04 with Frances and Jeanne. One at a time PLEASE!!! back to back storms

[Bocadude85]

ooz run is trash no way this storm pulls NE into a building high...

[boca]

This run has it south of Bermuda by 150 to 200 miles at 180hrs.

Wow, really Boca? Hmm, so it may end up being a fish afterall(perhaps)... I remember a few days ago there didn't seem like ANY possibility that this would be a fish, but at least now it could be a fish, but I agree that Florida and the east coast should keep on guard just in case...

This run doesn't have it as a closed center yet when ititialized.

[ConvergenceZone]

ooz run is trash no way this storm pulls NE into a building high...

How high is the confidence of the High Building in though? Perhaps that's what we aren't sure about...

[Bocadude85]

every model I have seen builds the high in .....

[Aric Dunn]

cmc is smoking something funny

lol

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

00z GFDL:


WHXX04 KWBC 140528
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 59.3 280./11.1
6 16.8 59.9 295./ 7.1
12 17.0 61.3 280./13.1
18 17.7 62.2 305./11.5
24 18.2 63.8 289./15.4
30 18.9 65.0 299./13.9
36 19.4 66.4 287./13.5
42 19.9 67.9 290./15.6
48 20.2 69.0 285./10.1
54 20.6 70.5 285./14.5
60 20.7 72.2 273./16.5
66 20.8 73.5 276./12.2
72 20.8 74.3 265./ 7.0
78 21.1 75.0 292./ 7.7
84 21.8 75.5 327./ 8.0
90 22.6 75.8 343./ 9.3
96 23.8 76.1 343./12.1
102 24.8 76.6 333./10.4
108 26.1 76.7 355./13.1
114 27.1 76.6 8./10.3
120 28.4 76.4 8./13.0
126 29.6 76.2 9./12.1

[Evil Jeremy]

The new GFDL creates a brick wall past 75w, shooting 92L up north, never crossing 77w.

[Aric Dunn]

see for all we no if the gfdl went farhter out it would likely do the same as the gfs with that ridge building back in .. but that is far out and time will tell

[blp]

00Z NOGAPS has a strong Ridge moves it over Cuba and into GOM.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 85&tau=180

[Meso]