ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[haml8]

So where's Mecklenberg tonight?


If this forms, I'll be eating crow, that's for sure....

I have been monitoring this board since the beginning of this thing like many of you. There are many that will eat crow if this forms. Even some popular Pro mets on here that shifted focus to 93L because it was a greater threat of course it is the tropics so things can change!

[HURAKAN]

NEW TCFA:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

17.2/58.5 appears to be a developing LLC. Don't know if it is strong enough to be found but it appears to be starting.

[Aric Dunn]

NEW TCFA:

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 140300Z AUG 08//
WTNT01 KNGU 140300Z
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 58.5W TO 18.5N 65.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB
IS LOCATED 200NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
MOVEMENT IS WEST-NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KNOTS. ESTIMATED
SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (83F) AND
SHEAR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO DECREASE ENHANCING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 150300Z.//

[RL3AO]

***IF YOU ARE UNDER 18, DO NOT LOOK AT THIS IMAGE OR IT MAY BLIND YOU***

[haml8]

NEW TCFA:

Seems to be following the GFDL and GFS closley.. right??

[Cyclone1]

***IF YOU ARE UNDER 18, DO NOT LOOK AT THIS IMAGE OR IT MAY BLIND YOU***

XDDDDDD

Dear lord, Fay, have some decency!

[HURAKAN]

[haml8]

Dude ... funny disclaimer

[Aric Dunn]

415 images is in .. nice burst again .. same spot..
convection is maintaining its self
so far..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-avn.html

[Zip]

Thanks, Aric. Makes sense.

Any bets on 92L's ultimate TS windfield??

I'll say 95mi. to the NE, then expanding to 140 Mi TS winds NE quad at progged North turn, or when "recurve" begins.

This all means I'm somewhat bullish on this one.

But, Pullzzeee, miss Florida, 92L, go fish!

Zip

[SouthFLTropics]

***IF YOU ARE UNDER 18, DO NOT LOOK AT THIS IMAGE OR IT MAY BLIND YOU***

XDDDDDD

Dear lord, Fay, have some decency!

That is priceless...Gives new meaning to the term "naked swirl"

[cycloneye]

I saved this image.

[boca]

What if it were a male name instead.

[haml8]

Did SHIPS change alot? or did I miss something?

[Honeyko]

I may be wrong about this, but I'm guessing that no CV system approaching from the east has ever hit the Dominican Republic/Haiti, at named status ,if it did not also hit, or go south of, Puerto Rico.

Debby 2000 did

IIRC, Debby's center didn't actually cross a shoreline in the Greater Antilles, although she was close enough to "scrape" northern Haiti. (She was a very fast-moving, easterly surge-uncut storm, and fell apart quickly when her southeast moist feed was interrupted.)

[cheezyWXguy]

***IF YOU ARE UNDER 18, DO NOT LOOK AT THIS IMAGE OR IT MAY BLIND YOU***

XDDDDDD

Dear lord, Fay, have some decency!

That is priceless...Gives new meaning to the term "naked swirl"

Im sorry i dont get it...i dont see a naked llc anywhere. just a strong mlc with a possible developing llc beneath it
sorry im acting like buzz killington from family guy.

[RL3AO]

A system doesn't need to make landfall on Hispaniola to get totally screwed up. It just has to get close.

[Aric Dunn]

my best position is 17.2n 60w

[GeneratorPower]

a little surprised to see the convection weakening so quickly this evening

Looks like it's bouncing back a little. What are your thoughts on whether this latest burst will die off tonight?