boca wrote:Ed Mahmoud wrote:May be heading North at the end, but the GFDL's 500 meter height fields shows the high building back in, despite what looks like a nearly stationary trough. Positively tilted trough, that remains nearly stationary, but seems to weaken/lose amplitude. The positive tilt would suggest SW flow trying to steer 92L out to sea if it got a bit further North, but the ridge shown building in looks like it will keep 92L moving North, and if it keeps building, back to West of due North.
Complicated.
Don't know if GFDL outer grid 500 mb heights are available on a free web site or not.
At what point does it head north. East of Florida?
Turning almost due North at the end of the 126 hour run. But 500 mb heights suggest it might get trapped before it recurves. It is off the East coast of Florida as a major hurricane at the end. Tropical storm force winds just offshore. if it goes due North after, it would miss Florida and head for the Carolinas.
But speculating what will happen beyond the end of a model, which may not in itself be correct, well, it really is more speculation than anything else. 92L still may not develop, although it is looking better, and I'd think anywhere from the Central Gulf to New England and even Canada has to stay tuned. Plus the extreme Northeast Lesser Antilles, and potentially any of the Greater Antilles.
